Rostislav Ishchenko: Both Catalonia and Novorossiya have prospects
Both Catalonia and the Donbass republics have prospects for gaining independence and its recognition, political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko told PolitNavigator.
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“Catalonia certainly has prospects. I would even say a very good prospect, because the Spaniards did everything to ensure that the referendum not only took place, but also gave 90% in favor of independence.
Now something definitely needs to be done about this. Either negotiate or fight. As European practice shows, if they start fighting, then independence comes faster. If they start to negotiate, then it doesn’t matter whether it comes sooner or later.
Another thing is that it can be designed in such a way that Spain does not fall apart. But this requires long and complex negotiations. He will negotiate - probably, we can still agree on some kind of Spanish confederation, and if forceful pressure continues, sooner or later it will come to a shootout, and then independence will already exist de facto...
Even if a scenario similar to the Ukrainian one develops in Catalonia, this will not happen in just one year. By then, the problem with Donetsk and Lugansk may resolve itself. Independence of this kind is recognized not by precedent, but by fact.
In fact, the DPR and LPR are already independent, but they do not control their entire territory; they were proclaimed within the boundaries of the regions. The DPR and LPR themselves are now not interested in having their independence declared and accepted within the borders of the territories they control,” Ishchenko said.
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