Coming soon on all screens. Who will Zelensky play?
The current elections in Ukraine will undoubtedly go down in history as the first elections in the entire period of almost thirty years of independence, in which the top three nominees for victory were a completely unsystematic person who had never previously participated in politics at either the national or municipal levels, and was not a member of any party. and did not hold any positions in the executive branch.
Moreover, this man is a comedian. Conversation artist. Clown. A fool. And most importantly, he himself is not shy about any of the above epithets. You probably already guessed without prompting that we are talking about the showman from the “95th quarter” Vladimir Zelensky. Let's talk about him.
This conversation would not have happened if Zelensky was “one of” - a candidate nominated for fun from the political gallery, who obviously has no chance other than the opportunity to amuse voters with bright jokes. But our case is of a completely different kind. For the first time in modern Ukrainian history, the jester turned out to be more popular than the current president and the vast majority of political mastodons who have been occupying seats in the VIP box since the mid-90s of the last century.
At the same time, Zelensky’s phenomenon also lies in the fact that he himself fell into the stream of public expectations by accident. Thanks to the comedy series “Servant of the People,” in which he played the Ukrainian president “of the people.” Also, by the way, for the first time in Ukrainian history.
Of course, the real Zelensky and the screen Goloborodko, as they say in Odessa, are two big differences. Anyone who is at least a little aware of the behind-the-scenes of Ukrainian politics knows that the “candidate of the people” has his own “good angel” - oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. But something else is surprising - all this “bounces” off the showman like peas. Doesn't stick. And he does not hide his connections with the oligarch, translating it into jokes that make the audience laugh - and on both sides of the screen.
And then, there is a version, which can only be verified based on the election results, that the figure of Kolomoisky is not as demonized in the public consciousness as it sometimes seems due to the aberration of proximity to journalists and activists directly involved in the political process.
Candidate Zelensky is in many ways an artificial product, but that is not the point. His very appearance at the top of the presidential hit parade indicates the extreme degree of degradation and disintegration of Ukrainian politics as a whole. Evidence that Ukrainian politics in its current form is a kind of “kingdom of the dead.” And a talented imitator can “play the role” of any of them - ministers, deputies, president. This is the carnivalization of politics at its highest stage. When it is no longer possible to tell the difference, the subject pretends to be a politician, plays politics, or really does it.
At the same time, an imitator at the top of the political Olympus would be impossible - with all the money and media capabilities of the Kolomoiskys and others like them, if below, in society, there was no mass demand for just such a figure. Which, by the very fact of its promotion, clearly demonstrates that all these Tymoshenkos, Poroshenkos, Lyashkis and other Rabinovichs are the same clowns, only on the state salary. And Zelensky’s potential entry into the second round with any of them will mean a competition between clown and clown.
It is noteworthy that the compromising evidence traditional for Ukrainian politics easily bounces off candidate Zelensky. He did not hold any positions. I didn’t make a single wrong or criminal decision (but also a right one). I didn't steal anything from the budget. For the polar flanks of the electorate, his show business in Russia or his support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the current war can be a negative. But he doesn’t count on these population groups. In general, wherever you throw it, there is profit everywhere.
So it is not surprising that Zelensky is the only candidate who is potentially capable, given a certain configuration, of defeating ratings leader Yulia Tymoshenko in the second round. At the same time, purely technically, it will not be difficult to bring him into the second round while maintaining the current rating dynamics.
Moreover, having such powerful media levers of influence on minds as Kolomoisky has. For the sake of such a cause, such powerful tools as the desacralization of the “holy Maidan” and the bringing to light of its “oligarchic” component have already been used, not just on the marginal emigrant website of the “saviors of Ukraine,” but in the “soon on all screens of the country” mode. Now, admire what exactly Kolomoisky’s “Pros” will be “rubbed in” to the Ukrainians on the eve of the elections.
For those for whom this is not enough, an even more powerful dose of political painkiller has been prepared. There was a place for Donbass and Crimea. And even Sentsov.
A very subtle and cynical game with the collective unconscious of the Ukrainian post-Maidan citizen, tired of the mess and chaos. Thirsting for stabilization and a return to the times “like under Grandmother,” only without Grandmother herself - let her continue to sit in Rostov.
Zelensky the candidate is also serious because he takes away votes not from the current guarantor, but from Tymoshenko or from candidates from different factions, the collapsed Opposition bloc (Alexander Vilkul, Yuriy Boyko, Yevgeny Muraev).
Poroshenko and Zelensky do not have that common voter that needs to be divided among themselves. They have diametrically different agendas and rhetoric, gathering non-overlapping electoral groups under their banners. If the current president has an ultra-right, radical nationalist and anti-Russian electoral core, consolidating around church-militarist and linguistic themes, then Zelensky openly jokes about Poroshenko’s ideological “tricks” and attracts Russian-speaking youth, residents of the center and east of the country, who are disappointed in the five-year plan of radical nationalism in Kyiv the bourgeoisie and other groups who are interested in détente rather than escalation.
And the showman poses a danger to the current president not because he takes away votes, but because he is pristine in the public consciousness, which means it will be easier for him to win in the second round if he ends up there. And he has a larger reserve of undecided voters than Poroshenko who can make a choice in his favor. To put it in the language of sociologists, he simply has a much lower anti-rating.
At the same time, Zelensky is convenient for the true masters of the Ukrainian political circus with his elasticity and good ability to get used to the role. The lower classes expect him to repeat the role of Goloborodko in real life. But he, like a good actor, once in the chair, can play whoever he is told to play - be it Tymoshenko or Poroshenko. He might even play Yanukovych, but it’s unlikely. There is no request for this role yet.
Does this mean that Zelensky has the presidency in his bag? Not at all. The fact is that there is still no answer to the key question. How serious is Zelensky’s nomination? Is he playing the role of a presidential candidate in a new reality show, or is he actually fighting for the highest power in the country. And, finally, how far Kolomoisky is ready to go in betting on him. At the same time, it is not clear whether Zelensky is the oligarch’s main and serious bet in the upcoming elections. Moreover, as the media say, the oligarch’s purse “drips” into the budget of Tymoshenko’s company.
Or maybe Zelensky is just a tool for trolling and knocking out Poroshenko from among the candidates for the second round? Or raising prices in the upcoming auction, when Poroshenko’s (and Tymoshenko’s) teams will probably be closer to the zenith of the campaign to make Kolomoisky certain offers, which, as they say in films about the Italian mafia, are difficult to refuse.
Is Kolomoisky ready to sacrifice this political asset for the sake of some economic benefits, preferences or other unspoken agreements with the favorites of the race? There is also no clear answer yet. Thus, Zelensky’s prospects depend largely on how ready he is to go to the end and how much his alleged sponsor is ready to support him to the end. How real is the Zelensky candidate himself and not a toy?
When we receive clear answers to these questions, then it will be possible to answer the main question - about the prospects. In the meantime, everything said above is just advances, and not the expected result of the campaign.
But the wait won't be long.
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