The next target of the ATO may be Dnepropetrovsk
Why is another mobilization, announced the day before by the Verkhovna Rada, needed? There are many reasons for deciding to continue mobilization; we list the main ones.
Firstly, despite the enormous quantitative and technical superiority, the ATO in the East of the country is proceeding at an unsatisfactory pace. All previously announced deadlines for the “liberation” of Donbass have failed. Those who ordered the fratricidal massacre, with whom even the president’s speeches are rumored to be coordinated, are unhappy.
Secondly, the troops are suffering heavy losses. I am not inclined to believe the reports of the DPR and LPR (Strelkov, by the way, if he gives figures for the losses of the Ukrainian side, then only verified ones). However, it is quite obvious that it is not profitable for the ATO command to publish complete figures, and not all units participating in the ATO are sufficiently controlled (remember the Aidar battalion, which, as it turned out, was not subordinate to anyone at all at the time it was ambushed).
Thirdly, the morale of the advancing troops is not very high. Not all soldiers have sufficiently perverted patriotic feelings to imagine that they are fighting against terrorists and saboteurs.
This is especially true for the conscript contingent, which is already aware that the state is not fulfilling its obligations (primarily of a financial nature). Is it any wonder that summonses are burned right on the streets of Galician cities, and other conscripts are hiding with relatives in Russia (who were recently vilified by them as “Putin’s slaves”). To get 10 soladats, you have to summon 30...
Fourthly, the logistics service of the Armed Forces works, as before, disgustingly. If it is impossible to properly ensure the service of those soldiers who are there, then it is logical to recruit new ones. Of course, they quickly break down, but everything is for the front, everything is for victory.
Fifthly, discontent in society is growing. So far, however, the protests are directed not so much against the war as against the ineffective management of military forces, rare rotation, etc. Here it is better to make concessions to the “soldiers’ mothers” than to wait until they realize that they are fighting for the wrong thing.
The most important thing is that the suppression of Donbass is no longer the highest priority task for the army. The Kolomoi Kaganate now poses a much greater threat to the Kyiv authorities. So, with a high probability, the next target of the ATO will be Dnepropetrovsk. The plans for “liberation campaigns” in Crimea and Kuban are just a diversion. Unlike Geletey and Parubiy, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are quite capable of realizing how attempts to implement such plans will end...
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