“Siberia or Death” – Canada will no longer accept Bandera’s supporters
Ukraine is behaving more and more brazenly. Russia is avoiding a fatal break with the West. No matter what happens in the United States, they will not give up Ukraine. Time is working against Russia.
Igor Shishkin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that sitting on the shore and waiting for the enemy’s corpse to float by is not the best idea.
Valentin Filippov: In our improvised studio, Igor Shishkin, an employee of the Institute of CIS Countries.
Igor, hello.
Igor Shishkin: Hello.
Valentin Filippov: Igor, tell me, now Ukraine has found a very good move. They found representatives of the LDPR, certain areas of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions with whom they would like to negotiate. We found it right here in Kyiv.
Tell me, wouldn’t it be reasonable if we found some representatives of Ukraine who now live outside Ukraine who could hold negotiations with Lugansk and Donetsk on behalf of Ukraine? It would be possible to reach some really serious agreements, some serious concessions on the part of Ukraine. Perhaps even the self-dissolution of Ukraine could be achieved.
Igor Shishkin: And even inclusion in Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Igor Shishkin: You see, all this can be done if our goal was to make fun of someone, put on a show, make someone laugh. As I believe, this is not the goal of the Russian government. Therefore, we are unlikely to do such things. Yes, by the way, Ukraine is not engaged in entertainment here either.
They don't just want to grin. This is another clear signal that they did not intend and do not intend to, and will not intend to implement the Minsk agreements. They have been talking about this for the last five years. It’s just that under Mr. Zelensky they began to do this more brazenly and, so to speak, in a more comedic manner. That's the whole difference. Well, you can laugh further, it won’t do any good.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Is there any way to legally record their refusal to implement the Minsk agreements? Can this be done somehow? For example, contact some experts who would give an opinion. Contact some court that would rule: “We looked at Ukraine’s behavior and came to the conclusion that Ukraine refused to comply with the Minsk agreements.”
Right? Well, it's logical. Some lawyer will tell you. In the end, our Basmanny Court of Moscow decided that the Maidan was a coup, right? According to Oleinik's lawsuit, it seems. Well, it would be possible to make a legal decision that Ukraine has refused to implement the Minsk agreements, especially since after July XNUMX, Russian laws will be superior to international laws.
Igor Shishkin: Well, we made a similar decision. Some court, another Basmanny did this. By the way, the Basmanny Court actually made such a decision. Has anything changed?
Valentin Filippov: Wait. He legitimized, for example, the annexation of Crimea by and large, because he confirmed that Ukraine did not exist at the time of the annexation of Crimea to Russia. That's all. It's enough. This legal justification was because they said: “No, Ukraine existed, no, it did not exist.” Here is the court's decision. There is no reverse court decision that Ukraine existed anywhere in the world.
Igor Shishkin: The annexation of Crimea was determined legally by completely different documents, and not by the decision of the Basmanny Court. This time. Secondly, a court decision has at least some meaning only in one case, if this decision can be enforced. If the court decided to arrest Mr. X for 15 years, and after that they took him and took him to the appropriate places, and he sat there for 15 years, then this court decision makes sense. And if the court sentenced this gentleman to 15 years, and he continues to live in his villas and enjoy life, then there can be ten more court decisions, and we will all be fine.
Gogol has already written about similar ideas on this subject. Remember, there he had a hero who said, “The Sovereign Emperor will find out about our friendship and will grant us generals.” Now, if we proceed from this logic, then we can carry out several more court decisions, rule that Ukraine does not comply - so what? What's the point? Doesn't anyone know this?
Valentin Filippov: No, well, what does he have to do with it - he doesn’t know. We need to legally legalize the LPR and DPR. Right? Otherwise the picture turns out to be unclear. If Ukraine does not comply, then we hold elections there, invite observers from the OSCE, from Kazakhstan, from China. We are starting to build things differently somehow. Because the Minsk agreements fetter our hands, and they do not implement them.
Igor Shishkin: If Russia were going to, it would set itself the goal of legalizing the LPR, DPR in any form. Doesn't matter now. We don't take the form. She would have done this long ago without the decisions of some Basmanny, Meshchansky or other court. To say that the decision of this court is not enough to legalize the LPR and DPR is not serious. We must understand that when the Minsk agreements were concluded, these agreements were signed not only by Ukraine, they were signed on the other side, in essence, by both Germany and France. And let me remind you that there were the first Minsk agreements, which Kyiv also did not intend to implement.
