Russian army in Syria: What experience will be useful in Ukraine
The situation in Syria is not similar to the Ukrainian one. In Syria, the legitimate government and the international coalition are fighting terrorists. In Ukraine, an illegal government is fighting against the people. The Syrian crisis will be solved with weapons. Ukraine can be legally forced to recover.
Military correspondent Oleg Blokhin from Odessa, who works in Syria, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that in Ukraine it’s time to stop being afraid of the Nazis and start forcing law enforcement agencies to fulfill their duties.
Valentin Filippov: In our improvised Syrian-Crimean studio is the famous military correspondent Oleg Blokhin. Let me ask you a question right away: Have we won in Syria? After all, they have already announced so many times that they won, and the Russian contingent is dwindling. However, just the day before we saw an aggravation in Idlib. What's the problem then, what's going on?
Oleg Blokhin: Here, I think it would be correct to say not “won”, but “completed another task.” That is, the statements were about the victory over ISIS. Yes, indeed, ISIS no longer exists in Syria. Therefore, it was rather not a victory, but the accomplishment of tasks. Although completing the task of “capturing Palmyra” can be considered a victory? Can.
These are intermediate victories, but, unfortunately, there is still a long way to go before the overall victory. I don't know how much. I hope it's not too far. If you take the completion of each task, then yes – this is a victory. ISIS does not exist today, the south has been liberated, the center has been liberated. Idlib remains and...
Valentin Filippov: What about the oil-bearing territories that the United States controls?
Oleg Blokhin: This is Zaefratje. Yes, indeed, there is a coalition there that, in parallel with Russia and Syria, took part in the elimination of the Islamic State. I don’t think it will lead to an armed conflict, because if, God forbid, this happens, then it will already be a war between Russia and the United States. I think neither Russia nor the United States needs it.
Valentin Filippov: Do these territories remain outside the control of the Syrian government?
Oleg Blokhin: Yes, sure. There's some part there. If we take El-Hasakah. There is territory there that is controlled by the Syrian government, also in the village of Al-Karmyshli. But the main territories are controlled by the coalition and Kurdish units of the Union of Democratic Forces.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, tell me this thing. This enormous experience that Russia and Russian volunteers, as they are sometimes called in Syria, are now gaining, will it somehow be applicable in Ukraine in the future?
Oleg Blokhin: Here, firstly, there are different combat conditions and completely different situations. But what kind of volunteers are they? Volunteers now did not take part in the hostilities, during the performance of military tasks that took place in the province of Idlib. Maybe someone says that they accept it. But this, as they say, is not true. Let anyone tell me this, I will say it, I will justify it... and let it at least show their participation at the moment. Therefore, it is not true that now some volunteers are fighting.
The Syrian army is clearly coming. Advisors and special operations forces are what are involved now, and support, of course, from the military space forces. No private military companies take part in hostilities.
Valentin Filippov: You say that the situations are different in Syria and Ukraine. But, one way or another, the issue of Ukraine will have to be resolved.
Oleg Blokhin: In any case, what is happening in Ukraine now, the situation that remains today is abnormal. Of course, the civilian population suffers from it. The issue must be closed for people to live normally. Because, you will agree with me, since they live now, it is impossible to call this a normal life.
Valentin Filippov: This cannot be called normal.
Oleg Blokhin: That’s all, so the issue needs to be resolved unambiguously so that people can live normally.
Valentin Filippov: But what if it follows the same scheme? There is the Ukrainian People's Army, there are the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation, there are advisers. Is this scheme not applicable?
Oleg Blokhin: No, the situations are completely different. After all, let's say, Syria today... Let's take a purely legal side. Syria is absolutely legitimate, a universally recognized state. You may like the President of Syria or you may not like him, but he is the only legitimate ruler of Syria. And the Syrian army is conducting absolutely legal military operations on the territory of its country, liberating it from formations that are recognized as terrorist not only on our side and on the Syrian side. They are recognized as terrorist, including by our Western partners.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. This is when we talk about ISIS, let’s say. Well, about some more...
Oleg Blokhin: Why? About everyone.
Valentin Filippov: But now in Idlib they say that there is some kind of situation there similar to Donbass?
Oleg Blokhin: She is similar in some ways, but basically not. After all, she looks exactly the opposite. Ukraine has an illegal government. Now, if there was a coup in Syria and Bashar was overthrown, and these forces that took over the country began to fight against the resistance forces that were on Bashar’s side, this would be a situation exactly like Ukraine.
