The shaky fortification of Dodon and the threat of the pro-Romanian Maidan: A view from Transnistria
In Transnistria they are closely following the next theatrical action in Moldovan politics. Created thanks to the efforts of external partners, the coalition of the Socialist Party and the ACUM bloc, which was called everything - unexpected, encouraging, compromise, and unnatural - lasted only five months. The collapse of the ruling alliance was led to by the local elections held in Moldova, as well as the situation with the appointment of the Prosecutor General of the Republic of Moldova. The government changed in less than a week. The government of Maia Sandu was replaced by a minority “Dodon government”, supported by the socialists and the Democratic Party.
Experts spoke at a discussion club meeting organized in Tiraspol by the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development about what changes in the balance of political forces in Moldova will lead to, and what the main political players will bring to the next presidential elections.
Deputy Director of ISPIRR Andrey Mospanov analyzed the gains and losses of the three main forces that appear today on the Moldovan political arena - the Party of Socialists, the ACUM bloc and the Democratic Party.
According to Mospanov, the main beneficiary after what happened today is the PSRM – it has gained a lot. This is the second result in terms of the number of mayors in local elections, and the post of mayor of Chisinau, received contrary to all forecasts, and, finally, a minority government, thanks to which the socialists can now pursue their own policies.
Against the backdrop of all this, the PSRM has lost its moral initiative, the expert notes. “Until recently, socialists were participants in a project to de-oligarchize the country. And now they themselves will be accused of restoring the oligarchic regime.
Socialists, under pressure from democrats, will inevitably be forced to make Euro-Altantic concessions. The problem for socialists is dependence on the Democratic Party, which has risen from the ashes like a phoenix and launched a counter-offensive.
After the resignation of Maia Sandu's government, the new team will face a wary attitude from the EU, and this is already happening. In addition, Ion Chicu, who took over the post of Prime Minister, has a personal bad European record - as an adviser to President Dodon, he accused the Europeans of complicity in the theft of a billion.
Finally, the Socialist Party, having assumed full power, will face increasing competition on the left flank, where there is “Our Party”, and the “Shor” party and the emerging “Civil Congress”, which makes the PSRM very nervous,” says Andrei Mospanov.
He believes that the socialists will do their best to “defend the bridgehead that they have taken, try to maintain a minority government for the maximum possible period, and also seek the re-election of Igor Dodon as president.”
As for the ACUM bloc, which was removed from power and is now in opposition, it took third place in the number of mayors in local elections, which can be considered an achievement in conditions where the political formation has not yet completed the process of party building. Besides, on the side of the bloc there is a moral initiative that will only grow, since the minority government of the socialists will inevitably get bogged down in the socio-economic agenda.
“The bloc abdicated responsibility for the socio-economic agenda and nullified the mistakes of the former government. In addition, the national liberals of Romania will continue to closely support ACUM,” said Andrei Mospanov, explaining that a native of the National Liberal Party of Romania, the current head of the country Klaus Iohannis, will most likely be re-elected to a second term following the results of the second round of the presidential elections on November 24 .
The expert included the sensitive defeat in the elections for the head of Chisinau among the losses and weaknesses of the bloc. The ACUM bloc is also hampered by a shortage of management personnel and the lack of a monolithic structure.
“The bloc needs to maintain unity and expand at the expense of the PLDM in order to concentrate the right-wing electorate. The victory of Maia Sandu in the presidential elections will be the main goal of ACUM. But this will be impossible without attracting part of the Russian-speaking centrist electorate“The bloc will not go far thanks to the right-wing audience alone,” the expert believes.
According to Andrey Mospanov, The Democratic Party is now in the most advantageous position. According to the results of local elections, it has the most mayors, although until recently the party was deprived of moral authority.
«The PDM gained control over the minority government and the opportunity to pursue its socio-economic agenda without responsibility for the results of its work. The Democrats have regained their “golden”, decisive voice in the development of the foreign policy situation,” says the expert.
