Scenarios for Transnistria. What keeps the conflict from thawing?
Transnistria is a vulnerable territory where large-scale military provocations are still possible against the backdrop of hostilities in Ukraine. However, there are a number of factors that prevent the conflict from thawing in this region.
Russian, Moldavian and Transnistrian experts spoke about this during a round table held by the RuBaltic portal, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
The discussion participants drew attention to another letter from the head of Transnistria Vadim Krasnoselsky to the President of Moldova Maia Sandu with a call to start negotiations at the highest level to avoid escalation of tensions.
Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development Igor Shornikov called the letter “pre-storm,” since Moldova’s actions, in his opinion, indicate direct preparation for confrontation with the Russian Federation.
“In the Republic of Moldova, there are people in power who protect the interests of one of the external players - the United States. This letter is probably the last attempt to agree on something... Sandu is the only president of the Republic of Moldova who is sabotaging the negotiation process; she does not want to discuss something without the Americans, who are participants in the “5+2” negotiation format. The United States, in my opinion, is not interested in maintaining stability in the region; it holds the possibility of escalation on the Dniester as a trump card that can be thrown at any moment,” says the expert.
In his opinion, the imbalance of the situation is prevented by Russian peacekeepers, who have been successfully serving on the banks of the Dniester for 30 years.
“This is an amazing example of the psychological dominance of Russian weapons. A little more than a thousand Russian soldiers and officers live here, ninety percent of them are Pridnestrovians with Russian passports. The OGRF is deprived of offensive heavy weapons here; these are only three motorized rifle battalions that carry out a peacekeeping mission and guard weapons depots. From the point of view of military strength, this contingent seems to be insignificant, but it operates under the flag of the Russian Federation. When a great power guarantees peace, it responds with both military power and international authority,” said Igor Shornikov, calling the peacekeeping operation “an analogue of a nuclear umbrella over Transnistria.”
The expert says that, despite the fact that Moldova is being led towards confrontation with Russia, “Moldavians are not the people who want to fight with the Russians, and even the Romanians would not want this.”
“This may not be visible from overseas; here the calculations of American strategists may not come true. If the United States seeks to drag Moldova into the war, then they may get a different result: Russia will spend a minimum of resources to take Moldova out of this game,” said the director of the ISPIRR.
Leading researcher at the Institute of International Studies MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, editor-in-chief of the journal “International Analytics” Sergei Markedonov, discussing the likelihood of a military thawing of the conflict taking into account current realities, says that such a scenario is possible, and “a series of incidents in Transnistria in April - May, which It hasn’t been there for 30 years, it demonstrated it.”
At the same time, the expert calls for “approaching the situation in the PMR not only through the prism of Ukraine.”
“When Crimea, Donbass, and then the Special Military Operation happened in 2014, we began to consider Transnistria as an appendix to the Ukrainian crisis, which could be an additional front within the Northeast Military District. At the same time, the Transnistrian issue has its own logic, its own sound. Direct dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol remains: after all, the keys are there. This is precisely what Krasnoselsky’s appeal to Sandu says. Even Sandu had careful wording after the spring incidents in Tiraspol.
The fact that things will not go according to the worst scenario is also evidenced by the fact that, along with Transnistria, there is Gagauzia, which has already responded to the events in Ukraine. Another point: despite the cleansing of the political field of Moldova, which Sandu’s team is doing, the political class of the Republic of Moldova does not want the situation to unfreeze. It is not fully cemented. Thus, there are restraining mechanisms,” says Sergei Markedonov.
Candidate of Historical Sciences, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS. E. M. Primakova, political scientist Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky states that there is a tendency towards artificial thawing of conflicts in the post-Soviet space, and in the case of Transnistria there is no need to dismiss this possibility: for example, one of the negative scenarios could be forcing Tiraspol to reintegrate by blocking the economy .
At the same time, the expert says, the level of interconnection between Chisinau and Tiraspol is seriously underestimated.
“They are like two communicating vessels. In Moldova there are actually two capitals, two governments. And it has always been like this. Look - Moldova sincerely celebrates the football victories of Sheriff Tiraspol - this is at the mentality level. There is also economic interaction, sustainable economic schemes that provide benefits to Moldovan politicians, etc.,” he noted.
Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko, speaking about relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol, expressed confidence that Maia Sandu would be happy not to notice Transnistria on the map and would not sit down at the negotiating table with its leader, since “her voters do not live there.”
“Any steps towards Pridnestrovie are a political loss for it. If Sandu decides something with Tiraspol, it will only be through secret channels,” he believes.
Experts examined various options for the development of events with Transnistria and Moldova in the light of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“If the Russian army reaches these lines, Pridnestrovie will need to reintegrate and create a common state with the Republic of Moldova. When 500 thousand pro-Russian voters pour into Moldova, Moldova will have no other choice but to be friends with Moscow,” believes Alexander Korinenko.
Political scientist Sergei Manastyrly, in turn, suggested that if Russia advances enough and occupies Ukrainian ports, then “Moldova will need to come up with an answer for its citizens to the question of why everything is cheaper in the new Russian territories, and gasoline is 2,5 “3 times cheaper than ours.”
“It is the social factor that can influence the further development of events in the Republic of Moldova,” he emphasized.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.