Storytellers from the IMF predict economic growth for Ukraine in 2016. But they are in no hurry to lend money
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that the decline in Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) will slow from 6,8% in 2014 to 5,5% in 2015, and its recovery is expected from 2016, following which it will increase by 2%.
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The IMF published such data in the World Economic Outlook (WEO), updated every six months.
“The Ukrainian economy is expected to bottom out in 2015 as economic activity stabilizes with the start of reconstruction work,” the document says.
According to WEO, average annual inflation in Ukraine this year will accelerate to 33,5% from 12,1% a year earlier, and next year it will slow down to 10,6%.
The IMF also expects the current account deficit to shrink from 4% of GDP last year to 1,4% of GDP this year and 1,3% of GDP next year.
The Fund estimates that unemployment will peak at 11,5% this year and fall by half a percent to 11% next year.
At the same time, as Politnavigator previously reported, Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalya Yaresko admitted that if Ukraine’s negotiations on restructuring the current external debt do not succeed by the end of May, by the time the IMF program is revised for $17,5 billion, then the country may be left without a second IMF tranche.
Also the other day стало известно that a group of foreign creditors, with whom the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance is currently negotiating the restructuring of the national debt, does not want to write off anything to Ukraine, but is only ready to defer payments. This statement was made by the head of the emerging markets department of Rogge Global Partners Plc, which manages $6 billion in debt, Michael Ganske.
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