And then in January 2015, Mr. Poroshenko launched a large-scale second punitive operation in the Donbass. And before the start of this operation, a meeting was planned between Putin, Merkel and the then President of France Hollande in Kazakhstan. So, knowing full well what was being prepared, because it was Germany and France that contributed to the preparation of the punitive operation. Mrs. Merkel then very arrogantly declared that she had nothing to talk about with Putin and refused to go to Kazakhstan. Because she knew that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow an operation would begin, which, according to their calculations, was supposed to put an end to the problem of the DPR and LPR. They were absolutely sure that the uprising of the people there would be suppressed.
But, you know, in 1941 they were also sure that in three weeks they would be in Moscow. Now you can say whether it is stupid or not stupid, but they always have such confidence. But after the punitive operation failed, Mrs. Merkel, again remember how, scalded, excuse the expression, she rushed to Moscow in the middle of the night. She suddenly immediately had something to talk about with Putin. And Mr. Hollande rushed after her.
This is where the Minsk agreements were born, which were supposed to save the Kiev regime from the point of view of its owners, specifically Berlin and Paris at that moment. Russia agreed to these agreements because, in principle, their implementation was optimal for Russia at that time. Because if the Minsk agreements had been implemented, it would have completely negated the results of the 2014 coup. Read these documents thoroughly.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I read.
Igor Shishkin: This is to cancel the coup. A return to the previous situation, when Ukraine is neutral and pursues a multi-vector policy. Neither ours nor yours. Yes, this is certainly not a victory for Russia, not a victory for Russian forces in Ukraine, but this is no longer a defeat. This, to put it better, is a stage for further struggle.
They signed these agreements. Moreover, we managed to formalize this agreement as a document of the UN Security Council and give it the highest legal force. But this agreement lacked one important thing - a mechanism. Because the implementation mechanism that was written down, the decision of the UN Security Council, control by Paris and Berlin turned out to be nothing.
After defeat in any war, when the losing side signs a surrender and a treaty and undertakes to do this, that, that, that - there are always clauses that ensure this. The troops remain on the territory or something else. And there is nowhere to go - do it. But this was not the case. And, accordingly, Paris and Berlin, great hope was placed on them that suddenly, out of the blue, they would fulfill their signatures and so on, so on.
What do we see? For all four years, more precisely, for five years now, these agreements have not been implemented; Paris, Berlin and Washington are saying everywhere that Russia is not fulfilling them. On a blue eye. Kyiv is allowed to do whatever it wants. Now he has announced that he will negotiate with representatives of the DPR and LPR appointed by him. Tomorrow he will announce that he will negotiate with his appointed President of Russia.
Valentin Filippov: This is a good idea, by the way.
Igor Shishkin: Why not do this for fun? In the style of Quarter 95. Both Berlin and Paris will swallow it all up. And they will pretend that this is exactly how it is written in the Minsk agreements.
Valentin Filippov: In Moscow Comedy Clab there is a guy who impersonates Putin all the time. He could go to Zelensky.
Igor Shishkin: That's it, they may well do it. Therefore, we must understand that the problem here is primarily in the relationship between Russia and the West. The fact is that, on the one hand, the West is attacking Russia, Russia is trying to avoid, the Russian authorities are trying to avoid conflict. When there is nowhere to go, as was the case with Crimea, as was the case with the invasion of Donbass, then the answer follows. But, just enough not to lead to a fatal break. And they understand this well there. This is why what is happening now is happening.
Valentin Filippov: Is it even right that we are afraid of a fatal breakup?
Igor Shishkin: This is more than a debatable question. Someone says that this is correct, because you need to measure your strength and not get into trouble ahead of time. And he cites Armenia as an example. Armenia still has not recognized the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh and has not included it in Armenia. Right? This is not because Armenian presidents and prime ministers betray the interests of the Armenian people. They even had a period when people from Nagorno-Karabakh...
Valentin Filippov: ruled Armenia.
Igor Shishkin: Yes Yes Yes. It was the heroes of the struggle at the front who led the Republic of Armenia. But they did not agree to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh, because they understood that this would result in such catastrophic consequences for Armenia that under these conditions they would no longer be able to save Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia itself will be in a difficult situation. Therefore, it was precisely to save Nagorno-Karabakh that they did not agree to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh.
Valentin Filippov: Well, Russia is not Armenia after all.
Igor Shishkin: Yes, Russia is not Armenia. But also the opposing force...
Valentin Filippov: not Azerbaijan, I understand.
