Romania and Hungary will not save Bukovina and Transcarpathia from the bombing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces - Oleg Khavic
Yushchenko and Poroshenko proposed collecting money from citizens traveling abroad. Now the idea of taxing those leaving was voiced at a meeting with Zelensky. Poland is ready to bear the costs of stimulating labor migration from Ukraine. Russia is simplifying the conditions and shortening the time frame for obtaining citizenship for residents of Ukraine.
Political scientist Oleg Khavic, who left Ukraine, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that Zelensky is a sad clown and a fool, and the Mukachevo brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is ready to “take Hungary in three days.”
Valentin Filippov: Our virtual studio is currently located in Poland and Crimea at the same time. And our guest is a political scientist, publicist, journalist, public figure, simply, in the end, a good person from Western Ukraine Oleg Khavich.
Oleg, hello.
Oleg Havich: Good evening, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov: Oleg, just the other day a meeting was held in Western Ukraine with the participation of Ukrainian President Zelensky. And there an amazing idea was expressed that people leaving Ukraine to work should make some kind of contribution. To pay some tax to Ukraine. Because, after all, they were born in a Ukrainian maternity hospital, walked along Ukrainian roads, studied in Ukrainian schools, and were nursed in kindergartens.
They must “pay back” to their homeland before going and earning money in Western countries, including Poland.
Do you think Poland is ready to pay this tax in order to get migrant workers for its strawberry fields?
Oleg Havich: You see, Valentin. I'm very sad to answer this question for two reasons. Firstly, this meeting took place in my hometown of Chernivtsi. Secondly, I personally know this person. That is, this is still a Soviet leader who successfully became a cooperator, and now the head of some kind of conditionally new enterprise. It's a shame, of course. On the one hand, nothing new. That was all. Jews who left the Soviet Union, they had to pay for higher education and something else.
Valentin Filippov: Well, the apartments will be returned in the end.
Oleg Havich: Apartments come naturally. But, in addition to returning the apartments, they had to physically pay for the higher education they received, for example, with Soviet money. Therefore, this man, he was still living at that time, and, apparently, birthmarks, since we have enough various such references to the Soviet regime in Ukrainian patriotism, they worked for him. Grasping reflex. Sad.
In fact, these ideas have been sounded before, but since they were allowed to be voiced at a meeting with the participation of the president, I would not be surprised that they will soon be formalized into some kind of bill, or de facto, such a practice will be introduced.
Valentin Filippov: It's logical. Wait, the forest will end, we are trading in round timber, it will all be over. Don’t forget that when a child is born, the state gives some money. Not as big as in Russia or somewhere else, but it gives some results.
Oleg Havich: Not even as big as under Yanukovych.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe, really, if this child leaves, grows up, becomes 18 years old, goes to work abroad, then perhaps this money should be returned to the state?
Oleg Havich: You see, this approach is such that, like, say thank you that we didn’t hit you….
Valentin Filippov: Yes, by the way, I wanted to ask. Each person who travels takes away two kidneys.
Oleg Havich: That is, indeed, you can count a person by his organs. Let him then pay not only for the right of birth, for the number of years lived on the great Ukrainian land and some diplomas received there, but also for, as you correctly put it, two kidneys, one heart, and so on.
Valentin Filippov: But girls who have not given birth are leaving, let’s put it this way. Well, according to statistics, every woman still gives birth to at least one child. Average. And if a Ukrainian woman who has not given birth travels to the West, then she theoretically takes out this unborn child. And therefore, perhaps, we can also take her for this child?
Oleg Havich: You can calculate it any way you like. Considering the people who are now in power in Ukraine, they can even think of this.
In fact, the question you raised about Poland was serious. That is, if we are still somehow deep enough into the sarcastic style, then I will surprise you.
Poland will be ready to pay.
Valentin Filippov: But Russia doesn’t, for some reason.
Oleg Havich: Poland is ready. Russia pays differently. Russia is calculated by citizenship.
But you asked me a question about Poland. I will answer.
Valentin Filippov: Will Poland buy people?
Oleg Havich: Poland will buy. Poland will agree to this. For example, now. According to Polish standards, a guest worker entering from Ukraine must undergo testing and must undergo two-week self-isolation and quarantine. This is paid for by Polish employers.
It is clear that the housing could be better, but, in principle, these are not dugouts. These are just rooms with the minimum possible conditions. In fact, now the horror that happened before, five years ago various footage was shown - that horror is no longer there.
