Russia will send troops into Ukraine only if NATO countries send them there first - expert
Moscow - Kyiv, July 3 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - Moscow will send its troops into Ukraine only if NATO countries send them there first, says Independent Military Review columnist Vladimir Mukhin. If this does not happen, the Kremlin will wait for America to allow it to participate in a peacekeeping operation in Donbass with the participation of “neutral countries,” the expert believes.
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“Moscow is preparing a military scenario aimed at normalizing the situation in the Donbass and Lugansk region solely as a last resort,” writes the NG observer. “Peaceful ways to force Kyiv to abandon what is essentially a large-scale military operation there are still far from being exhausted.”
At the same time, he believes, “Moscow is unlikely to unilaterally make a decision to send its troops to Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to reconvene the Federation Council, expecting tougher sanctions and other anti-Russian actions from the West. Most likely, if the situation in Ukraine continues to escalate, Moscow will persuade the world community to organize a peacekeeping operation in the crisis areas of this country, including, possibly, an operation to enforce peace. If the current Kyiv authorities remain committed to military action, then the situation in southeast Ukraine is unlikely to normalize. The humanitarian catastrophe will grow. And someday the world community will realize this,” Mukhin hopes, obviously together with the Kremlin.
The observer asks the question: how beneficial is the internationalization of the military conflict in Ukraine? “If a possible peacekeeping operation takes place under the UN flag and neutral countries take part in it, then it is unlikely that such a situation will threaten Russia’s geopolitical interests. If NATO countries get physically involved in this conflict, as was the case in Yugoslavia, Libya and other conflicts, then, most likely, Moscow will react harshly,” he believes.
It is precisely for this case that the Kremlin keeps mobile paratrooper units in full combat readiness, he believes. “They can be transferred to any conflict area of Ukraine within three days. This is a possible option, but, of course, expensive both financially and politically. But when it comes to geopolitical interests, the Russian leadership, as a rule, does not focus on this,” the expert believes.
“How correct this position is, apparently only time will judge,” he says.
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