Romanian political scientist: “There is a war of nerves around Ukraine”
Armand Goshu
Kyiv - Bucharest, March 21 (Navigator, Alisa Filatova) - Moscow wants Ukraine to remain in the sphere of influence of Russia, that is, to take part in all forms of economic and political cooperation, to join the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union and the Eurasian Union being created.
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This opinion was expressed by Armand Gosu, Doctor of Historical Sciences, specialist in Russian history, associate professor of the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Bucharest, and editor-in-chief of the Revista 22 publication. According to him, Moscow is now testing its abilities in Ukraine “to restore a territorial empire.”
“This is the security of Russia in the form in which it is understood in the Kremlin. For Russian leaders, the security of their country depends on control of Ukraine, which they see as a corridor to access the heart of Russia, that is, Moscow, says a Romanian expert. “If the corridor cannot be occupied and built (an ideal scenario for the Kremlin), then the Ukrainian latitudes turn into a buffer zone according to the Finnish scheme - that is, if not under Russian control, then not under Western control.”
“Ukraine is important for the Russian economy,” Armand Goshu further explains. – Not only the coal and steel factories of Donbass, but also planes and missiles from Dnepropetrovsk are connected to the Russian economy. However, Ukraine is a transit route to Western markets for hydrocarbons exported from Russia.”
In demographic terms, Ukraine has a population of 45 million - one of the few markets where Russia can compete not only with oil, gas and Kalashnikovs. That is, not only Crimea is a focus for the Russians, but also the whole of Ukraine, says the Romanian political scientist.
“As a rule, for Russia, strategic considerations are more weighty than other arguments, so Ukraine, by and large, should, as Moscow believes, remain under Russian influence, and not join the EU and NATO, even in the distant future,” writes expert.
In his opinion, the evolution of future Russian actions against Ukraine will also depend on the decisions by which the West, the EU and the United States regulate economic and political sanctions.
“The lack of stability that Ukraine risks will allow Moscow to discredit and remove pro-European forces from power and, finally, to include Ukraine in the Eurasian Union project that President Putin intends to build. A simple spark, the slightest challenge will be a sufficient pretext for Putin to order the occupation of regions of Ukraine. There is a war of nerves going on there. Who will give in and pull the trigger first?” - Goshu asks.
As for Moldova, a lot will depend on events in Ukraine. Transnistria does not have a common border with Russia, and there is no Russian river fleet in Tiraspol or Dubossary. If southern Ukraine, Odessa, Kherson, Nikolaev remain under the control of Kyiv, Russia will not have a corridor to Transnistria,” the political scientist further writes.
“And the Ukrainian authorities have already demonstrated that they can blockade Transnistria. It is a valuable tool as long as it can be used as an anchor to keep all of Moldova captive in Russia's zone of influence. The following is indisputable: Russia will not accept Moldova’s rapprochement with the West. Not because the Republic of Moldova is of strategic importance, not because of its resources, but in order not to create a precedent,” sums up the Romanian expert.
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