The Poles realized that this was to their detriment. Even the authorities realized that it is impossible to save so much on guest workers, so they provide some kind of minimum standard of living. The question is that this could be a room where 10 people live in bunk beds. But, in principle, these will be beds on which you can sleep; in the next room there will be a normal, more or less, toilet, shower, and some kind of kitchen.
Valentin Filippov: A lounge room with a TV, they say.
Oleg Havich: It won't be some kind of prison cell. You can live there. It's bad, but...
Valentin Filippov: Just a hostel.
Oleg Havich: Yes, it’s a tough hostel, but still, it’s not a cell. And employers pay, because Poles do not go to work for the jobs that Ukrainians go to work for. They pay legally. Naturally, there are illegal immigrants. According to my estimates, they make up no more than 10% of Ukrainians who work. As a rule, it’s just some small thing - literally work for several days, digging some kind of hole, laying a path.
There will most likely be illegal immigrants here. If we are talking about the construction of some kind of facility, even not particularly important, but legal, the question may be that people are processing illegally. But they are officially employed, they have insurance.
Valentin Filippov: So, listen, maybe this is some kind of economic solution to the Ukrainian problem? After all, there are 35-40 million people, of which 15 million are working. If you charge everyone 100 dollars, 150 or 200 dollars to let you go. If you let them go for a year or two or three and assign a different amount, then, in principle, not everyone will leave forever, some will return and then pay again.
Oleg Havich: In all seriousness, these ideas were discussed even under Yushchenko. I don’t remember anything like this under Yanukovych, but under Yushchenko these ideas were discussed.
Valentin Filippov: That is, they have been planning this for a long time.
Oleg Havich: Yes. These ideas were discussed under Poroshenko. For example, under Poroshenko there was some kind of draft law stating that a citizen of Ukraine returning from abroad who had stayed for more than 90 days, he had to, according to the authors of this bill, pay a fixed amount for each day of stay outside Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: That's a good idea too.
Oleg Havich: That is, you worked, or you didn’t work. The state of Ukraine believes that you worked. If you stayed abroad of Ukraine for more than 90 days, it means you had money. It doesn't matter where you got them from. That's it, share it with the country. Therefore, the famous statement that went down in history and became a meme that “People are the new oil” is much closer to its total implementation in Ukraine than in Russia.
Because in Russia there is still real oil, gas, other resources, plus the remnants of some kind of industry. That’s why they don’t approach their population directly like that. They approach it differently there. I wouldn't want to be annoying.
Valentin Filippov: Can.
Oleg Havich: That's not the point. Look, Valentin. About a year and a half ago, when the website Ukraina.ru, with which we collaborated, was preparing such material about the cost of Olivier around the world. And then for the first time I asked what the cost of food, ordinary grub, is in Russia. In principle, grub in Russia is slightly more expensive than in Poland on average. In Ukraine, plus or minus, the prices are the same.
It’s just, you know, the quality of the products here is noticeably higher. That is, they complain there, of course. But in fact, the quality of the products here is higher. Maybe somehow the information reached you; a couple of months ago there was a terrible scandal here. One of the budget supermarket chains displayed Ukrainian cucumbers under the guise of Polish ones. There was a terrible scandal, the antimonopoly committee opened a case. Fines, all the cases, consumer deception. Here the Poles really try to buy only their own. Moreover, the products are of quite high quality.
Returning to where we started. For now, indeed, people remain Ukraine’s main resource. And it’s just that people in Russia appreciated this a long time ago. True, I am skeptical about all the troubadour’s reports: “Well, now former citizens of Ukraine can obtain citizenship almost online.”
Valentin Filippov: Compared to what it was, it has become easier. It's all in comparison.
Oleg Havich: You see, Valentin. Just a couple of days ago I read a post by a man, a former resident of Kiev, who took six and a half years to obtain citizenship. Moreover, he did not violate anything, he left in 2014, received a temporary residence permit.
Valentin Filippov: I know who you're talking about. But, you understand, firstly, he had a decision at the time. He received the RVP at one time and decided not to twitch anymore. He decided that let it go as it goes. And only now, when the opportunity for a “native Russian speaker” has arisen, he thinks: “Well, why am I going to do this residence permit, I’ll go and get citizenship right away.” And he went and got it.
