Shevchuk is getting ready to go on a hike...

Former PMR President Yevgeny Shevchuk, whose rule in the republic is characterized as the “black five-year plan,” wants to return to Transnistria to, in his own words, “bring a match and set fire to a haystack.” Pridnestrovian political scientist Andrei Safonov tells readers of PolitNavigator what is behind this and how it will ultimately turn out in an exclusive article.

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when they are in the wrong hands... (Author not identified) 

1. Evgeniy Shevchuk: return of the naked king?...

On May 21, 2020, the former President of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, Yevgeny Shevchuk, appeared online and declared his claims to supreme power, which he lost after the presidential elections in December 2016.

Here is the difference in his quotes on one of the Internet portals on May 21 and 22.

Option #1. “It seems that you want to return to Transnistria in your previous capacity?
- Yes."

Option #2. "It looks like you want to return to Transnistria?

- Yes."

It is possible that someone was afraid of his premature frank claims, and the wording was cleaned up. Or he himself decided to give it back. However, there were quite objective reasons for this. The fact is that after Shevchuk’s crushing defeat (in the 2016 elections), 27,8% of the votes voted for him, and 62,3% of the votes voted for the current President Vadim Krasnoselsky. This happened largely because the entire era of Shevchuk, or, as it was called in Transnistria, the “black five-year plan,” people began to associate with theft and corruption on an unprecedented scale.

Thus, with the help of the one-day company Energocapital, which mediated the sale of electricity supplied from Transnistria to Moldova from the Moldavian State District Power Plant (city of Dnestrovsk), from Pridnestrovie, 44 to 47 million PMR rubles were stolen. With the help of the same “office” “Tirasmet” from the Moldavian Metallurgical Plant (city of Rybnitsa) - from 48 to 55 million dollars.

And the company NEK, created under the Transnistrian Railway The “National Forwarding Company”, as was repeatedly reported back in 2016, withheld 160 million Transnistrian rubles from taxes. It is worth remembering that only 3 people worked in this company.

   Of course, this could only happen with the patronage of the first person. Or with his direct participation. As the PMR Prosecutor explained, withThe investigation proved the guilt of the former head of Transnistria for the episodes incriminated against him: illegal withholding of salaries and pensions by 30%, theft of public money in the amount of 83 million rubles through the so-called. “Stabilization Fund” (which was run by citizen Shevchuk himself, who is also the President of the PMR), a bribe to prisoners for lying (he pardoned them, and they spoke on TV against his opponents).

It was also quite inopportune that the receipt of a bribe of 600 thousand dollars from one of the entrepreneurs was revealed. And another 700 thousand - for the Biochim enterprise. All this was published in the media, in the public domain.

2. Why other oppositionists do not favor Shevchuk, as well as the issue of “selection”

In general, the case came down to 16 years in a maximum security colony and a fine of 600 million Transnistrian rubles. True, in absentia. In June 2017, Shevchuk fled from Transnistria to Moldova, after which, again, according to media reports, he wrote a statement to... the Moldovan Prosecutor's Office against his “offenders” and, naturally, was interrogated by its employees. One can only guess what he, as a bearer of state and military secrets of the highest order in the PMR, could tell the Chisinau security forces...

Therefore, even opponents of the Transnistrian government are suspicious of Shevchuk, fearing that his peculiar reputation could drag them down with him.

But let’s return to the interview with the former head of the Transnistrian state. To begin with, Shevchuk denied the current deputies and the President the status of democratically elected authorities: “All the so-called elected authorities of Transnistria, for the first time in its history, in their absolute mass, are appointees, and do not have a direct relationship with the source of power - the people, and do not depend on the voter. They depend on those who “appointed” them by paying for the elections. And in this case they remain outside the competence of the positions they occupy. They never went through professional or political selection on their own, but were approved on the principle of personal loyalty.”

After reading this, I was extremely embarrassed... While still a deputy of the Supreme Council of the Moldavian SSR in 1990-1992 and the Minister of Education of the PMR in 1991-1992, a member of the presidium of the deputy movement of all levels “Union” (1990-1992), I naively believed that passed such a selection. At the same time, I could not remember who Evgeniy Vasilyevich Shevchuk himself was in those good old days... My fellow parliamentarian Buga Igor Semenovich went through Afghanistan, was a deputy of the Tiraspol City Council and deputy chairman of this Council. He had his own selection. Deputy Sergei Fedorovich Cheban was vice-speaker in the last convocation, and Mikhail Porfirovich Burla chaired the previous Supreme Council. Deputy Oleg Markovich Bayev in the Transnistrian parliament since 2000. Vice-Speaker Galina Mikhailovna Antyufeeva - from the same time.

