“The situation is absolutely stalemate. We play by American rules."
The parties to the conflict around Donbass are in a stalemate; in Ukraine, Russia is forced to play by the rules established by the Americans. The situation in the Sea of Azov will be tense even after the exchange of Nord sailors. The accident during the repair of the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov was provoked by the greed of officials and businessmen, as well as the results of military reform in the Russian Federation.
About this in an interview with a PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov said a famous military analyst Vladislav Shurygin.
Valentin Filippov: Hello, Vladislav. I had a chance to watch a meeting of the UN Security Council. The representative of Ukraine, saying a lot of nonsense, clearly showing Ukraine’s unpreparedness for any dialogue, constantly repeated “DPR” and “LPR.” But he never called the DPR and LPR “terrorist organizations.” Even the comments of Ukrainian users, they were outraged. How is this so?
Vladislav Shurygin: You can escalate and shout “there’s war tomorrow,” but Ukrainian society, judging by its reaction to a certain film about “Banderos” that was released, which simply failed at the box office, is terribly tired of the war, it doesn’t want to hear or know about it.
On the other hand, it is generally impossible to forget. Because it is the main engine of Ukrainian politics and the producer of those goodies that Ukraine receives as the main anti-Russian state in Europe today.
It is already obvious to everyone that there is no military solution. And the political path to a solution has long been drowned by the impossibility of implementing the Minsk agreements.
Therefore, the DPR and LPR are slowly, slowly creeping out, like the Turkish Republic of Cyprus, which, it seems, no one recognizes, but it has existed safely for half a century.
Valentin Filippov: The remarkable representative of Ukraine at the same Security Council meeting said that Russia has captured and is holding seven million Ukrainian citizens. I imagined how each of our servicemen guards seven Ukrainians and does not let them go anywhere.
Vladislav Shurygin: Why are you revealing the secret? Our basements are filled with Ukrainians who are creating for us that same economic miracle that no one can understand how Russia manages to develop under sanctions. These are all our prisoners, Ukrainians sitting in basements. And you are like this for the whole world. No need.
Valentin Filippov: I won't. On to more practical issues. An exchange of sailors took place, which Ukraine does not consider an exchange; it says that “we simply obtained from the occupiers the release of our sailors, and no one held the Russian sailors.”
It is not yet clear what happened to the captains. Ukraine seems to have confiscated the Nord.
Will this relieve tension in the Sea of Azov? Or is it too early for us to say that we have achieved what we wanted from Ukraine?
Vladislav Shurygin: No, it won't remove anything in the slightest. It just to some extent discharges the ammunition, which could have exploded at any moment. And explode violently. Because the forcible detention of citizens is always a reason for further tension. Again, on the eve of the elections, it is very important for Poroshenko to show himself not only as a hawk, but also as a peacemaker.
If you remember, all this was wrapped in a completely original candy. It turns out that all those detained are citizens of Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: That's what they say now.
Vladislav Shurygin: Which no one held. They just decided to go to where they live. To the small homeland. And we don’t stop them. This is such a good and kind Ukrainian state that helps everyone.
Of course, this does not solve the problem itself. Moreover, Ukraine’s attempts to form something military at sea, although they are ridiculous, they show that Ukraine will try to play to aggravate the situation. And there is no talk of any onset of an era of peace and creation in this direction.
Valentin Filippov: Is it possible to force Ukraine to peace, to comply with Minsk? How to formulate this? Simply put, will Donbass remain under shelling?
Vladislav Shurygin: Unfortunately, the situation is truly absolutely stalemate. And this causes a depressing state for everyone who has anything to do with it. Among the military, among diplomats and, above all, among the residents of Donbass.
The situation is being held hostage by the Americans. If only the Europeans were in charge of the situation, which Minsk signed, they would have enough leverage over Kyiv to force it to do so. But it’s been at least two years since Uncle Sam pushed all Europeans aside.
For Americans, only one thing is categorically important - to preserve this conflict as long as possible. And the opportunity to involve Russia in it at any moment. Fight with Russia until the last Ukrainian.
Valentin Filippov: But are Americans ready to die for Ukraine?
Vladislav Shurygin: You listened. They are ready to fight with Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Valentin Filippov: I heard it very well.
