Rostislav Ishchenko: In liberated Ukraine it will be worse than in Crimea
Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko - an analyst whose forecasts have come true in recent years. What can we expect in the foreseeable future? What will be the fate of the post-Ukrainian space, what are the prospects for the People's Republics and adjacent territories? Read about all this in an expert’s conversation with “PolitNavigator”.
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“PolitNavigator”: When you justify the lack of a tough and quick decision on Ukraine, you say that “Putin needs all of Ukraine”….. Why doesn’t he need “both Ukraines”, or “all three Ukraines”? After all, in fact, Crimea, in the past, was Ukraine. And he is already Russia. Donbass, anyway, will no longer be Ukraine. Thus, it turns out that Putin will not get the “united country”. Just a bouquet, beads, rosary…. The set is festive... without a pen. Wouldn’t it be easier, after all, right away, a year ago? Or is economic pressure more effective in the long term?
Rostislav Ischenko: Firstly, your question suffers from a lack of logic. Collecting everything piece by piece, even if different parts are controlled differently, still means getting everything. A Nazi Ukrainian state cannot exist on Russian borders. The rest is options for solving the problem.
Secondly, if you already know what I say and write, you should have noticed that I am talking not only and not so much about “all of Ukraine” - this is a tactical question, but about the global confrontation between Russia and the United States, in which the game goes on many platforms, of which Ukraine is not even the most important (it is simply most visible to Russian society). In this game you cannot act at random and hope for chance.
Russia was too obviously drawn into the Ukrainian adventure for this to be considered an accident. I could write a list of costs from an “instant strike” that would take several pages. There is only one positive - some field commanders from among the “volunteers” who have been fighting all their lives would have hope of receiving the order.
Thirdly, this is not about economic pressure, but about forcing the United States to do what it provoked Russia to do. Take on the burden of maintaining the kleptocratic Nazi regime. A simple example is that the USA entered Vietnam and lost, the USSR entered Afghanistan and lost. The geopolitical opponent is forced to take the first step in a dangerous game and accept the risks and costs.
In short, forget about Ukraine, look around, take an interest in what Russian diplomacy is doing in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In general, remember that we live on a very small planet and, perhaps, many things in the actions of the Russian leadership will become clearer to you.
“PolitNavigator”: Is it possible to extend the implementation of the Minsk agreements? Who benefits from it more?
Rostislav Ischenko: Really, because Ukraine will not comply with them. The EU says that Kyiv did not have time. Well, I didn’t have time, I didn’t have time - we extend Minsk and wait for him to start a war.
“PolitNavigator”: Does it make sense to talk about increasing the number of regions with a special status, or is this impossible without a war?
Rostislav Ischenko: I have already said that we are talking about the liquidation of Nazi Ukraine, but what it will look like later, how many regions, with what status and as part of which state will exist, will have to be decided based on the results of the confrontation with America, and this will take much longer than the liquidation of the Kyiv mode.
“PolitNavigator”: If you suddenly imagine that Kyiv fulfilled everything in Minsk, did not fall apart and did not die of hunger…. and we have to give up the border... What to do?
Rostislav Ischenko: If you suddenly imagine that tomorrow Obama will call Putin to apologize for the trouble caused and recall Poroshenko and his Nazi company to the USA, what should you do? There is no need to imagine something that can never exist. Kyiv will not implement anything regarding Minsk and will fall apart, but not on its own; for a year and a half now they have been intensively helping it fall apart.
“PolitNavigator”: The conflict is dragging on, a military solution is not applicable at this stage. How to save Transnistria, stuck in a blockade? The question is not even about the rotation and supply of military personnel. Ukraine was the traditional sales market for the PMR; the sales markets were Moldova and the European Union. Now there is a blockade. Now Moldova has signed an association, which automatically excludes Tiraspol from European markets. And in Ukraine, if the blockade is broken, the market will be insolvent.