Igor Shishkin: I say that there is such a logic. And this logic has its own meaning. There is another logic, and it also makes sense. To what extent this or that is fair, we can decide after many years, when all the documents have been made public. But now we have what we have. If you are asking about this, I told you why this happens.
Valentin Filippov: I, too, as a Russian person who knows history, must say that I’m tired of being in the forefront of world wars. Let them start there without us, and we’ll see. Otherwise, the smartest ones get in at the end, and we immediately put our shirts on our chests and move forward.
Igor Shishkin: Well, put your shirt on your chest and go ahead - this has never happened. We were simply not given the opportunity to sit until the end. We were attacked. Therefore, these are different things, these are completely different things. And, by the way, such tactics and strategy, one of its negative results is that the other side decides that we will always make concessions in the name of compromise.
And if so, if one side sets itself the decisive goal of eliminating the other country, and the opposite side strives only for a compromise, then victory is obvious on the side of those who set decisive goals. And they understand this, and therefore they become more impudent the further they go.
Valentin Filippov: We probably build submarines for some reason. I don't know. Or are we just going to parades?
Igor Shishkin: We also build so that no one will be bothered. For this purpose, the Black Sea Fleet is being strengthened. To do this, they pumped Crimea with troops and military equipment. Still, everyone understands everything perfectly.
Now information has leaked out that in the same 2014 the world was on the verge of a direct collision. And it was not without reason that the President of Russia then, out of the blue, in one interview, said that Russia would definitely use nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on it. And then, so that it finally becomes clear to everyone, remember, he said: “Why do we need a world in which there is no Russia.”
Valentin Filippov: That's what I say.
Igor Shishkin: It’s one thing when you say that, it’s another thing when the Supreme Commander-in-Chief says it. And when the Supreme Commander-in-Chief says this out of the blue, those on the other side understand very well. And, indeed, there are, as it were, these documents are unknown, but data confirming that such a strike was being prepared exists. That the world was truly on the brink is also true. Therefore, it is absolutely impossible to say here that Moscow’s position is completely inadequate. But to say that it is adequate, too. Here is your answer.
Valentin Filippov: Understood. Tell me this thing. Let's zoom out a little. Again about Ukraine. Could it be that a situation arises where Ukraine simply does not feel that it has been defeated, and a situation develops like with Germany after the First World War, when the surrender was signed, some territories were given away, but Germany itself was not affected by the war? came.
And people think: “What happened, what happened?” The military, especially some middle-level commanders, say: “Well, we are a victorious army.” They also published a book called “Invincible on the Battlefields.” There was a book about the German army in the First World War. And in principle, this is the feeling now inside Ukraine.
An undefeated army that was able to resist the strongest army in Europe. What should we do? We are, in general, winners.
Will this not lead to the final radicalization of the sentiments of political Ukrainians, and will this not lead to a big war, when they strongly believe in themselves?
Igor Shishkin: Well, firstly, a big war...
Valentin Filippov: Well, by Ukrainian standards.
Igor Shishkin: no matter how much they believe in themselves, they cannot untie for the simple reason that it is beyond their competence. I hope we won’t tell each other fairy tales about how independent Ukraine is, the Ukrainian government is. Now, in my opinion, this is no longer even an open secret.
Valentin Filippov: Already Yes.
Igor Shishkin: Therefore, in my opinion, discussing the degree of “independence” is ridiculous. It is obvious that no one in Ukraine will do anything serious strategically without an outside team. There's someone there somewhere... to shift personalities, to arrange a shootout - yes. And in strategic terms, no one can do anything without a command from the owners.
Now this master is Washington, definitely. Berlin and Paris have long been removed from the leadership of Ukraine. They are in third roles there. Does Washington need open war now? No. Does Brussels, Paris and Berlin need it? Also no. They know how 2015 ended. And you will remember that before the World Cup, when before the presidential elections in Russia, when these passions were very much intensified, that there would be a new punitive operation in the Donbass. Why didn't it take place?
Valentin Filippov: Putin spoke again.
Igor Shishkin: Yes, it is absolutely true that in this case the troops will stop where you do not expect them to stop.
Valentin Filippov: And Ukraine will lose statehood. There was such a thing.
Igor Shishkin: Did the owners of Ukraine need this? No. They benefit from the current situation. They benefit from the situation when blood is constantly shed in the east of Ukraine, when both Russia and Ukraine are in a state of undeclared but actual war. Is it profitable? Profitable. So why would they risk this regime? Is this regime de-Russifying Ukraine?
