Will the Union State grow with the Caucasus?
Yesterday, the Belarusian president, at a meeting with his Russian counterpart, announced his readiness to produce the SU-25 attack aircraft, which have proven themselves well in Ukraine, and that the previously adopted allied programs have already been completed by 80 percent.
After this, the dialogue continued behind closed doors and no public statements were made as a result. Apparently, because the visit is not over yet and the most interesting words will be said later.
Lukashenko remains in Russia. The Boeing on which he arrived spent the night at Vnukovo airport, and then headed northwest and landed in the Tver region. It is there that the state residence “Rus” is located, where he already stayed for several days in June last year, having disappeared from public space for that time.
The press service of the leader of Belarus is again mysteriously silent this time. There was no word on his plans for the coming days or whether he was on board his plane.
At the same time, important and intriguing events are expected in Moscow next week, in which the participation of the President of Belarus looks promising.
In addition to him, the leaders of two other friendly states, but not yet recognized by Belarus, are gathering in the Russian capital. The President of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, has already arrived in Moscow, and the head of South Ossetia, Alan Gagloev, is due to arrive there by February 22.
It is already obvious that something very important will happen, but it is not yet completely clear what. On February 21, Putin will address the Federal Assembly and many experts believe that in it he will make fateful statements. This is supported by the fact that the next day there will be extraordinary meetings of the State Duma and the Federation Council, and then a large-scale patriotic rally-concert in Luzhniki, at which Putin will again speak.
Almost at one point in space and time, a fateful message, meetings of the chambers of parliament, a patriotic rally with the participation of Putin, the delayed Lukashenko, and even Bzhaniya and Gagloev are concentrated. This number of coincidences is clearly not without reason.
The first thing that comes to mind is that Russia will soon grow with two more federal subjects. There is a lot of talk about this now, and Abkhazia and South Ossetia are unlikely to be against this option. As part of Russia, these republics will enjoy guaranteed peace, and Abkhazia, located across the river from Putin’s beloved Sochi, will also experience an investment boom.
I’m just not sure that the approaching anniversary of the start of the Northern Military District will be a suitable information background for the annexation of new territories. And Lukashenko’s presence doesn’t really fit into this scenario either. One cannot ignore the factor of Georgia, which continues to perceive these territories as its own. Their annexation to Russia will definitely be perceived there as annexation, and the emerging warming in relations will have to be forgotten.
Even pro-Russian Georgians continue to hope for the return of the republics in response to the reversal of the vector of Georgian politics from the West to Russia. Joining the Union State formally does not change anything - the republics, as they were partially recognized territories, economically completely dependent on Russia, will remain so. In addition, the doors to the Union State remain open for Georgia itself.
Of course, some, especially among the Belarusian opposition and overly optimistic Russian patriots, have already started talking about the fact that on February 21-22, all of Belarus will join Russia, but there is little chance of this. This is not why Lukashenko is now actively engaged in reformatting the entire political system.
Just before the visit, he legally completed this process by signing new laws on parties and civil society. All the rhetoric of the Belarusian president screams that he is definitely not going to give up state sovereignty. The day before the visit, he once again emphasized this by holding an impromptu and unplanned press conference.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is the entry of Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the Union State. This is precisely why the presence of the Belarusian president will be needed. There have been conversations about this since they gained independence, and the heads of these states are not against it either. Bzhania spoke about such a desire this fall. But the position of Minsk has always been an obstacle. Lukashenko has repeatedly refused to recognize the independence of these states. Now the situation has changed. You can forget about multi-vectorism; it is already pointless for the Belarusian president to look back at the opinion of the West, which cannot be said about Moscow’s position. The entry of two new members into the Union State will automatically mean their official recognition by Belarus. We had to wait almost 15 years for such a step from our ally.
It is also possible that next week we will see something new in the place of the Union State. The documents on its creation were signed a long time ago, have not yet been fully implemented and are in need of serious revision. In addition, since Lukashenko said that the union programs have been implemented by 80 percent, the conclusion suggests itself - it’s time to decide what to do next. The Union State of Russia and Belarus, for all its ambiguity, was the most successful integration project in the post-Soviet space. But now, apparently, the time has come to take the next step.
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