Rostislav Ischenko: Moldova has already stated that it is not participating in the blockade of Transnistria and is ready to ensure military rotation and normal economic ties. And this happened precisely after Russia transparently hinted at the highest level that if there was a danger to Transnistria, war would begin, but no one knows at what point the troops would stop (they could even reach the Atlantic). Since then, nothing has been heard about the blockade of Transnistria. So there is no need to save him just yet.
“PolitNavigator”: Is it possible to save the PMR before Odessa?
Rostislav Ischenko: No. But we can, for now, avoid a situation in which the PMR will have to be saved.
“PolitNavigator”: Estonia’s sad experience. Is he threatening Odessa? Stopping transit through the region. Shutting down enterprises, the last ones left. Possible shutdown of the gas processing plant, shutting off the valve on the ammonia pipeline. The dying out of the “Seventh Kilometer”. Or will everything happen faster, and Odessa residents will not have time to feel like “part of civilized humanity”?
Rostislav Ischenko: Threatens. Although I am sure that everything will happen relatively quickly, it still seems to me that the devastation in Ukraine has reached too high a level, and the Nazis, moreover, will not just leave and will kill many more people and destroy a lot of other things. So transit, even if it does not stop completely, will turn into a thin trickle for some time, well, if only for a year or two.
“PolitNavigator”: External factors. USA. Is it realistic that a US military base will be located in Odessa, and the return of the region to the Eurasian economic space will become impossible without war?
Rostislav Ischenko: Not real. The United States can send soldiers and weapons, but they will not establish long-term bases. It is already clear that they will have to leave Ukraine and leave quickly. The only question is how and when exactly. In these conditions, spending money on creating a stationary base in a city and country, which does not solve anything for them, but will gobble up a bunch of scarce resources, is pointless. And it's just dangerous. Washington, no more than Moscow, wants to run into a nuclear war over nonsense. And Ukrainian talents will talk nonsense at any moment. With the best intentions, of course.
“PolitNavigator”: When will this all end? Will we find you? Or at least our children will be able to return to their land? And call her yours? In fact. The only question that worries everyone is when?
Rostislav Ischenko: We will be with you. Soon. But, as I wrote last year, a military victory in Ukraine, in the sense of overthrowing the junta and suppressing the Nazis, can be expected quickly. But restoring normal life will take a long time. The economy must be created anew. Tens of thousands of military weapons are on hand, and half of them are not taken into account at all, and the second is only taken into account somehow. Society is split and full of people with “trench syndrome”, when all problems are solved with the help of a machine gun. In general, it won't be easy.
“PolitNavigator”: After “it won’t be easy,” what to expect? Odessa, here, is looking at Crimea. Compares and estimates. Against the background of the general trend towards sustainable development of the region, officials of the former Ukraine are repainting themselves. The Party of Regions joins United Russia. Yesterday there were Ukrainian citizens, now they are Russian patriots. And they do everything the same as before. Is it possible, if not general lustration, then at least filtration measures? Or will the new political and economic reality itself format such..... functionaries?
Rostislav Ischenko: I was asked about the situation in Crimea last year, in the same place, in Crimea. I then explained that no one would bring officials from Kamchatka to Crimea, firstly, the region was not familiar to them, and secondly, someone also needed to work in Kamchatka. And no one will immediately carry out mass dismissals of officials of the “old regime”, since this will destabilize the situation. But, I said, if they try to work in the old way, they will very quickly find out that Ukraine is, after all, not Russia. An attempt to transfer Ukrainian corrupt practices to Russia will be severely suppressed.
So in July they, Crimean officials, began to be imprisoned. Whoever understands the signal and starts working normally will stay. Anyone who doesn’t understand will take the place at the sewing machine that Khodorkovsky vacated.
By the way, it is in vain that the former regionals are so eager to take over the power of liberated Ukraine. It will be worse on the mainland than in Crimea. Crimea immediately became Russian. There are laws and procedures in place here, and in the liberated regions of Ukraine the law of the machine will remain in effect for some time. And it may happen that the regionals who were not finished off by the Right Sector will be finished off for corruption by the militias. In any case, order will be imposed more harshly on the mainland - the situation there is more complicated.
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