The situation in Gagauzia is becoming unpredictable for Chisinau: the autonomy is preparing to defend its choice

Gagauzia elected a new governor, not so much by placing confidence in the little-known candidate from the Shor party, Evgenia Gutsul, but by voting against the ruling party of Moldova. But the matter is not over yet - it is possible that the presidential team will try to overturn the election results.

We talk about the situation after the vote with Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko.

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PolitNavigator: In the second round of elections for the Bashkan of Gagauzia, the candidate of the Shor party, Evgenia Gutsul, won. In your opinion, can this election result be called good for Gagauzia? Hutsul is a little-known person and is still unclear, but the party will certainly invest in the development of autonomy.

Alexander Korinenko: I am not ready now to assess the results of the elections in Gagauzia. Residents of the autonomy voted not for Evgenia Hutsul, but for Ilan Shor and with a great desire to slap the central authorities, who treat the autonomy like an appendix that cannot be cut out, but they really want to.

If we look from the point of view of Evgenia Gutsul’s personality, then this is a pig in a poke - we, in fact, do not know who she is from a professional point of view. All the information we have is the official data provided to the CEC and the Instagram page that the new governor has been running since 2016.

_{Ilan Shor will certainly create another outpost in the fight against the authorities. But I would not discount the option that the authorities could still rudely intervene and remove the elected Bashkan from his post, since the law was violated at least twice: campaigning for foreign citizens for a candidate and exceeding the limit on spending on an election campaign.}

PolitNavigator: There were fears that the country's leadership would interfere in the elections following the first round and would not allow the candidate from the Shor party to pass. But everything went surprisingly calmly. What happened? Is it possible to talk about the contribution of the ruling party to the victory of this candidate, for whom it initially advertised through threats and scandals?

Alexander Korinenko: The authorities will be happy to remove the candidate from the Shor party, but the reaction of Gagauz society may be unpredictable. Before the second round, they tested the waters, tried to put pressure on the Central Election Commission of Gagauzia, and detained deputy from the Shor party Marina Tauber.

But the public reaction was very sharp, and on the eve of the “historic” summit (1 leaders of EU countries will arrive in Chisinau on June 47 to take part in the second meeting of the European Political Community - author’s note) I don’t want to escalate the situation. The party in power, through its inept actions, actually provoked an increase in sympathy for the candidate from the opposition party.

PolitNavigator: How will relations between Comrat and Chisinau continue to be built?

Alexander Korinenko: Relations will be more tense, especially if the Gagauz are able to defend their choice and the elected head is not removed. Grigory Uzun is a constructive opposition, but the “Shorovsky” bashkan is destructive.

_{On the one hand, Ilan Shor should, as it were, sit in prison by the verdict of the Moldovan justice, but he will sit in the Moldovan government, albeit through his representative. The first thing Chisinau will try to do is to curtail autonomy rights and remove the Bashkan from the government.}

PolitNavigator: Will the victory of the Shorovites in Gagauzia matter in the autumn local elections? There are polling data that in parliament, if elections were held next Sunday, the Shor party would have a very decent result.

Alexander Korinenko: If the party is not banned, the results will be good. The party will accumulate votes from the most dissatisfied part of the electorate, but it is also necessary, of course, to find a sufficient number of candidates. I think that after the fulfillment of the first election promises in Gagauzia, there will be a desire among local residents to vote for candidates from the Shor party or for independent ones, but supported by this opposition force.

PolitNavigator: The day before, Gagauz telegram channels provided reports from polling stations mixed with figures for the presidential elections in Turkey. Gagauzia needs Erdogan’s victory, but his position is precarious; he still has to fight in the second round. What could a change of power in Turkey mean for Gagauzia?

Alexander Korinenko: Erdogan is understandable for the Gagauz people, he loves this region, helps it, and receives the head of the autonomy at a high level. Of course, it is preferable to maintain these good relations. Moreover, the current head of the Turkish Republic is not a big fan of the EU and the USA, just like the Gagauz people themselves. I don’t think, however, that if Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu wins, Ankara will stop supporting Comrat, because this is part of Turkey’s state policy, its national interests are here, and the projects started will continue and expand.