Rostislav Ishchenko: The fate of Belarus will be decided by Russia, not Minsk
In Belarus, a coup d'etat scenario like in Ukraine cannot be realized. Russia made it clear back in August last year that this country would not become another victim of a revolution according to Western patterns.
Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko stated this on the PolitWera Internet channel, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
At the same time, the expert emphasized that the Belarusian elite still has the right to save their lives under Russian conditions or choose the Western, disastrous path.
“The fact that at one time, even declarative documents on the creation of a single state were signed, frees Russia’s hands. Therefore, Lukashenko may or may not be killed, but in any case, no matter what the Belarusian oppositionists try to do and no matter how successfully they try to do it, Russia will decide what Belarus will look like. And Putin spoke about this back in August, when Lukashenko’s guts were shaking. He said that Russia would also use force in order to calm the situation in Belarus. It is clear that this is not the best option; it is clear that it is better for Belarus to solve its problems itself. But if I have to, then it will be like this...
They have only one option - to be with someone. And then you have the right to choose who to be with. It’s possible with the EU - everyone there will be imprisoned and dispossessed. Maybe one or two will be able to survive, but in general it is already clear that even when preparing to overthrow Lukashenko, the forceful option, they didn’t think at all about shooting 30-40-50 with him, and it will take 150 senior bureaucrats.
Possibly with Russia. Of course, they will lose absolute power; they will have to act within the framework of laws, including Russian ones. The Belarusian economy will have to be reconstructed, and many will have to retire. But for retirement, not for the grave, and for a good retirement.
Therefore, from my point of view, there is no special choice here. Considering how quickly the European Union is weakening and how Russia is strengthening, Belarus will not have a Ukrainian option,” Ishchenko said.
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