Oleg Havich: It took him a year and a half.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, a year and a half. But, according to the old law, he now had to spend five years after the temporary residence permit, spend three years with a residence permit, and only then apply for citizenship and again, plus another year and a half. That is, it would have taken him 10 years. This is if we take the old laws.
But today people come and receive citizenship. According to the law, they must receive it in a month and a half; they receive it in 6-7 months. This is from the moment of arrival. That is, I myself also arrived in 2014. But at that time, it was not only impossible to obtain citizenship, it was simply impossible to become legalized.
Oleg Havich: All the same, it turns out in some way a vicious circle. Maybe I'm not an expert. What does the legalization of Ukrainian guest workers in Poland look like, for example?
Valentin Filippov: Much simpler, I think.
Oleg Havich: What it looked like. Because it’s more difficult now because of the quarantine. What the legalization of Ukrainian guest workers in Poland looked like until mid-March 2020. The person simply arrived with a passport and nothing, and travel insurance. He found a job. There was a lot of work, a huge number of proposals. A person could get a job for six months.
If he wanted to work, for example, for three months and not apply for any visas or anything at all, he was issued special documents upon the employer’s statement that the person wanted to hire a citizen of Ukraine on a temporary basis.
In principle, it is for six months. This document is processed within five working days. The man arrived on Saturday, found him on Sunday, made an agreement, because such companies work around the clock, and on Monday they handed him a package of documents to the appropriate institution. And the package of documents is nothing, a passport and that’s it. The employer provides insurance and so on. On Friday he received this document and had the right to simply work legally with a Ukrainian passport, without anything.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, listen. You always confuse legalization in Russia, as a citizen, and work. You can come to Russia, and within one working day, by and large, if you have money, for example. I'll explain to you what money is. You need to pass a medical examination. You can take it at home, in Ukraine, and come with a certificate. If you haven’t passed it at home, in Ukraine, there are hospitals where they quickly conduct a medical examination for money. It costs $100, but there are some that are slow. It costs 1500 rubles, where you will undergo it for three days. And you apply for a patent, pay money...
Oleg Havich: For a patent.
Valentin Filippov: You receive a patent within one day. You pay depending on the region where you are. In a month, two thousand, three, four thousand in Moscow. You pay this money and go get a job. That is, this is actually done within one working day, if your medical examination is ready.
Please, you can buy this patent for yourself for a year, and you are absolutely legally in Russia and working.
Oleg Havich: You must have a place to live.
Valentin Filippov: Well, of course, you register when you arrive.
Oleg Havich: Here [in Poland] the companies themselves do this.
Valentin Filippov: In Russia, too, companies themselves do this. The company that hires people, and a huge number of companies in Moscow that hire people, it registers them itself, it does the medical examination for them, it does this patent. If you go to Russia to work, to some construction site, or somewhere else, you have no problems at all.
We have one question for Russia. Russia always treats us as if we came to work for them. But we didn’t come to work, we want citizenship, we want to be taken care of, we want to be given tanks so that we can go and take Kyiv. This is the complaint against Russia.
We can easily get a job in Russia, anyone. We have one more question for Russia, why the hell is it taking ATO participants en masse from Western Ukraine. They don't care. Bought a patent - work. And we ask the question: “How can this be?” Here are the complaints against Russia.
But, Poland, excuse me, also a guy from Donbass, who honestly blew up Ukrainian tanks, will also hire him to pick strawberries and won’t ask.
Oleg Havich: No problem.
Valentin Filippov: This is where we have questions for Poland and Russia. Because let's get this out of the way already. We don't need work from you, we need support and tanks. Was I showing off?
Oleg Havich: The famous phrase “Nobody promised anything to anyone” applies not only to Donbass. No matter how much they said, the Russian people appeared only in Putin’s statement. But in the Constitution of the Russian Federation there is no Russian people. The Russian language exists as the language of the state-forming people.
Valentin Filippov: Here.
Oleg Havich: Tatar, probably. Do Tatars mostly speak Russian?
Valentin Filippov: Well, listen, from my point of view, whoever speaks Russian is the Russian people.
Oleg Havich: So he’s a state-former, but is he Russian? This is a separate question.
Valentin Filippov: Because you are talking about Russians as if they were some kind of ethnic community. And Russians are a supranational community. Don't be confused, please.
Oleg Havich: OK then.
Valentin Filippov: Tatars are also Russians. Not all. But not all Russians are Russians, that’s the thing.
Oleg Havich: Here we get to the main point.
