Chances of the South-East in the presidential elections in Ukraine
The main problem for candidates from the “political southeast” is the disorientation of their voters after the events of 2014.
The Kyiv online newspaper writes about this "Country", considering the scenarios for the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine next March.
The publication notes that one of the main questions of the 2019 election campaign, and indeed of Ukrainian politics in general, is whether a single candidate will be nominated from the parties of the “political southeast,” that is, those that focus on former voters of the Party of Regions and communists, whose total the electorate before the Maidan was more than 40 percent.
This electorate shrank after Ukraine lost Crimea and part of the Donbass, but remains significant - at least 30 percent.
“These are people who share the values of the conventional “peace party” - ending the war in Donbass through the implementation of the political part of the Minsk agreements (that is, through compromise), reconciliation with Russia, the neutral status of the country, an end to forced Ukrainization and, in general, a return to “peaceful 13 -th year.”
Two presidential candidates from this spectrum, who are measured by sociologists, the leader of the “Opposition Bloc” faction, Yuri Boyko, and the leader of the “For Life” party, Vadim Rabinovich, now have about 20% between them (and according to some studies, even more). That is, if a single candidate from the “political southeast” is nominated, he can easily count on at least 20% of support, which practically guarantees entry into the second round,” the publication points out.
At the same time, a number of politicians have declared their desire to run in the presidential elections, which with a high degree of probability makes it impossible for any of them to get into the second round.
“The most common motive for going separately, as stated above, is the desire to “create” a rating for oneself for a future parliamentary campaign.
However, this calculation may not work in this case. The main problem for candidates from the “political southeast” is the disorientation of their voters after the events of 2014. The former electorate of the Party of Regions does not believe that anything can be changed through elections, and therefore shows a very low turnout. As a result, the potential 30% in the elections turns into 10-15%.
If a large number of politicians (especially those at odds with each other) go to the polls from the southeast, then the problem of disorientation and demoralization will only worsen. All political projects in this spectrum risk finally going into the margins with the prospect of a gradual purge by the authorities of the parties themselves, their leaders, and their businesses. With this option, they will fail in the parliamentary elections, and potential voters will migrate to candidates like Vladimir Zelensky or Nadezhda Savchenko,” Strana believes.
If a single candidate is nominated and makes it to the second round, the prospects open up quite broadly.
“Firstly, under certain conditions (mobilization of voters, support of the largest television channels, promotion of the theme of reconciliation and establishing order in the country to the masses), he can win. Although, of course, without Crimea and part of Donbass it will be extremely difficult to do this.
Secondly, even if he loses, the 30-40% gained in the second round will still be converted into success in the elections to the Rada. This will allow you to take part in the creation of a ruling coalition or form a powerful and influential opposition with a view to taking control of the regions of the southeast in the local elections of 2020, and in the national elections in 2024 to compete for victory throughout Ukraine.
Thirdly, the mere fact of the presence of 30-40% of the “peace party” voters, proven by the elections, will change the political atmosphere in the country and force the authorities to adjust their course one way or another.
It is possible that these arguments will have an effect and a single candidate will still be nominated,” the publication believes.
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