Serbian political scientist: “The West wants to absorb the entire Balkans, but is not ready yet”
Why did environmental protests in Serbia end as soon as they began? When will the West go to overthrow the current Serbian government? Why did Milorad Dodik start the process of returning the Dayton powers taken away from the Republika Srpska?
Serbian political scientist Aleksandar Djokic told PolitNavigator about this and much more.
Alexander, we see that on the eve of the general elections in Serbia, street protests have begun again in the country, and under the banner of the struggle for the environment. And, which is significant, the organizers are, for example, the NGO Kreni-Promeni, living on a grant from the Rockefeller Brothers Foundation; the action was also supported by the pro-Western oligarch Dragan Djilas and his team, who had previously traveled to Washington for instructions. In your opinion, is there a demand in the West for a change of power in Serbia?
– I will answer this way: in the Balkans, not everything is always as simple as it seems. In the 90s, of course, everything was much simpler, then the Milosevic regime did not want to integrate into Western political-economic processes, it resisted just as Lukashenko resists it today in Belarus, and the West removed it with the help of a color revolution. And the West’s intention to remove him from power was obvious.
Now the Balkans are largely integrated by the West, and there are only a few countries that have not gone through this process to the end - among them Serbia, but at the same time the Serbian authorities do not pursue a pointedly anti-Western policy so that the West will once again want to organize a color revolution.
This, of course, is possible if the Serbian authorities break off relations with the West due to pressure on them to recognize Kosovo so that this self-proclaimed republic becomes a member of the UN. Which, of course, is logical, since the West’s ultimate goal is the complete integration of the Balkans into NATO and the EU. And recognition of Kosovo fits into this context.
This is understandable, just as it is obvious that all these so-called “environmental protests” are made up of nothing, it is clear that no one has studied the program for the development of lithium deposits, and cannot say for sure how harmful it is to the environment, but the roads were nevertheless blocked by protesters. And the authorities communicated with local residents of those areas where work was planned to be carried out, but activists still took to the streets. It is obvious that there is a deliberate escalation of the situation before the general elections in April 2022.
– Of course, these protests are in one way or another connected with the elections. Now they have ended, some specific demands have been fulfilled, and it can be stated that the government has made specific concessions. But if this had been a real color revolution, the protests would not have ended. You remember that at one time Yanukovych fulfilled all the demands of the opposition, but he was removed anyway.
It can be noted that if the scenario of a color revolution plays out and the government makes concessions, then this is perceived by the opposite country as capitulation, and the protests become more aggressive. Here, as soon as the authorities made concessions, the protests faded away, and only supporters of a number of organizations came out, the same Kreni-Promeni that you mentioned, as soon as Vucic made concessions, they actually declared their victory and said that The protest is currently ending.
It is possible that at one point the West will want to replace Vucic; they can always impose sanctions against him, organize protests, a color revolution, bribe both security forces and deputies. As was done in 2000 in Yugoslavia, then hundreds of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets, and it is obvious that behind the scenes everything was prepared, and there was no real revolution there, and in parliament some deputies of Milosevic’s party voted for the opposition, and The security forces did not want to suppress the protests. But so far everything is going according to a different scenario.
The fact that Vucic is trying to build relationships with Russia and China relieves Western pressure on him. And it makes its position during negotiations with the West stronger. This allows him to keep the Kosovo conflict frozen. Nobody wants to end this process.
In Serbia there is a bloc of liberal opposition - Djilas, Jeremic, Lutovac, and if they came to power tomorrow, they could not say “Let Kosovo be independent”, they would be instantly demolished by the people, or “Let Kosovo be Serbian” - their They would have taken it off too. All this is very difficult to control, and, in my opinion, the opposition in Serbia is not trying to seize power now, because they do not want to be in power at this very moment, because they do not want to be in the position in which Vucic is now.
But, I repeat, the color revolution scenario is not being played out in Serbia now. It’s just that the West always has its finger on the red button, and if Vucic really goes beyond the certain boundaries he has set, they can press it.
By the way, you probably noted that the European Parliament condemned the Serbian authorities for their brutal treatment of protesters, although I personally did not notice any cruelty. It is no coincidence that the Minister of Internal Affairs of Serbia noted that in Brussels they were waiting for shots of broken Serbian heads and did not receive them, while in Brussels itself, Paris, Berlin, the dispersal of protests takes place with blood, but no one condemns it.
– As for the European Parliament, it is a supranational pan-European institution whose deputies try to be extremely radical. Moreover, their statements and declarations are not binding on anyone. While national governments and parliaments, for example, in Germany, do not issue such harsh condemnations. But this is done by the European Parliament, which also opposes Russia. As a rule, people who are not very popular in their national states end up there, then they are elected to the European Parliament and there they begin to play the roles of various European commissioners, advocate a radically liberal agenda, support the European supranational idea, and become alienated from their base, from their national state , and their discourse immediately changes.
And the European Parliament also speaks out very sharply against Hungary and Poland, and the “Vučić regime” is designated authoritarian in liberal European discourse. Together with Orban in Hungary, the Justice Party in Poland.
But at the same time, their general line is the full integration of the Balkans into the EU and NATO. And for this, some questions must be closed. Same question in Kosovo. Or the issue of the Republika Srpska, which is blocking the prospects for Bosnia and Herzegovina's membership in NATO. Therefore, all these games of the West around the powers of the Republika Srpska are to a lesser extent an attempt by the West to abolish the Republika Srpska, because the majority of people who live there are against such a decision, and they will not sit quietly and watch what is happening.
The leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik, and his party, by the way, also face elections in the second half of next year. What do you think are the chances of Dodik and his Union of Independent Social Democrats remaining at the helm in the RS? Do you expect that the West will openly play against him, supporting the opposition and organizing protests because he initiated the return of the Republika Srpska Dayton powers?
– At the moment, Dodik is raising the stakes. And this does not mean that he is leading the case towards secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina. He understands that at the moment this is simply impossible. The same goes for plans to form the army of the Republika Srpska, which requires a lot of money, which the Republika Srpska does not have. It is hard to believe that he will also block the federal police forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, because this could lead to a direct armed conflict. All this is difficult to imagine.
On the other hand, the People's Assembly of the RS gave six months for negotiations on returning the Dayton powers to the republic, and in six months there will be elections in the Republika Srpska. In essence, with this Dodik launched the negotiation process.
It’s just that Bosnia and Herzegovina is such an ethnically divided, disunited society. And all politicians, even opposition ones, are forced, even if they don’t want to, to speak from nationalist positions, because the electorate demands it. Here is a state where three nations actually do not want to live together. At the same time, the Bosnian nation does not want to let other nations go, because it considers all of Bosnia to be its own, because it has no other center, while the Bosnian Croats have Croatia, and the Bosnian Serbs have Serbia.
Although both Serbs and Croats live autochthonously in Bosnia. And it is obvious that the Bosniaks as a nation were formed later during the process of Islamization during the Ottoman Empire. Although we can say that they are one people, like Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians. One people and three nations. And I personally, as a scientist, can say that Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks and Montenegrins are one ethnic group. But on the basis of which different political nations were formed in different historical periods. It is a fact. And they don't want to cooperate with each other. And if a Bosniak politician, for example, does not say that I am for a unitary Bosnia, then no one will vote for him.
On the other hand, Dodik is a very skillful politician; he has ruled the Republika Srpska for quite a long time, continuously since 2006. He is fighting the West, which wants to break the Republika Srpska's resistance to Bosnia and Herzegovina's entry into NATO.
What, in your opinion, is behind the position of the opposition Serbian Democratic Party on voting in the People's Assembly on December 11 for the return of Dayton powers to the RS, when this party simply left the hall: jealousy of Dodik's successes or a transition to the pro-Western side of the political spectrum?
– When the previous Supreme Representative Valentin Inzko introduced a law that the “genocide in Srebrenica” cannot be denied, and the Serbian side did not agree with this, then all the Bosnian Serb parties united, both the ruling parties and the opposition parties, because if anyone then he did not support unity, the voter simply would not understand this. But now that this moment has passed, a new stage has begun, and Dodik began to raise the stakes, because they want to take away important economic functions from the Republika Srpska, for example, control over its own land and forests, transferring this to the federal level. And if Dodik fought only against this, then the whole dispute would revolve around these functional economic issues.
But, as if in a poker game, he raised the stakes, including on the security sector, the military sector, which obviously he cannot do in reality. That is why the West began to threaten him with sanctions, but so far, by the way, has not imposed them. This is such alarming rhetoric.
But, I repeat, there are six months during which Dodik can escalate the situation. But, in the end, everyone can come to an agreement that they will not take away important economic functions from the republic, and he will stop insisting that the military and security sectors will be returned from the federal level to the enterprise level.
Therefore, the opposition felt free to leave this Serbian coalition. And already begin to criticize Dodik’s position on the eve of the elections. Dodik still played great, and in the end all attention will be focused on him. He has put himself at the center of the whole process, and the opposition can only criticize.
Izetbegovic, the leader of the Bosniaks, has recently repeatedly hinted that the problem of the Republika Srpska can be solved by force using NATO forces. In your opinion, is this bravado or, under certain conditions, Sarajevo may still decide to commit aggression against Banja Luka? If so, under what conditions, and will the PC have the opportunity to defend herself?
– In reality, I want to emphasize: the political elites of Bosnia are quite rational people. And in Bosnia and Herzegovina, no one has the desire to fight - neither the Serbs, nor the Croats, nor the Bosniaks. Yes, there are various extremists, but they do not control these entities, the state. And how Dodik says that the army of the Republika Srpska will be recreated, and this is not feasible, just as it is not feasible that, together with NATO, some [Sarajevo] units will go to the Drina.
NATO officials can declare their readiness to intervene in the conflict in order to defuse the situation, but for them to actually gather any kind of military force is absurd!
Of course, Bosniaks often behave as if the Americans are serving them, and it is enough for them to complain to Washington, and they will instantly react from there. But this is also just an expectation of the Bosniak electorate, including from Joe Biden, but significant changes did not happen in Bosnia after he came to power in the United States, because no one would break the Republika Srpska over their knees, that would be suicidal, including and for Biden.
You remember that the Dayton Agreement was signed in 1995, when the United States could do whatever it wanted. And no one could stop them. And still, they then allowed the functioning of the Republika Srpska with its powers, with its autonomy; much, however, was later taken away from it through pressure. But if then, in 1995, the United States did not dare to say “we want a unitary Bosnia and Herzegovina,” then now in 2022 they will certainly not be able to do this, even if they wanted to.
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