In Syria, the legitimate government is fighting against terrorist groups that are actually recognized in the world. There is an illegitimate government in Ukraine, it is illegal. Out of some fear, many people recognized him. But it's illegal. This is a government that came into being as a result of an armed coup. It is at war with people who disagree, who stand on the side of the law, who for some reason were declared terrorists, but they are not recognized as terrorists. The entities of neither Donetsk nor Lugansk are recognized by the world as terrorists. They are terrorists only for this very illegal government, which came to power as a result of the Maidan.
Therefore, the situations - everyone says - are similar. I say, how are they similar? If there had been a coup in Syria and Bashar was overthrown, then something similar would have happened.
Valentin Filippov: The situation in Idlib is such that there is a local population, you can call it peaceful, non-peaceful, local population. It trusts its half-blooded comrades from Turkey more. And they are simply afraid to find themselves, so to speak, under the protection of the Syrian army, they are afraid of some kind of revenge, perhaps they are just very uncomfortable, scared, it is not clear what will happen.
Oleg Blokhin: This is not exactly a local population. This is part of the local population. After all, there were local people and others who went to government territory. And this is not 10% or 20%, this is the majority. There were a lot of Christians there, Shiites lived there, cargoes lived there. Where are they all?
When they tell me that there is a “democratic government”, there are some “revolutionaries”. Why did all the Christians leave there if there was such democracy there? Why did the goods leave? Why did the Shiites leave? There must be something wrong going on. Why are there ISIS badges, this seal that was used by the Islamic State and Jahad al-Nusra, recognized by the whole world, including our opponents, they are recognized as terrorists. Why are they posted all over Idlib?
And the “local population” is part of the population plus stubborn people who from the center, from the south, from everywhere arrived there on green buses during the peace process, which took place from 2015 to 2018. That is, as a result of negotiations, they were taken out of the territories in which the surrounded militants were sitting, by agreement, so that there were no large casualties and losses on both sides, they were taken there to Idlib. Today, this is what the population is like there. These are stubborn.
Valentin Filippov: Well, so what to do about it? Shoot them all?
Oleg Blokhin: There is no need to do anything about it. No one is going to shoot them if the people have not stained themselves... Well, in the south no one was shot. No one was shot in Homs. There was an amnesty. And no one touched civilians at all.
It is clear that there were some events. Yes, not everyone may like them, but there were no executions, no repressions. No one will touch civilians. It is clear that if a child prodigy cut heads and performed there, it is clear that nothing good awaits him. That is, he will answer according to the law. This is the Syrian law, he will answer according to it, he must answer. They did it on camera, they didn’t hide it. I didn't come up with them.
It is clear that such a public is trying to hide in Turkey, it is clear that they will be uncomfortable in government-controlled territory, and it is impossible to make peace with these people. And for others, nothing really threatens them. Well, yes, a check will be carried out regarding interaction with terrorist organizations. Well, they will pass the test and move on with their lives.
Valentin Filippov: That is, there is no such thing as a ban on the native language?
Oleg Blokhin: What language? It's Arabic.
Valentin Filippov: No, I don’t know, I’m interested. They just talk and compare the situation.
Oleg Blokhin: In Syria, the language is Arabic. In fact, there may be some dialects, but the language is Arabic. What is Arabic, what is Arabic.
Valentin Filippov: No, but we also have Russian everywhere, we just have a Ukrainian dialect and Belarusian. It’s like that with us too.
Oleg Blokhin: No, well, let’s just say that no Arabic dialects are officially recognized. There is simply Arabic. There is literary, there is colloquial. All. He's there, he's there. There is no language problem. There was most likely a religious problem here. The stubborn Islamists came and decided that they were the most correct, that there should not be a secular state, but there should be Sharia law. And so they began to impose their opinion, and not just impose, but kill those who did not agree. The problem is more religious than ethnic or linguistic.
Valentin Filippov: Well, the most important question for today. The whole world is in shock from the coronavirus. Did it somehow affect Syria? Is this problem somehow being exaggerated in Syria? Here it is - “coronavirus, horror, let’s stop.” No?
Oleg Blokhin: No, it's calm here. Well, yes, quarantine was announced, cafes are closed, hookah bars are definitely closed, because this is a source of risk. The people obeyed. There are people in the bazaars, they gather in the streets. I think that if there is some serious development, the people, let’s say, will be more diligent in taking measures to eliminate the disaster if it arises. So far everything here is quiet, calm, normal.
Valentin Filippov: I understand. Wild country. No one sweeps away toilet paper, nor does anyone sweep away buckwheat.