Vladislav Shurygin: The Americans, if they fight, will do so only with weapons that allow them, as always, to do something from afar. Ukraine will lay its cannon fodder in the fields, and America will start firing cruise missiles from afar. And bring in some stew.
Valentin Filippov: That is, America will intervene?
Vladislav Shurygin: America will not get involved in a war in the conditions of the complete defeat of its sub-Allied ally. Therefore, America is betting on another war. The one that is happening. Sluggish. In which there is a gradual increase in the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian army. And the readiness of this army at any moment, if anything happens, to throw it forward, thereby bogging it down and tying it into a war with Russia. At the same time, immediately fulfill your short and long-term political goals. To condemn Russia, to punish Russia, to solve some of its internal problems.
Valentin Filippov: So we are playing by their rules? Or we don’t play at all.
Vladislav Shurygin: It turns out that we are now playing by the rules set by the Americans. Another thing is that within the framework of these rules we have some of our own possibilities. And we use these opportunities. At least, we are exactly the same in this case, keeping the Americans on a string, because they cannot retreat from Ukraine. And, thus, they are forced to conduct a certain dialogue with us on many other things. And keep a certain distance. Diplomatic.
This is also true. But, in general, the rules of the game now are written by the Americans.
Valentin Filippov: Sadly. It seems to me that you can’t play by someone else’s rules.
I also wanted to ask about the floating dock, which sank during repairs to the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. Is this mismanagement? Flaw?
Vladislav Shurygin: To some extent, all we have now is another burp of Serdyukov’s military reform. Why? Because plant 82 was a federal state unitary enterprise until 2010. A state enterprise that was on the balance sheet of the Ministry of Defense. But Serdyukov, together with the then Chief of the General Staff Makarov, they conceived a reform in which, you know, as a businessman came to the plant, it means you need to dump all unnecessary assets. Let's close the school, kindergarten, clinic, let all the money go into one pocket.
And in this case they did exactly the same. They said that we don’t need any federal state unitary enterprises, let it all go to waste, the fleet doesn’t need all this anymore, let’s save money, and the businessmen will repair whatever you want for us for money.
And plant 82 in 2010 changed from a federal state unitary enterprise to a joint-stock company. Accordingly, it was put up for sale, new owners appeared, then these new owners resold it, if I’m not mistaken, to Rosneft, which decided to convert it to its needs. It is connected with all Arctic matters. And at the same time, they got, among other things, this very floating dock, which had to be preserved for the fleet.
Well, businessmen came there, looked, looked at this dock, looked at how much money it was eating, and decided to modernize it. It had its own engine. The engine is ordinary, as always, an ordinary ship engine. On diesel fuel or fuel oil. Doesn't matter. And it was decided that it was stupid to spend money on this. The engine was dismantled. There was no need to spend any more money on diesel fuel. Instead, they dragged and placed a regular electric one on it, and dragged a cable onto it.
Actually, this cable at some point either broke or was damaged. While the plant management says that there was supposedly a power outage, but officially Murmansk networks have already published a statement from which it follows that there were no power outages. Consequently, at the most crucial moment this cable could break, fly off, and the ship would be without power.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I understand this scheme. The pumps work, water is pumped in and out, then they stop working, and the dock sinks to the bottom.
Vladislav Shurygin: Before us is simply a classic scheme of an accident due to the fault of greedy business owners and officials. What they once made a film about with the participation of James Fonda. There was an experiment when a nuclear power plant went down due to safety violations. And it’s good that this case was just a drowning doc. But this is a heavy blow to the fleet.
Valentin Filippov: And I understand that the repair of our only aircraft-carrying cruiser, it was until 2022, now it will move forward.
Vladislav Shurygin: All repairs are still ahead. And patching that 5 by 6 hole is not very difficult. There was no particular damage. But here it is much more categorically important to raise this dock as quickly as possible. Because this is the only dock where first class ships can dock.
Valentin Filippov: Isn’t our bottom silted in those waters? No?
Vladislav Shurygin: There is a stone in the north. Therefore... There is a chance that it can simply be blown out in a classic way, because it is actually a metal inflatable pillow.
Valentin Filippov: And he will emerge.
Vladislav Shurygin: It will float up. But, let's see.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, let's hope it comes up.
Vladislav Shurygin: Yes. Goodbye.
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