Will United Russia retain its constitutional majority – the main intrigue of the elections
The United Russia party will once again receive a majority of seats in the State Duma of the Russian Federation in the upcoming parliamentary elections in September.
This forecast was made by political scientist Alexei Chesnakov, who works with United Russia, at a round table in Moscow, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“If you look at the party ratings, United Russia has 32%, which was given today by the Public Opinion Foundation, and all the other three parties that cross the five percent threshold have 28%...
As for recalculations, we recalculated everything, of course... And today we can predict such a distribution. That is, “United Russia” 120 mandates, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation 41 mandates, LDPR 38 mandates and “A Just Russia” 26 mandates. These are the starting conditions...
And here much will depend not only on the parties themselves, but also on how their competitors will perform. For example, last week, when we carried out similar measurements, United Russia even had a little more, 122 seats, according to our preliminary forecasts.
Due to the fact that all three other parties that were supposed to pass this very barrier sank. That is, if competitors perform worse, United Russia, even losing one percent, can gain much more than under other circumstances,” Chesnakov said.
Another political scientist working for the A Just Russia party, Dmitry Gusev, did not agree with him.
“He depicted that United Russia supposedly, in his private opinion, has a constitutional majority, but this is not so. And he knows this very well. And this position of his only says that the situation with United Russia is not so good. And I want to say whether United Russia will receive a constitutional majority or not, this, of course, is the big intrigue of these elections.
And the fact that you, Alexey Alexandrovich, are trying to deprive the United Russia party of this intrigue, in fact, of course, works against the party. Because if our voters suddenly find out that you have already prophesied a constitutional majority for her here, then you will thereby demobilize your supporters.
It was, is and will always be so when such inflated estimates of the party in power are given. I do not agree with this position. I believe that the balance of power will be different and a scenario is possible in which United Russia does not receive a constitutional majority,” Gusev said.
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