Organizer of “Dissent Marches” who escaped from the Russian Federation: Russia will disintegrate with a 95% probability
Kyiv, December 17 (Navigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) - The collapse of Russia is inevitable, the liberal opposition can come to power, since for the West such leadership will be predictable, unlike Vladimir Putin. We need to prepare for such a scenario, regardless of the opinion of the notorious 86% of Russians who support the Kremlin.
The organizer of the “Dissent Marches” in St. Petersburg, Olga Kurnosova, who emigrated from the Russian Federation, stated this at a press conference in Kyiv.
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“Today Russia has already become such an arena of the battle between progress and regression. In Russia today there is no elite in the sense of people who are responsible to the country, to the population, and to the territory in the broad sense of the word.
That is why the danger of Russia's collapse is great. By starting the war in Ukraine, today's Russian government has launched this scenario of collapse. It is unlikely that Russia will be able to stay within its current borders. Maybe there is a small chance of this, in my opinion, maximum 5%. But some kind of loss of territory is inevitable.
The question is what kind of scenario this will be - loss of territory through some kind of agreement or simply bloody disintegration during a civil war. And I absolutely agree with you that no one needs this collapse scenario today, and Ukraine, naturally, because Ukraine is its closest neighbor.
Europe does not need this, because Europe needs on this territory a predictable, ideally democratic – we say, as it were – country, the main criterion of which should be predictability. The problem with today's Russian government is its complete unpredictability. All the actions that the Russian government is taking today cannot be described other than as schizophrenic.
Therefore, the main question is whether there is any group that is ready to take responsibility for what is happening in this territory. And since we proceed from the fact that predictability and, let’s say, a minimally bloody scenario in Russia is in the hands of everyone, it is necessary to build some group of people for whom this democratic, predictable, normal future of Russia is their point point of view, it is their choice. And this is what I am trying to do today in Ukraine. And no matter what they say about some 86% percent, I want to warn against taking this 86% for granted,” she said.
“There are a lot of sane people in Russia, as demonstrated by the actions in support of Ukraine in Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to my estimates, they are about 20-25%. The main thing is that they are the majority among politically active people. I hope that when Russia moves to the point of bifructation, options will appear for the transition to normal European development of the country with the help of those people who today find themselves to be political migrants,” says Kurnosova.
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