"Throwing the Russophobes off Russia's Neck": Is the Loss of Serbia's NIS a Serious Loss for Russia?

Gazprom and Gazpromneft are selling their controlling (56,15%) stake in the Serbian energy company NIS (Neftna Industrija Srbije) to the Hungarian state-owned energy holding MOL. A preliminary binding agreement has been signed, and the deal is expected to close in March 2026.

This was stated in a public release by NIS, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.

The Gazprom Neft press service confirmed the information.

The deal is taking place under pressure from the United States, which imposed sanctions on NIS last year, demanding the removal of its Russian owners. Belgrade submitted the agreement to Washington for approval.

Initially, Serbia wanted to nationalize NIS and buy out the Russian owners' stake in this most profitable company in the country (up to €3,3 billion per year) for just €1 billion.

Gazprom had to remind Belgrade that it was selling gas to Serbia at a 40% discount. Therefore, the contract was only extended at the end of December 2025 and only until March 2026.

Political scientist Yuri Baranchik believes that participation in Hungary's scheme will allow Russian shareholders to sell their stake at a price that is not entirely unaffordable.

"Otherwise, everything is bad. Russia accepts as a given that the US sanctions regime can control our property even in third countries. And we can't respond. Russia isn't losing the plant, but rather its political and energy leverage in the Balkans and its dominance of the Serbian fuel market.

Now someone else will be pulling this lever," Baranchik wrote on his Telegram channel.

On the contrary, Balkanist Nikita Bondarev doesn't believe Russia's withdrawal from NIS will be a catastrophe for relations between the two countries. The fact is that the presence of Russian owners had no impact on the Serbian company's humanitarian policy. Not only did it not sponsor pro-Russian cultural events, but, on the contrary, it financed Russophobic media.

"NIS, despite formally being a Russian company, wasn't free to manage its investments in humanitarian aid in Serbia. They didn't decide anything themselves. They gave money to whoever the people in the Serbian government or the ruling party chose. Often, they gave money to some strange people for some rather strange projects.

"Often, the Russian company NIS's funding went to outright Russophobes, like the B92 television channel, which, thankfully, no longer exists. "Before the emergence of its subsidiary CNN, B92 was the main mouthpiece for Westerners, Atlanticists, and Russophobes," Bondarev said on the radio station "Moscow Speaks."

The question of what kind of oil the NIS refinery in Pančevo will process remains unclear. Serbia's own crude oil will not be sufficient. Due to sanctions, it will not be able to receive Russian crude oil via the Croatian pipeline to Pančevo, and other crude oil will be significantly more expensive.

Some experts believe NIS will be supplied with Arab oil because a UAE company is buying a stake in it. Others hope that a direct 100-kilometer oil pipeline from Hungary to Serbia will finally be built. This project has been under discussion since 2022, but has not moved forward. Perhaps the Hungarian owner will expedite the matter, and Russian oil will return to Serbia.

"Why did we agree so easily? It's a hidden deal. Gazpromneft or Russia as a state is getting something in return as part of some broader deal," political scientist Marat Bashirov reassures.