I don’t know to what extent all these and other elected representatives can be called “beyond the competence of the positions they occupy,” but we will forgive the convicted exile for this nervousness. Sometimes emigration takes you away from reality.

 Are you betting on unrest in the PMR in 2020?

But what does Shevchuk actually offer, besides dull attacks on everyone whom he considers to be the culprits of his troubles (he, of course, excludes himself from this list)?

First, we note that he is openly betting on the West and Moldova in the fight against the Transnistrian government. Here is how he assesses what is happening in the former Soviet Moldova:

“The external partners of multidirectional political forces in the Republic of Moldova today have a real opportunity to achieve a political victory, “wiping the nose” of their competitors, and, judging by the situation, the competitors of the Moscow “comrades” have more chances. Leaving Moscow behind, with its plans for Chisinau, and then for Transnistria - this task, in my opinion, is solvable in the current situation and gives external incentives to the internal political struggle in Moldova itself... From this point of view, in comparison with Transnistria, it looks more democratic.”

It turns out that as soon as the United States and the EU oust Russia from Moldova, this will “democratize” the situation in Moldova and lead to the change of power desired by Shevchuk in the PMR. In Transnistria, Shevchuk continues according to the well-established pattern, everything is bad: Pridnestrovians “are deprived of the right to freedom of speech, freedom of economic and political choice, and the right to life is at risk of threats from those who “manage” the government... Dozens of people have been eliminated.” And in general, in the PMR there is a “totalitarian dictatorship”!

Here, reading this, I was even more confused. Who are these “tens”? Which “death squads” destroyed them? Where are the lists of “victims of political repression”? Maybe Shevchuk means himself and several of his fellow accomplices from the group that ruled in 2012-2016, who were imprisoned for stealing people’s money, but they are all alive... But they didn’t kill anyone.

However, then it becomes clear where Shevchuk is leading his narrative:

“The second half of 2020 may bring a change not only of political leaders, but also a change of political regimes in the Republic of Moldova, and then in Transnistria.” This is what he is betting on. And in the wake of possible unrest, he is going to “return to Transnistria in his former capacity.” That is, the President of the PMR. And for this, all means are good. And so do all the accusations.

4. About the “good self-isolation” of Chisinau and the “bad self-isolation” of Tiraspol

Here's an example. Recently, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Moldova and the chief negotiator with Pridnestrovie from Chisinau, Cristina Lesnic, called the PMR’s quarantine measures due to the coronavirus pandemic “artificial self-isolation.” True, she did not explain why all other countries in the world have natural quarantine and border closures, while Pridnestrovie has an artificial one. Shevchuk doesn’t ask her either. It follows the scheme indicated by the Moldovan official:

“Why does Chisinau share aid and do tests for free, while the border is tightly closed? Therefore, the measures taken raised tension in society, and I think, thereby discredited the authorities. Internal resistance to them is growing.”

Shevchuk is confused. Russia helped Italy and Serbia, even sending its military virologists to these countries, but the borders of all these countries were closed. Any assistance in treatment does not mean the need to keep the borders open when everyone else, including Moldova, has closed them (as of May 22, the borders of the Republic of Moldova are still closed). Simply, as one might assume, Shevchuk is in a common anti-Pridnestrovian game with the opponents of the PMR. He dreams of “regime change” in the PMR in a few months in order to return to the “throne” from where voters democratically asked him 4 years ago.

5. Shevchuk is being hindered by Russian soldiers, officials and diplomats?

Shevchuk sees the stability of the Transnistrian government not in the fact that it has been elected throughout the 30 years of the PMR’s existence in an atmosphere of democratic struggle (Shevchuk himself first defeated his rival Igor Smirnov and then lost to Vadim Krasnoselsky), but in “the depth of mutual interests developed with influential circles and intelligence services in Chisinau, Kyiv, Moscow." Let’s leave this “insight” on the conscience of the ex-president of the PMR, because, as usual, he does not name names. Let's pay attention to something else. Shevchuk talks about Russian special services. Russia, its army, its intelligence, counterintelligence, General Staff, all security forces are our friends and allies. But Shevchuk cannot hide his irritation from the fact that Russian people in uniform, as he is sure, stand in the way of fulfilling his desires.