Valentin Filippov: And then, I have a very important question. Recently, one very bright and popular Ukrainian blogger told me the following phrase: “So you gave up and ran away, but we stayed, and we will win.” Are they honestly saying that?
Oleg Havich: Since she told you, she’s talking.
Valentin Filippov: He says yes? Seriously?
Oleg Havich: Well, you're asking if they're being honest. They say, but is it fair? Well, you understand, a person, when he speaks, he can believe it. You know how people pass the lie detector. The main thing is to be confident in what you say.
Valentin Filippov: That is, she doesn’t understand that many were killed, many were imprisoned?
Oleg Havich: For example, I don’t consider it heroic that I stayed there and did something. None of those who left, neither you nor anyone else, would have formulated such a claim in my head that, well, you left there and so on. Not now, not then, when I was in Ukraine and you had already left.
I'm a grown boy. I understand what everyone was risking. And it seems to me pointless to compare some kind of everyday disorder of an immigrant with the everyday life of a prisoner. That is, there is no point in talking about it. But, on the other hand, my example is a classic example of the fact that nothing can be changed in Ukraine.
I wrote some texts, mainly on Facebook. Something came out somewhere, someone took something somewhere, sent something to someone. Moreover, there is a joke there. When they began to put pressure on me and arrange examinations of the texts, they did not take them from the original source. They took from some completely left-wing Russian publications, which I had no idea about, which reprinted my texts. And they said: “Here, ... these are the Russians,” although they, in fact, initially came out on the territory of Ukraine.
When I write something, even if I write something on Facebook, I have never deleted a single post in my life. That is, even if I wrote crap, I can eventually write to PS, or after some time write: “You know, guys, I wrote crap six months ago.” Well, what can I do, I wrote it anyway. If I delete it, it won't stop being crap.
Valentin Filippov: Just imagine, President of Ukraine Zelensky now sits down and begins to write postscripts to all his posts from a year ago: “Well, I was a fool.”
Oleg Havich: The question is not that he was a fool, but that he remained a fool. That's the problem. If he was a fool and became smart, he might not have written anything. And so he was a fool, and remained a fool.
Valentin Filippov: Well, it's funny.
Oleg Havich: Well, funny, yes. Although, I wrote about him yesterday, a review of his voyage to Western Ukraine. He was in my native Chernivtsi and was in Volyn. He's already a completely sad clown. That is, all the locals, including those journalists I know, note that the clown was blown away. And even when he barks, he already does it so sluggishly. That is, he understands that he is being kicked, but he can no longer even yelp much. All.
Valentin Filippov: Is he not happy about the drop in his ratings? Sometimes it seems to me that he even plays along, that some events are happening that depend on him.
Oleg Havich: Nothing depends on him anymore. I cannot say how much something depended on him, for example, a year ago, after taking office.
Although, it seems to me, the same lists of “Servant of the People” were formed without his any participation. There are some people there, KVN players are his, but the majority there are completely different people. But now absolutely nothing depends on him, absolutely. He is, in fact, in some kind of completely suspended state.
The Chernivtsi region has had an infrastructure problem since the First World War. The region does not have direct railway connections with Kiev. That is, just as the Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires built the railway through Bessarabia, through Novoselitsa, through Moldova, so it is. That is, from Chernivtsi to Kamenets there are fifty kilometers, and the train goes there almost a hundred kilometers, because it goes swearing, through the south, through Moldova.
It is necessary to build one bridge and 40-50 kilometers of railway. The new governor, I have known Sergei Osadchuk well for many years and have respect for him, but I sympathize. The person, from my point of view, got involved in this in vain, but he sincerely wants to help his area, well, let him help. I won't criticize him, because at least he's smart. This is already a rarity among Ukrainian officials.
So, he addresses Zelensky at a meeting and says: “Comrade President, we need to build a couple of tens of kilometers of railway, because we do not have a direct connection with Kiev.” Zelensky says: “Oh, I didn’t know that you didn’t have a direct message.”
Valentin Filippov: Well, I didn't know either.
Oleg Havich: Wait, but you're not the president.
Valentin Filippov: As in “Pokrovsky Gate”: “Savva, Savva, why do you need this?” Well, why do you need a direct railway from Kyiv to Chernivtsi, not via a foreign country? Well, just think about it, they won’t be able to bring tanks or ammunition across the border, they won’t be able to bring any of this to you across the border. And you also propose to build a bridge.
