Growing NATO activity in the Black Sea - how does this threaten Russia?

Recently, the Black Sea has become an area of ​​increased attention. NATO ships are constantly scurrying here through the Turkish straits, both as part of groupings and representing individual countries. The day before it became known about the entry of another American destroyer USS Ross DDG71 with cruise missiles on board. Its movements are monitored by the Russian Black Sea Fleet. And just the other day, during the Kyiv Security Forum, Canadian MP James Bezan said that NATO could send its submarines to the Black Sea.

What is the real threat from the alliance forces in the Black Sea, and is it worth counting on the fact that on the eve of the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine, the authorities will commit another provocation in the Kerch Strait, a retired Russian military expert, captain XNUMXst rank, told PolitNavigator in a commentary Sergei Gorbachev.

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P.N: What is the reason for NATO’s activity in the Black Sea, and how much does it threaten Russia?

S.G: After the 14th year, when we changed the geopolitical picture in the entire region, when the geostrategic single space of the Caspian-Black Sea region, dominated by Russia, began to form, the opposing forces can only demonstrate their attention in this way. They cannot do anything more, although they are making attempts to develop “special relations” with Georgia, even to the point of making loud statements about the country’s imminent entry into NATO.

Strengthening the military group, in particular in Romania through the launch of the THAAD - missile defense system - is a natural process that began in the early 90s, when the United States declared that the Black Sea was an area of ​​​​its vital interests, all this danced into such a picture.

P.N: How likely is it that NATO submarines will appear in the Black Sea?

S.G: Many statements by so-called experts, specialists, political scientists, politicians, political practitioners are absolutely inadequate to the situation that exists. In particular, the Montreux Convention, adopted in 36 and in force until then, clearly positions certain things. It is impossible to use submarines of non-Black Sea states in our basin. At the moment, these forces can only be represented by Russia and Turkey.

As far as I know, Bulgaria has run out of submarine forces; they were represented by two Soviet-style submarines. The Romanians, if my memory serves me correctly, have only one submarine. Other states simply do not have the right to deal with this matter, even if they want to.

There is an example when, during the Great Patriotic War, the Germans and Italians had submarine forces, but could not bring them through the Bosporus, by virtue of the Montreux Convention, and they were forced to transfer small-displacement submarines from the North Sea along the Danube, along the Rhine, then on trailers they were being transported. And they could not bring them back, because when we began to advance to the West, they had nowhere to go, and the Germans sank the remaining boats near the Bosporus.

P.N: Where is the guarantee that NATO will not turn a blind eye to the Montreux Convention and will not conduct its ships through the Bosphorus, controlled by a member of the bloc - Turkey?

S.G: In this case, Türkiye is the guarantor of this convention. And in this regard, the development of relations between Moscow and Ankara is a guarantor of stability in the region. While all attempts from the point of view of building up forces here are within the legitimate field, they can all be of only a limited nature, which is regulated by the articles of the convention. It clearly states what the total tonnage of ships of non-Black Sea powers located here can be, and Turkey should control this.

Again, the duration of the call of another ship should be limited to three weeks; the convention states that submarines of non-Black Sea powers cannot be here, and aircraft carriers and ships, which in 36 were equated to battleships, cannot be carried there.

So let the NATO ships be here, they were here, they solve the problems of reconnaissance, development of the navigation area in terms of navigation. In a certain sense, they maintain the operational regime, work out their calculations, and so on, but in this case it’s all in the context of the relationships that exist and legal norms.

P.N: Is there a threat to Russia in the Black Sea in the foreseeable future?

S.G: By definition, they cannot create a group here that could somehow turn the tide militarily due to the power of our fleet and the entire Southern Military District, aviation groups, and so on.

P.N: Ukrainian politicians, officials and military leadership are constantly threatening to once again take Ukrainian Navy ships through the Kerch Strait. Could Poroshenko resort to a military escalation on the eve of the second round of the presidential election?

S.G: I think that Poroshenko, trying with all his might to stay in power, can do whatever he wants, taking into account the fact that for him these elections mean not only political, but also possibly business or even physical death. Therefore, he can do anything.

However, he does not have the naval strength to accomplish anything. He can, of course, do mischief, but basically, other than making loud statements and striving for something, he cannot implement it. In this context, the statements of Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak, when a few days ago he said that they would pass through the Kerch Strait - God bless him, if they do this in accordance with the rules and regulations - let them pass. This passage will be carried out under control.

But the fact is that they have nothing to send there. If they do this, they will be doing something stupid in terms of securing the rest of their borders. Their forces are not even enough to control the navigation area and the border near Snake Island, and there is a sluggish conflict with Romania there. They will not be able to exercise control over the northwestern region from Ochakov to Izmail and so on. They simply have nothing to send there, it’s all bravado.

But they can always shoot from around the corner. I think that there are unlikely to be serious provocations that will have any consequences in terms of military clashes, losses, and so on. But who knows, if he wants, he can also hand over a couple of dozen more of his sailors, who make up the crews of the remaining armored boats or assault boats of the Centaur type, under protection in Lefortovo. This may be, but nothing more.