He is confident that in the near future there will be talk of a coalition between ACUM and the Democratic Party, in which the PDM would become an equal partner and would receive the post of prime minister and key ministries after early parliamentary elections or even without them.
“In the spring of 2020, criticism of the government of Ion Chicu from the democrats may begin - this may become preparation for a vote of no confidence. If the minority PSRM government survives to the presidential elections, it will certainly be a victory for the socialists. Igor Dodon will be able to rely on him and his successes. The likelihood of early parliamentary elections will depend on the consensus of the EU and the US. During the fight for the presidency, Dodon may need Transnistrian votes “It is possible that he will follow the path that the PDM used in February 2019, when the transportation of voters from the left bank was organized, but for this it will be necessary to improve relations with Tiraspol,” predicts Andrei Mospanov.
Geopolitical players, he says, will continue to greatly influence the situation in Moldova. So, if The EU and the US will be interested in strengthening the ACUM bloc, creating his coalition with the Democratic Party, will support Maia Sandu in the presidential elections, then Russia will be satisfied with Dodon’s re-election for a second term and maintaining minority government.
“Russia is in a difficult situation, although formally it is the winner. She faces serious questions. If you support the socialists, then how exactly? Invest in RM? How many? What will happen to these investments if another government comes soon?” - the expert noted.
Russian political scientist, associate professor at Russian State University for the Humanities Alexander Gushchin said that in the Russian Federation there are victorious reports regarding the situation in Moldova, the central press writes about the opening prospects for the Eurasian integration of Moldova, however “the situation is not as good as it may seem.”
“The coalition that emerged in June was built through the participation of external players. What happened now puts an end to the hopes of those who believed that the model of interaction between Russia and the West, tested in Moldova, could be used in broader geopolitical constructs, become the first step for a new architecture of international relations. The mechanisms that have long been used in Moldova’s politics turned out to be much stronger than a one-time political decision, even one made by serious actors,” says Gushchin.
With the collapse of the PSMR-ACUM coalition and the advent of a new government The expert does not expect any major changes in the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova. In his opinion, “the humanitarian vector may change, at least in words, but systemic progress cannot be expected”: the opposition, with the support of the West, will probably blame the new government for any failures. Gushchin considers the victory of Dodon and the socialists “tactical, but not strategic.”
The political scientist says that Russia in Moldova, as in other countries in the post-Soviet space, should have a number of political projects and parties with which interaction would be built.
“We need systemic relationships, so that we do not depend on any one political entity. We have repeatedly encountered a problem when a one-sided orientation led to the fact that we ourselves found ourselves in a dependent position and then were forced to make decisions that were already a consequence of the situation, that is, we pursued a reactive rather than proactive policy. Variability of support and work in several directions on the left flank would be correct “Today there is a big demand for leftist forces,” noted Alexander Gushchin.
Chisinau journalist Elena Pakhomova, commenting on the situation with external support, stated that Moldova now has a unique chance to get “maximum financing on both sides", and you need to use it.
“For a long time, the EU and the US have been pouring money into the country, and we are seeing real results. Russian money now, apparently, will also be there. There is one big beauty in a technocratic government: it will no longer be possible to steal as brazenly as all its predecessors did, and you will have to work it all out,” she said.
Pakhomova believes that Minister of Education Cornelius Popovich will have the hardest time of all in Dodon’s government. As you know, today in schools in Moldova the course “History of the Romanians” and the Romanian language are taught, not Moldavian. Socialists consider this unacceptable and have repeatedly stated the need to eradicate this practice. On this path they will definitely encounter opposition.
“The minister will have to deal with unionist forces - not numerous, but very active. Their slogans about sweeping away the “History of Romanians” could be a death sentence for all the good that the government will do. Our slogans are always more important than actions. Corneliu Popovich, of course, will first focus on heating in schools, hot water, feeding children, and if he has a little more time, he will also focus on the content of textbooks, which are full of mistakes. It is quite possible to assume that in the end Moldovan children will simply learn the history of the Romanians in more comfortable conditions, but we’ll see what actually happens,” says Pakhomova.
