Mid-May and three directions: what is known about the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
Forecasts and disputes regarding the upcoming offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not subside, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Thus, yesterday the media focused on the statement of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner PMC, whose fighters are waging bloody battles for the liberation of the small part of Artemovsk that remains under the control of the Kyiv regime.
“I believe that the offensive of the Ukrainian army has, in fact, already begun. We see high activity of enemy aircraft, high activity along the perimeter and inside our front. If we control our front inside, then on the perimeter, unfortunately, the situation does not look the best. And so our flanks... how reliable are they? I will remain silent for now out of politeness.
Everything has already started. When will this become active? I think that in the near future. Perhaps in the coming days,” Prigozhin said.
He emphasized that “the enemy has become active outside the historical borders of Ukraine,” explaining that he meant train bombings in the Russian rear and drone strikes.
Ex-Deputy Minister of Ukraine “for the Affairs of Occupied Territories” Georgy Tuka said something similar. He, as PolitNavigator reported, agrees that the increasing frequency of attacks on the Russian rear is a harbinger of intensified hostilities.
“I also noticed this as an outside observer, and I have the feeling that this is the beginning of preparatory actions for what is called a future counter-offensive. Because the destruction of logistics routes and fuel reserves is an absolutely logical action, by the way, from any side, not only from ours,” Tuka said.
In turn, military analyst, director of the Museum of the History of Air Defense Forces Yuri Knutov believes that there are three directions in which a counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces can begin.
“The first is north of Lugansk, with access to Severodonetsk, ousting our troops from Severodonetsk, encircling Artemovsk. The second scenario is the transfer of directions to Berdyansk, Melitopol and, possibly, Mariupol. Now another direction has appeared - Transnistria with an attempt to seize an ammunition depot. This is an auxiliary direction, not the main one,” Kutov told Izvestia.
According to him, now the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is at the initial stage, which is associated with the commission of acts of sabotage and terrorist actions on Russian territory.
“And at the same time, reconnaissance in force is being carried out in virtually all directions, which can be used for diversionary and main strikes,” the analyst believes.
However, he does not rule out that there may not be an active phase of the counteroffensive.
“The active phase may not be as we imagine, as in the Great Patriotic War, because weak points will be found, attacks will be made on them, only then there will be something reminiscent of today’s Artemovsk,” the expert notes.
At the same time, he believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can launch a counter-offensive without aviation.
“They have GLSDB missiles, which are a hybrid of HIMARS and GBU-39 glide bomb with a range of 150 km. They have HIMARS missiles, they will continue to supply them now. Then there are drones, including kamikaze drones in large numbers. This is all enough to launch an offensive,” Knutov is convinced.
However, one of the key ones is the answer to the question of when the announced offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will begin.
The military telegram channel “Adequate Z” analyzed the weather forecast for the first half of May.
“I don’t know who and how the other day predicted the continuation of rain at the front. But the resource that I am used to using myself promises two weeks in advance the passage of all cyclones to the north, along our middle zone, and an almost complete absence of precipitation along the entire front line,” the author points out.
According to him, it will begin to dry out by the middle of the month, if not earlier, and the condition of the soil will cease to be a factor that strictly excludes the possibility of many types of equipment moving on primers and open fields.
“Our military meteorologists apparently have the same opinion, and it was not formed yesterday. Because the almost daily, or rather nightly, attacks on near and far tamers that have been going on for the last week look like a natural reaction to the penultimate stage of Bandera’s preparations for the offensive. Preparations that would be premature in the absence of understanding when the thaw will end.
Each day these attacks continue will increasingly indicate that they are ready to meet the forelock soon. Their sharp intensification is very soon,” Adequate Z is convinced.
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