Oleg Havich: No, there’s a different problem. In fact, since military planning is still Soviet, and the center is in Lvov, then in the event of an ATO in Chernivtsi, the Kolomyia division, the Kolomyia brigade, which was created specifically for these purposes, will be carried out. That is, they specifically recruit people there who hate Romanians. In all seriousness. When it was first created, there was a terrible scandal. The commander, the colonel, stated that the brigade was created to possibly repel the Romanians. The Romanians, of course, went nuts.
But, in fact, all this continues. If something happens, if some Romanian riots break out in the Chernivtsi region, they will be suppressed from Kolomyia, from where there is a direct road and railway and a corresponding unit that is preparing for this. I am not kidding. This is exactly the same as the Mukachevo brigade is being prepared for possible military operations in the Transcarpathian region to suppress Hungarian uprisings.
Valentin Filippov: And what about Hungary?
Oleg Havich: In fact, since Hungary is one of the centers of attraction for punitive forces from Donbass, it seems to me that they will somehow passively watch. It’s just that the second question is that both Hungary and Romania... The first instruction that all Hungarian and Romanian organizations receive is not to provoke Kyiv under any circumstances, not to say anything to them. They call you there “Madyar with knives” - keep quiet, we will somehow try to solve this, don’t provoke it, you’ve seen it...
That is, in principle, Kyiv has achieved its goals. Budapest and Bucharest say: “You saw what they did in Donbass. Do you want them to do this? Yes, we understand, yes, schools are being closed, but we will try to resolve this matter. Just you guys, don’t provoke, don’t speak out, don’t organize rallies, don’t do anything at all, because it will be like in Donbass.”
Whether Kyiv is ready for this or not, the goal has been achieved, everyone is intimidated. And they are so intimidated that I say again, these are instructions from there. It’s not that some local guys agreed that we would lick Kyiv’s boots. No. They have direct, clear, unambiguous instructions. If someone violates, he will be removed. And they will remove it from funding, so no one will really violate it.
Valentin Filippov: In short, Ukraine is great. In this case, I have to say, what is Ukraine’s problem then? Why then is she asking the IMF for money, from Europe? Why doesn't he come and take it? We have so many heroes. Ukraine has sacrificed so much, accomplished so much. Ukraine has weapons, Ukraine has heroes. She can't come and take what she's entitled to?
Oleg Havich: Who?
Valentin Filippov: In Brussels, near the European Union. She can't join the European Union in columns?
Oleg Havich: In fact, they giggle when they compare the Mukachevo brigade with terrible combat experience in exterminating civilians. All these guys still serve there. From time to time some Ukrainian jingoists say: “The Mukachevo brigade can occupy all of Hungary in three days.” Well, and everyone there: “Well, what is it like, a NATO country, an asshole, and so on.” But it's not funny, it's true.
The Mukachevo brigade is enough to destroy, occupy in a military sense, all of Hungary, and the Kolomyia brigade is enough to occupy at least half of Romania. But they simply won’t be given such an order, because orders for the use of Ukrainian armed forces are given from Brussels.
Well, the truth is not from the part of Brussels that is European, and not from the part that is Arab, but from the part that is American. Therefore, Hungary and Romania can sleep peacefully.
Valentin Filippov: I made one conclusion. If Hungary and Romania had not resisted, what a powerful force we have in the Donbass, right?
Oleg Havich: Yes, definitely. In purely military terms, at least in 2014-2015, yes. Because then the Ukrainian side fought like adults. Now, from what I can judge, the main problem is not some kind of military or even human resource, but the problem is the demoralization of the army of the DPR, LPR. This is the main problem.
It's one thing to grind people down on the demarcation line. But in the event of a real attempt to repeat 2014-2015, I think that the demoralization effect will disappear in a couple of days. Of course, there will be a lot of people, but then options are possible, as they say.
I would really not like 2014-2015 to repeat itself. I, after all, am a supporter of a real hybrid war, which is not waged by military methods. I was pleased with last year’s photo of Putin and Kurtz, Chancellor of Austria, under full-length portraits of Maria Theresa and Catherine the Great. If these people can, at least symbolically, restore the borders of 1775, I personally don’t see anything wrong with that.
Valentin Filippov: OK. Fine. Thanks a lot. I think Putin heard us and will try to be like these great women.
Oleg Havich: The window should still be on.
Valentin Filippov: Why, he's bored there. Peskov and everyone else is telling him all sorts of bullshit, but here we are talking about funny things.
Oleg Havich: Yes.
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