But this is not enough for Shevchuk. As you know, after the fall of his power, an investigation into the actions of his accomplices began. As a result, some of them, the media reported, were brought to Transnistria from Moldova, brought to trial, and given sentences. It is curious that Shevchuk does not dispute the fairness of the sentences. He, the former President of the PMR, is outraged that “these crimes were not investigated by the law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Moldova and were not brought to court.” It turns out that he is angry that the Moldovan security forces did not discipline the Transnistrian law enforcement officers, whom he himself had recently led. If someone calls this incitement against their own Pridnestrovians treason to the Motherland, I will not know what to object to.

The above is not a simple slip by Shevchuk. He develops the idea: for the changes he desires, it is necessary to “clean up” some of the “gray capital” partners from Tiraspol in Chisinau and Moscow.” That's the main thing! Shevchuk, as in the case of the Russian special services, wants to “cleanse” Russian officials who do not allow Transnistria to be plunged into the “Maidan in Transnistrian style.”

He also took aim at Russian diplomats, who respond to complaints regarding Transnistria that they do not interfere in the consideration of criminal cases in the PMR: “This is a certain indicator of systemic support for the existing regime in Tiraspol.” But in reality, this is Russia’s understanding of the plans of the opponents of Moscow and Tiraspol to destabilize the situation in Transnistria. And at the same time - work against Russia itself. Thus, data on the claims of several Shevchuk supporters to the European Court of Human Rights was published in the public domain on social networks and in the media. They considered that their rights (in connection with the organization of an unauthorized rally on June 2, 2018 in Tiraspol) were violated. According to the tradition established in the West, Russia was the defendant in the trial. Like, she controls Transnistria, and therefore is responsible for everything, if not organizing everything herself...

It is unlikely that Shevchuk’s supporters did not understand what they were doing with these lawsuits. Especially after the words of the ex-president himself about the “cleansing” of Russian special services, officials and diplomats he dislikes...

 The course is Maidan in the PMR!

Shevchuk does not rely on a change of power through democratic constitutional mechanisms. He bets on the “Maidan”:

“It is necessary to dismantle the existing political system... I believe that the “HACKET IS READY”, LEFT TO BRING A “MATCH” (emphasis added - A.S.). There is a real chance to mobilize the population for civil protests. Organized, peaceful and massive civil pressure, in my opinion, - an effective tool and the only way that can lead to positive change. The time for change is coming!”

So, we are promised shocks soon, this year, so that a handful of random individuals, relying on external opponents of Transnistria and Russia, will head a puppet administration under the control of Chisinau and the West. This is proven by Shevchuk’s vision of the future of Transnistria and Moldova, between which “there will be no borders for people, goods, or capital, which have overcome the contradictions of modern history, aimed at creating an environment for development, and not a sphere of geopolitical, nationalist and linguistic demagoguery.”

This is also a key point of his program. Shevchuk pretends not to know about the multidirectional vectors of foreign policy orientation of the PMR and the RM, as well as the fact that ALL leaders of Moldova demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from the banks of the Dniester, that they are simultaneously trying to take control of the Transnistrian-Ukrainian border. What Shevchuk says, the leaders of Chisinau also say, invariably and firmly adding: everything will be done strictly within the framework of the Association Agreement between the EU and Moldova.

All of the above suggests that Shevchuk is involved in this game and is floating with this flow...

Conclusion

There are many problems in Transnistria. The authorities have made and continue to make mistakes. There is also bureaucratic arbitrariness. Like everywhere else, we also have bribe takers. Some of them, including Shevchuk himself, who was found guilty by the court of such a bad deed, have been convicted.

But all this does not mean that the Pridnestrovians will begin to destroy their state with their own hands in order to fall under the power of the Chisinau nationalists and their puppets. Even if these puppets were once in high ranks in Transnistria itself...

Therefore, we can already predict that Shevchuk’s dreams of “matches” that he will bring to the Transnistrian “stack” will face the same inglorious collapse that ended his entire inglorious reign.