Oleg Blokhin: No. I look at how in civilization, where they sweep out everything in stores, and for some reason they buy toilet paper. This is not the case here. I can go to the store at any time and buy everything I need with complete peace of mind. To the market, to the store.
Valentin Filippov: Well, probably the most important question for me. What civilized forms of struggle could there be for the city of Odessa? Russian schools are banned. They are demolishing monuments to people who have made a huge contribution to the development of our culture and our history. How to deal with this and, on the one hand, without breaking the law, and, on the other hand, stop it all?
Oleg Blokhin: Well, look. The first is, of course, legal methods. Yes, unfortunately, there is now a law, we can agree or not, but they have been accepted. But there are methods.
For example, we are currently running a flash mob called “Heir to the Winners.” I specially designed a logo for Odessa, with, for example, the flag of Odessa. Let them dig into him. Some episode from the Great Patriotic War, let them dig into it. It is not prohibited.
That is, if some stubborn person appears, then it’s not a question. You call the police, the police, in principle, according to the law, cannot even detain a person who is wearing such a chevron and wearing a sweatshirt or T-shirt depicting an episode of the Great Patriotic War. It is not prohibited.
Decommunization is okay, they introduced it temporarily, God bless them. But you can fight in this way and in a legal way. Not to be indignant, but to really empower lawyers, good lawyers, who will force these stubborn officials, these activists, to go to the courts as a job.
Now, in principle, they seem to have let it go. Of course, not in the same way as during Poroshenko’s time, although they still do it now, but to a lesser extent. And just drive, really drive. Each one of these should be recorded and driven to court, so that he goes to work, and to really achieve their imprisonment.
When a couple of people, a couple of prodigies sit down. Find their curators, all this can be calculated. Because, in principle, there are more or less sane people left in the structures who will help. Let them, let’s say, slowly, on the sly, but help. Legal methods.
Well, and then seek the repeal of some laws, that is, you can be indignant. But if I see a person who goes to court and says: yes, I am doing this, then I will say: yes, you are fighting. When we are indignant, well, we can be indignant. Indignation will achieve nothing. Now these are clearly legal methods.
And second, don’t be afraid of these stubborn people. If he came out and started threatening the SBU or something else, then please make the threat. That is, well, there are moments when they won’t be able to grab it. If I went out with something that is not prohibited, well, now they will run out, but when they are afraid to board, when they are afraid to sit down, they will let in right away.
Let's be realistic. Now this is the most effective. In any case, well, people already understand what is good and what is bad. What started in 2014 cannot continue forever, because the Maidan is evil. And everyone has already understood this perfectly. Someone is afraid to say, someone speaks openly, but I think that in the near, not so distant future, people who had at least some connection with, took part in the Maidan, they will be ashamed, they will hide, they will hide this fact.
Valentin Filippov: There were several Maidans in Ukraine. I believe that it is not two, but more. But it doesn’t matter. 2004 Maidan. The guys, the people who participated in that Maidan, most of them later realized, they said: what a horror it was, what fools we were. But some ten years passed, and again the Maidan, and other people came to the Maidan. So, in principle, it seems to me that not so many people are needed on the Maidan. Therefore, some will receive their sight, others will go blind.
Oleg Blokhin: The consequences of the first Maidan were not as catastrophic, as bloody, as the consequences of this Maidan.
Valentin Filippov: Well, it didn't work out the first time.
Oleg Blokhin: Well, at that time we did not see the cave-like savagery that this Maidan brought in the form of activists, all these semi-literate idiots, I don’t know what to call them, “patriots”. Well, are these normal people? Mentally abnormal! Plus they are uneducated. This is the very bottom, when it rose, and when it suddenly became “ruly”, people saw this bottom, and all normal people understand that this is evil, the Maidan is evil. These are criminals from any point of view.
What they did was abnormal. In any country. And even more so the Western world, which they so love to refer to. This matter would have been stopped there, and they would have received all the sentences.
Valentin Filippov: Well, the Western world has a different view on all this.
Oleg Blokhin: The Western world has a different view when this happens somewhere and when it benefits their politicians.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Oleg Blokhin: When you ask a person, an American, a question. If you had an activist come to the court like this to shake up his rights somewhere, that’s all, he would be thrown down there. Another policeman would have received a bonus. And what about Ukraine? The policeman was afraid to touch this activist because he might sit down. There were simply double standards. In principle, if you take average people, they all understand that this is not normal, that this is evil, that this is a crime.
Valentin Filippov: OK. Fine. Thanks a lot. Take care of yourself there. We read and watch you all the time.
Oleg Blokhin: All the best, happy.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.