Six years after Tskhinvali. Waiting for the big war
Six years ago, Georgian troops began shelling Tskhinvali. After a week-long war, experts began to wonder: what was Saakashvili counting on, since it was clear that the Georgian army would lose the battle with Russia? But he didn’t even ask such a question.
There is one significant mistake in thinking about geopolitics, which concerns American post-Soviet satellites like Georgia and present-day Ukraine. It seems that they are pursuing, albeit suicidal, their own policies. But this is not so: the entire logic of political decisions comes not from national interest, but from orders in one administrative building on Capital Hill.
Saakashvili was pushed towards war with one hand, they prepared him, they convinced him that they would stand up for him if Russia retaliated. Because he was confident in his actions. When it came to a real conflict, Georgia was abandoned. To the point that the date of the attack could have been reported to Moscow in advance. The United States not only manipulates Georgia and Ukraine, it deliberately corrupts its police officers, and then just as deliberately tramples them, destroys them, throws them away, used them.
The new Ukrainian government is not just being pushed towards conflict, it has become a transmission belt in the process of the region falling into a funnel of destruction and instability. Today's statement by Yatsenyuk about the possible termination of the transit of Russian gas to Europe this winter is from the same story as the attack on South Ossetia. The United States is completely destabilizing the region, and Yatsenyuk is the watchdog of their policy, who no longer even takes Europe into account.
A ban on the transit of Russian gas will lead to the collapse of the European economy, a sharp rise in prices, and technological destruction. In fact, this is blackmail of Europe by the United States.
The war unleashed by Kiev in Novorossiya has only one goal - to involve Russia in the conflict with the possible participation of direct military contingent from the West. This is precisely why the airports in Donetsk and Lugansk were defended by Ukrainian troops for so long. What is the purpose of keeping the military contingent surrounded and under fire if no landing of Ukrainian troops at airports is justified, since there are troops around Donetsk and Lugansk itself? Only one - if necessary, troops were supposed to land there, but not Ukrainian ones.
The downed Boeing is another step towards this conflict.
The sporadic military actions that unfolded in Nagorno-Karabakh the other day are phenomena of the same order. Armenia acts as an ally of Russia. The Great Steppe begins from Donetsk and continues to China. The new Silk Road planned by China runs through this zone. Armenia is an important partner on this parallel, as well as Iran and Turkey, as well as Crimea. At the same time, a terrorist attack was committed in the Uyghur Autonomous Region, which claimed the lives of more than 100 people. The Fergana Valley in Central Asia is becoming a place of tension and possible conflict. Let us recall that in Central Asia, using similar technologies as in 2004 and 2014 in Kyiv, the same orange revolution was carried out as in Ukraine and Georgia.
All these events from Donetsk to China fit into one logical chain - a clash between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, where Russia is not even in the forefront. That is why any successes of Novorossiya are successes of global significance.
So yesterday there was a complete release of the group of Ukrainian troops in the Southern Cauldron. A little more than 1000 people and up to half of the entire equipment assigned to the group came out. This is regarded and presented by Kiev as a great victory, but no one in the Ministry of Defense says that, according to the most conservative estimates, about 4000 people and hundreds of pieces of equipment entered the “cauldron”. The militia received, according to their statements, a whole range of various equipment, including completely intact and untouched ones. The remnants of the Ukrainian military that have left in the next month or two are definitely not fighters, if they even want to return to fight.
Meanwhile, in the Debaltsevo-Donetsk-Torez triangle, battles are being waged without a definite front, everything is turning into a mess of checkpoints and occupied/abandoned cities. Such clashes are the most unpredictable and bloodiest. The militia effectively defends and advances.
The number of militia today can reach 10 thousand people, but complete unity of command has never been achieved. We are sure that this phenomenon is still temporary.
A new stage of the war has begun, where the winner will be the one whose nerves can withstand, who can bring up reserves. Ukraine has much more reserves; Donbass can count on help, even if not at the state level, only from Russia. The militia needs to hold out until winter and Kyiv may fall under a hail of its own deadly, unsolvable and completely hopeless problems created by the junta.
Novorossiya is not a separatist state. This is an obstacle to starting a big war throughout the Eurasian field. Now ordinary Donetsk guys, at the cost of their lives, are protecting the world from hundreds of thousands, and maybe millions of victims. Think about these words and stop being naive: the United States will not back down.
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