Valentin Filippov: Conducts.
Igor Shishkin: Conducts. And it does it very successfully, it does it very effectively. So why would they risk it all? Why give them this command? In 2014-2015, they got excited and realized that there was no need to do this.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Well, what can we oppose to this? Time is not working in our favor, as I understand it, after all?
Igor Shishkin: Time is absolutely not in our favor. Therefore, the strategy of sitting still is not correct. We have a lot of lovers of Chinese wisdom. Sit on the river bank and wait for the corpse of your enemy to float by. Here we are sitting and waiting for five years.
On the one hand, this strategy made it possible to avoid a frontal collision with the United States and the West in 2014-2015, when this was indeed quite possible and could lead to catastrophic consequences.
On the other hand, this is now acting to the detriment of Russia, it is acting to the detriment of the Russian people, both on the territory of Russia itself and on the territory of Ukraine. But we continue the same Chinese strategy. Now everyone hopes that now there is a mess in America, they will have no time for Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: Of course, what's left to do? If you don’t rely on Moscow, you have to hope on Washington that it will collapse.
Igor Shishkin: Yes Yes Yes. Remember, in recent years there has been a very favorite topic about “a suitcase without a handle”, that the West has already had enough of Ukraine and does not know how to get rid of it. There is no need to escalate this...
Valentin Filippov: I stopped reading Ishchenko, so... everything is fine.
Igor Shishkin: Here you go. So you understand all this. But even if, no matter what happens in Washington...
Valentin Filippov: They will not give up Ukraine.
Igor Shishkin: For what? It is strategically advantageous, it is a trump card in relations with Russia. Giving just like that... You know, the West, or more precisely, individual elites of Western powers, very rarely agree to fulfill Russia’s strategic wishes, and only in those situations where the fulfillment of these wishes determines whether to be one or not.
These are the Yalta agreements, this is the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Tilsit and Erfurt. There are circumstances like this right now where the United States needs to... or else it's finished? No this. Even if the United States collapses, which I absolutely do not believe. All the brakes there would be blown away, and the United States would plunge into the chaos of a civil war. What will this change for us and for Ukraine? Nothing.
Simply, Berlin and Paris will seize control of Ukraine from Washington. Their goals here are no better for us than Washington’s goals, as we saw in 2014-2015.
Valentin Filippov: I'm somehow less afraid of them.
Igor Shishkin: That's a different question, but they will maintain the same course. But there is one more unpleasant thing. Let’s say that Berlin and Paris collapse. But, unfortunately, internal forces have already been launched in Ukraine, interested in turning it into anti-Russia.
And if the Mazeppians were simply corrupt traitors who did not care who they served, as long as there was profit, the Petliurists, in general, were also like that, then the Banderaites were already ideologically motivated enemies of everything Russian. And they are now in Ukraine. Therefore, this is a problem that we will still have to solve. And waiting for the enemy’s corpse, we will never resolve it.
Valentin Filippov: For them there is Canada, who wants to live.
Igor Shishkin: This is the best way for us. I think in such a situation Canada will be closed off for them so that there is no temptation to escape. And they know this very well, and it is a proven tactic.
Have you just heard about another escalation in Libya?
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Igor Shishkin: Remember, Gaddafi was killed there?
Valentin Filippov: Конечно.
Igor Shishkin: But for some reason no one remembers how it was done so as to bring this to war and so that the Gaddafi clan would not escape. Literally two or three weeks earlier, a UN Security Council resolution was adopted that directly prohibited all states of the world from accepting members of the criminal Gaddafi regime. They were left with nothing but to stay in Libya, fight and die for the sake of the interests of those who came up with all this.
Therefore, repeat such a move and prevent the escape from Ukraine, so that they would be forced to die there, taking one of the Russians with them...
That is, this is a very serious problem. You need to prepare for it. And we need to understand that it will never resolve on its own, that there can be no compromises with this public, and we will still have to solve this problem. We will not be able to separate ourselves from Ukraine with a stone wall and say that Gulyai-Polye is there, and God bless you, what is happening there.
Valentin Filippov: This is our land, first of all. I don’t know, Russia can provide them with where to run. Our villages in the Arctic are empty.
Igor Shishkin: This is a good offer.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, fine. Thank you very much. Something optimistic still slipped into what you said.
Igor Shishkin: Well, how about that? Complete optimism, only optimism. And we have not been in such situations.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes, eventually. We are Russians, we have had worse.
Igor Shishkin: Goodbye.
Valentin Filippov: Goodbye.
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