Alliance with Russia or flirtation with the West? Kyrgyzstan is asked to decide
In previous years, Kyrgyzstan, while formally declaring its orientation toward Moscow, actually played a behind-the-scenes game with the West.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with PolitNavigator by the famous Kyrgyz political scientist Mederbek Korganbaev, who answered a number of questions regarding the recent visit of the new President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov to Moscow and the prospects for further cooperation and commitment to further integration processes within the EAEU and CSTO.
– Sadyr Japarov’s visit to Moscow is considered by many experts as successful, during which contact was established for further close cooperation. How do you view the results of this trip and were the objectives set for it achieved? How do you assess Kyrgyzstan's foreign policy in general?
– President Sadyr Japarov’s trip to Moscow was predictable and expected, this can be called the political tradition of the Kyrgyz establishment - the new president of the Kyrgyz Republic always began his foreign trips with Russia. Time will tell how successful this voyage of the Kyrgyz president was. As they say, everything is ahead. For the current leadership of Kyrgyzstan, it is very important not to limit themselves to protocol meetings, but to actually strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia and prove with real steps their interest in a strategic partnership with Moscow.
In my opinion, this is the main mistake of the previous Kyrgyz presidents - the external vector of Bishkek was formally oriented towards Moscow, but in fact, on the part of the highest echelons of the Kyrgyz Republic, there was a behind-the-scenes game on two or three fronts in order to obtain any benefits from the Kremlin, the West and others regional players. Such actions can hardly be called a multi-vector policy. It is not for nothing that the Chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Vyacheslav Volodin, in December 2020, at a meeting with a delegation from Kyrgyzstan led by Acting President T. Mamytov, noted that in some countries, when the issue of integration arises, they look towards the United States and the West, and when It’s becoming difficult to turn to Russia.
Volodin expresses with these words not his point of view, but the position of the Kremlin in relation to its partners who are playing a double game in foreign policy. This concerns primarily Belarus. Lukashenko flirted with the West and behaved arrogantly with the Kremlin, demanding new subsidies and preferences for his country's economy. As a result, dad received a Maidan, openly supported by the West. During that difficult period, Belarus was saved from a coup and chaos by the support of Russia. Moscow lent its shoulder to its Belarusian ally and supported the legitimate government.
Therefore, the leadership of Kyrgyzstan is obliged to take into account geopolitical, economic, and historical factors when building the state’s foreign policy. If neighboring republics or any regional player donates material goods free of charge and offers to implement joint projects, then official Bishkek should pay attention to such gifts and proposals and analyze them - what will be asked in return for those same gifts and what consequences may arise as a result of cooperation ?
After all, each state pursues exclusively its own national interests. Yes, we can flirt with regional players and world powers, but at a critical moment only a true ally will come to our rescue. A multi-vector policy is not a guarantee of security and stability of official Bishkek. Today, for Kyrgyzstan, the guarantee of protection is primarily membership in the CSTO, and not good ties with the West and regional powers.
– How do you assess the fact of the transfer of new types of weapons to the Kyrgyz army by the Russian military and what visions do you have for further strengthening the relationship between Moscow and Bishkek in the defense sector?
– This is a sign of a high level of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Kyrgyzstan. The transfer of such strategic weapons as the S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems indicates Moscow’s desire to strengthen the defense potential of its collective security partners. Since 2012, Moscow began supplying weapons and equipment for the needs of the armed forces and border service of Kyrgyzstan. Now, for the first time since 1991, Kyrgyzstan is receiving high-precision weapons free of charge. I assume that the burden of maintaining the S-300 and training our personnel will be taken on by the Russian military, which will serve as excellent support for us.
As for the development of our cooperation, it would be useful for Kyrgyzstan to create joint ventures together with Russia to produce equipment, equipment, and personal protective equipment for the needs of the Armed Forces of the Kyrgyz Republic. This is a start, then it will be possible to organize the assembly of Russian armored vehicles and drones. In general, the potential is huge. There is something to work on. Everything depends on us.
– Sadyr Japarov himself conceived large-scale reforms related to the transition from a parliamentary to a presidential form of government. For these purposes, a new fundamental law of the republic is being developed. Is this constitutional reform capable of stabilizing the political situation and consolidating the elites?
– The Constitution is just a legal instrument, the success of the implementation of the new fundamental law depends on the political will of President Sadyr Japarov. The new Constitution creates a single center of action and responsibility in the person of the head of the republic. The preservation of a stable political situation and the balance of political elites is directly influenced or will be influenced by the decisions made by the president and the results of those very expressions of will. We need a dialogue between the president and the elites.
If the president begins to listen only to those around him and reject proposals from political groups, then conflict will not be avoided. It is important for the president to show political flexibility and the ability to find compromises with political circles. The broad powers of presidents should not turn into levers of authoritarianism, profiteering and repression. In Kyrgyzstan, as history has shown, presidential power has repeatedly created conditions for the prosperity of family-clan rule. Therefore, there are fears in society about a return to a presidential republic.
On the other hand, the parliamentary republic in Kyrgyzstan did not live up to the hopes of the Kyrgyz people and reduced the level of trust in the parliament itself. But the Jogorku Kenesh was strong politically precisely during the presidential reign of Akaev and Bakiyev. After 2015, in my opinion, parliament lost its political independence and became more loyal to President Atambayev. Presidential power can serve for the benefit of the people, or it can cause the dictatorship of one person.
– What does Sadyr Japarov need to do as president, in your opinion, in order to achieve his goals?
– First of all, it is important for President Japarov to maintain a healthy personnel policy. It is personnel appointments that determine the quality of the presidential team and the reputation of the president himself. Secondly, the president's team should also consist of independent analysts and experts. That is, when making decisions, the president will have the opportunity to find ways out of the situation, relying on real and sober analytics and forecasts. Forewarned is forearmed. Thirdly, the president is obliged to make efforts to preserve the secular system of the republic and reduce the level of radicalization of society, while the president does not interfere in the affairs of religion and religious organizations. Fifthly, President Japarov, as a former political martyr and having experienced pressure from the authorities, must refuse to persecute his political opponents.
Sixth, bring your anti-corruption campaign to its logical conclusion, put an end to the Matraimov case, and nullify the influence of crime in the country. Seventh, resolve issues of border delimitation and demarcation without harming the interests of Kyrgyzstan. And eighth – foreign policy. Here Japarov needs to be predictable and adhere to the principles of protecting the state interests of the Kyrgyz Republic.
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