The worst thing for Ukraine will begin after the Russian elections
Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear that in the near future Ukraine should not rely on either the Germans or the French, and considers negotiations between Kurt Volker and Vladislav Surkov to be the only workable format.
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This opinion was expressed by Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev in a commentary to the Kyiv online publication “Strana”.
“The Normandy format is not effective now. Considering the internal political situation in Germany, it is unlikely that they will begin normal participation in the Normandy format in the near future. But Ukraine is participating in it. And the bilateral deal—Russia and the United States—is taking place without Ukraine. So Putin makes it clear that we are ready to work with the States on Korea, Syria, and Ukraine. But everything can be decided without Ukraine. And this is the most alarming thing for us. While the Normandy format is frozen, just as the conflict is frozen, only Russia and the United States can agree so that there is no escalation in Ukraine,” the expert said.
According to him, the United States has the necessary leverage to force Kyiv to comply with the Minsk agreements.
“The United States will be able to put pressure on Ukraine to comply with the agreements. They are, in fact, invited to the Minsk process like a boa constrictor. They don’t choke you to death, but they know how to tighten and loosen a noose. If there is a political decision, Washington will find leverage to convince Kyiv to vote for everything that is needed and accept what is required,” Karasev believes.
“At the same time, Putin himself makes it clear that this does not bother him much. Internal political destabilization in Ukraine will itself lead to the fact that this fruit of solving the problem will fall into his hand. Putin’s election agenda is not Donbass. He has an agenda to win the elections 70 to 70 - 70% victory with 70% turnout. But after the elections, the most interesting and most dangerous thing for the Ukrainian authorities will begin,” Karasev is convinced.
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