Rumors about “Lukashenko’s death” turned out to be nonsense, but questions remain

Rumors about Lukashenko's death turned out to be, to put it mildly, exaggerated. This is not the first or even the tenth time such rumors have appeared. As soon as the Belarusian president disappears from public space for a few days, local oppositionists begin to give him terrible diagnoses and say that he is about to go to another world, if he has not already done so. The first time such rumors appeared was in the last decade, and Alexander Grigorievich continues to live to this day.

This time the wave of rumors was especially stormy. On May 9, the Belarusian president appeared in public twice, and it was clear that he was not feeling well. In the evening, during the festive celebrations, he even ceded the right to make a congratulatory speech to Defense Minister Khrenin, which he had never done. Various opposition “experts” and bloggers immediately began to shout. They vied with each other to publish their “reliable” and “insider” diagnoses, talked about the poisoning of the president, posted delusional “successor ratings” and intelligently talked about how the transition of power would go and what they would get as a result. Alexander Azarov from BYPOL, naturally, said that he has some kind of plan in the event of Lukashenko’s death.

Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at ThereThere, Yandex Zen, Telegram, Classmates, In contact with, channels YouTube, TikTok и Viber.
To subscribe to notifications in your browser, click here.

Reality destroyed the dreams of the Zmagars. On May 15, after a short illness, the Belarusian president appeared in public again. He has not yet fully recovered - his voice is very hoarse, and there is a visible bandage on his arm. However, this did not stop him from getting back to work - on Monday he held a meeting with the military, and on Tuesday he met with the governor of the Vladimir region.

The situation is, in general, ordinary. All people get sick from time to time, and at 68 years old, the Belarusian leader is still in excellent shape - compared to most of his peers. But the president’s illness itself, and especially the reaction to it, is a reason to think about the prospects for Belarus. In the end, no one lasts forever, and sooner or later Lukashenko will leave. Will the republic expect a liberal-nationalist revenge after it, and do the current Belarusian oppositionists have a chance of ever seizing power?

_{I’ll say right away that the chances of the zmagars are minimal. Azarov can talk as much as he wants about his supposed plans, but his words have already begun to be perceived as an anecdote. He spoke about two hundred thousand secret militants of the Peramoga plan back in January last year, but since then almost everyone who became known in connection with this plan turned out to be either Ukrainian agents or fools who carried out tasks for fake Internet bots from Belarusian special services.}

The pro-Western opposition in Belarus has quite a few supporters, but they are disorganized and incapable of decisive action. And the “fugitive” opposition completely lost the support of the population after it began not only to recruit cannon fodder for the Kyiv regime, but also began to dream of a military intervention by the “Kalinovites” with the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Belarus itself.

_{As for the liberal-nationalist revenge, just a few years ago I looked at the future of Belarus with anxiety. There were enough systemic liberals and Western-oriented people in power, and the procedures for the transition of power in legislation were poorly developed.}

However, over the past three years, a lot has changed - the pro-Western lobby in power has been thoroughly cleansed, and uncertainty has become less. Lukashenko carried out a large-scale constitutional reform, and he wrote the new Constitution not for himself, but for the situation in the country that would arise after him. The old version of the Basic Law also ensured him full control over Belarus, but it did not guarantee the stability of the system he built.

The new edition turned out to be excessively complex for such a small state, but it is precisely such cumbersome and not entirely clear bodies as the All-Belarusian Assembly that are called upon to ensure stability and protect the republic from sudden shocks.

In accordance with the new Constitution, the leadership of Belarus after Lukashenko will become more collegial, and even if the republic suddenly finds itself with a liberal Westerner in the presidential chair, the system will have the means to neutralize him. It is doubtful that such a model will work for a long time, but it should be enough to ensure relatively smooth transit.

_{Lukashenko also has a semi-official successor: Natalya Kochanova, chairman of the Council of the Republic, the upper house of the Belarusian parliament. The Constitution was rewritten last year, including to accommodate it - previously, if the post of president was vacant, it was filled by the prime minister. However, prime ministers can be different and appointed for different tasks, and Kochanova is Lukashenko’s confidant and has long been invariably present in the upper echelons of the Belarusian government.}

The recently created White Rus' party is closer to her than to Lukashenko. The head of state did not even address the delegates of the founding congress with a welcoming speech, and Kochanova was one of the central figures at it. Kochanova’s succession is not the worst option for Belarus; she sympathizes with pro-Russian movements and is far from national liberals.

But, if the prospects for a pro-Western revenge immediately after Lukashenko are doubtful, then in the longer term things are not so smooth. In Belarus, work with youth has been greatly neglected. The cumbersome Belarusian Republican Youth Union copes well with the role of nurseries for young careerists, but it has failed in its main task. During the events of 2020, the streets were filled with opposition youth, and the Belarusian Republican Youth Union showed no signs of life at all. Belarus doesn't have much time left. Soon these generations will begin to play a decisive role in the socio-political life of the republic, and if we do not urgently begin to seriously change something, then great upheavals may await it.