A similar opinion is shared by a Transnistrian historian Nikolay Babilunga. He notes that pro-Moldovan forces have come to power in the Republic of Moldova, but it is not yet clear whether they will be able to defend their positions on fundamental issues.
“In Moldova, for 30 years, the forces in power were convinced that Moldova is a historical mistake, that there are no Moldovan people, but Romanians. The country was led by forces who believe that they do not need this country. Whoever was in power there - Snegur, Luchinsky, Voronin. Finally, state forces appear. Dodon has the strong streak of a Moldavian peasant who could survive both the Turks and anyone. Socialists for me are a force that represents statehood, in which this statehood has some prospects. But socialists probably understand that they will not be allowed to revise even a single word in programs and textbooks, which should generally be in the trash. Cash injections will begin again, some members of the air force will receive a can of beer, a stone in their hands and will be sent to storm “to make another hominy revolution,” notes Babilunga.
Political scientist Andrey Safonov also believes that In Moldova, there is a risk that the political struggle will move to the streets.
«Do socialists have street fighters to repel the onslaught of right-wingers and unionists? After all, as you know, at critical moments, strength decides everything, and all documents are thrown into the trash. Voronin, for example, did not have such fighters, although he had first a constitutional and then a simple majority in parliament. If there are no such reserves, the future of the socialists seems very problematic,” says Safonov.
He notes that socialists today “are left alone against everyone.” “The Democratic Party supported the minority government and stepped aside. Everyone around the socialists is watching and waiting for them to make their first big mistake. If the PDM, ACUM and Shor find a common language, it will be fatal for the minority government - these parties will have enough votes,” the expert is sure.
Speaking about socialists, who every now and then “have to step on the throat of their own song,” the political scientist asks the question: But isn’t the whole point of being in power lost if you always make concessions on fundamental issues?
“The socialists had previously made radical concessions to the ACUM bloc - in the eyes of the right, this was a sign of weakness. Besides, You can’t win people over to your side if you always make concessions to the right", - the expert notes.
Meanwhile, according to the observations of Moldovan experts, in the Republic of Moldova, in fact, a presidential campaign is already underway. For example, a young political scientist from Chisinau speaks about this Alexander Korinenko, who, by the way, previously surprised his colleagues by predicting that the socialist Ion Ceban would take the mayor’s seat in the “right-wing” Chisinau in the local elections, after which the PSRM-ACUM coalition would collapse.
Korinenko оnotes that “Igor Dodon has started.” “In Moldova there is always a demand for a strong leader, and Dodon demonstrates: this is my government, it is my advisers who have become ministers, I am the boss here. The new Prime Minister Ion Chicu is a man without political ambitions, his task is to demonstrate success in the economy and social sphere, and he can achieve this in a year. The government has a strong team,” he says.
But Maia Sandu will never again occupy any high government position, the expert believes. He notes that Sandu had five months, “during which she showed absolutely nothing" For example, her government failed the investigation into the theft of a billion from the banking system, which, according to Korinenko, “will never return to the country.”
“At the same time, it must be said that Sandu’s Action and Solidarity party will absorb Andrei Nastase’s party, and on the right flank the unionists, supporters of the unification of the Republic of Moldova and Romania, are becoming more active. Here the unionist, former boxer Octavian Ticu, seems to already want to introduce the Ukrainian tradition of guarding the rostrum in parliament (On November 12, Ticu blocked the parliament rostrum at the moment when Prime Minister Maia Sandu was supposed to speak before deputies voted for a vote of no confidence in her government - approx. . author). The proportional system will return the unionists to politics, they will take the place of the liberals, get their 10% and shout loudly in parliament,” says Korinenko.
He predicts that The leader of “Our Party” Renato Usatii, who has “entrenched himself in Balti,” will try to create competition for Dodon. But at the moment Usatii does not have a clear national agenda and is still only a regional leader, the expert said.
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