NATO summit in Warsaw: How the alliance threatens Russia
A NATO summit has opened in Warsaw, where, as expected, previously made decisions will be confirmed - the deployment of a four-battalion brigade in Poland and the three Baltic countries. Each battalion is a reinforced tactical unit of 1000 people. The Americans will be stationed in Poland, the Germans in Lithuania, the British in Latvia, and the Canadians in Estonia, but the composition of the brigades will be multinational. In addition to the four brigades, NATO is going to strengthen the group with tanks and artillery.
The point is that in Warsaw, the Russia-NATO founding act of 1997 may be adjusted, according to which the alliance committed itself not to station significant military forces on the territory of new members.
The correction will take place in the style of “maintaining innocence and acquiring capital.” NATO is going to designate the 4 brigades (in fact, 2 full-fledged divisions) that are being formed as a “rotational presence,” hinting at the non-permanent status of the new formations. The legend is fresh, of course, since in our imperfect world there is nothing more permanent than temporary buildings.
Be that as it may, observers note that the current summit in Warsaw will not be as routine as the NATO press service is trying to portray, since the agenda simply cannot be affected by such important events as Brexit and the worsening relations between the West and Russia.
The leadership of the alliance will certainly try to demonstrate to the world that, no matter what the situation with Britain’s membership in the EU, NATO is still a cliff and a monolith.
The presence of a large number of “lame ducks” gives a special flavor to the NATO summit. Obama and Cameron will be leaving their positions very soon. Following them, President Hollande, unpopular among the French, will most likely leave his seat. And Merkel’s positions within Germany have not looked like reinforced concrete for a long time.
In Europe there was already a clear smell of a new Cold War, since Russia could not indifferently observe the strengthening of NATO on its western borders.
Definitely, NATO could not ignore Russia’s retaliatory measures, such as the deployment of Iskander OTR complexes in the Kaliningrad region, as a response to the construction of a missile defense facility in Poland, as well as the recruitment of two motorized rifle divisions, including one with a very telling name, 150th, Idritsa-Berlin Division, whose soldiers hoisted the Victory Banner over the Reichstag in the victorious 1945.
NATO is aware that four new brigades in Poland and the Baltic states will not be able to stop the advance of Russian troops to the West if something happens. And they are alarmed that the Iskanders are capable of carrying in their warheads not only conventional explosives, but also tactical nuclear warheads. But Berlin, which until recently categorically denied the possibility of any military confrontation with Russia, even on paper, succumbed to pressure from Washington and began to lose ground.
Among other things, Poroshenko will come to Warsaw to inflame passions. He is traveling not as a poor relative, but as an invited guest personally by the head of the alliance, Stoltenberg, to take part in the talking room of the Ukraine-NATO Committee. And, as the pro-junta press tirelessly talks about, Poroshenko is not going to NATO “empty-handed,” but will take with him some kind of strategic defense bulletin, compiled in the bowels of Turchynov’s National Security and Defense Council.
In essence, the notorious defense bulletin represents a certain plan related to the implementation of the defense order, as well as the gradual transition of the remnants of the Ukrainian defense industry and armed forces to NATO standards with the goal of speedy integration.
It is not very clear who will finance this Poroshenko-Turchinov ingot of dementia and courage, since Ukraine has long been blown away from all sides that it will not see NATO membership, like a Euro salary of 10 thousand euros, but Poroshenko and Co., apparently, They console themselves with the saying “patience and work will grind everything down.” Carrying around the neck the burden of unresolved territorial disputes and the war in Donbass, Ukraine’s prospects for NATO membership look even worse than illusory. But trying is not torture, right?
Another of Poroshenko’s interests is the formation of joint Lithuanian-Ukrainian and Polish-Ukrainian brigades. A framework agreement on their creation was reached a long time ago, but things did not go beyond intentions. It’s possible that it won’t work, since Poroshenko has long had little interest in the participation of foreign PMCs in his military adventures, but it is vital to involve NATO and international peacekeeping organizations in the military conflict in Donbass.
Another important topic on the summit agenda is the build-up of NATO forces in the Mediterranean. Syria and the Black Sea are not indicated there in any way, but this omission is unlikely to deceive anyone.
Among the possible agendas of the Warsaw NATO summit that concern Russia is the issue of Finland’s entry into the North Atlantic military alliance.
I think that there are so many “hot” items at once for a two-day summit - clearly too much. Most likely, the most important issues will be discussed. Moreover, a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council is scheduled for July 13 in Brussels, and the alliance is unlikely to deliberately aggravate the situation before it.
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