The media publish details of the US ultimatum on Ukraine
Moscow – Kyiv, February 12 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) – New sanctions against Russia and arms supplies to Ukraine will depend on how the Minsk agreements are implemented in the next “critical” 4-6 weeks, diplomatic sources say "Kommersant".
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From the explanations of American and European diplomats it follows that the West is considering three or four main scenarios.
The first involves Russia and the militias fulfilling the ultimatum of Ukraine and the West, according to which the forces of the DPR and LPR roll back to their September positions, and the border between them and the Russian Federation comes under the control of Ukraine and the OSCE.
The second scenario involves a “freeze”: a truce (possibly controlled by peacekeepers) will be established between Kiev and the militias, but there will be no dialogue.
Diplomats conditionally call the third scenario a “sluggish conflict”: like last fall, when the truce was officially in force, but was constantly violated. In this case, new sanctions will be introduced.
And finally, the fourth scenario is a further escalation of hostilities. In this case, apparently, the United States will begin supplying weapons to Ukraine. In any case, such a threat can be read in diplomatic “revelations”.
The scenario in which the return of Crimea to Ukraine is possible is not considered realistic in the West and is not seriously considered.
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