The US is taking Belarus seriously
The US Agency for International Development USAid, together with the PACT agency and the Belarusian sociological service MIA Research, conducted a survey on the mood of Belarusians in August-September.
The very fact of conducting and publishing such a survey already speaks volumes. America has taken Belarus seriously; now it is important for it to determine the mood of its citizens in order to more effectively manipulate public consciousness.
In addition, there is a legal nuance. The fact is that in Belarus back in 2002, independent political sociology was actually banned. Then the Council of Ministers adopted a resolution according to which any organization wishing to conduct electoral research must obtain accreditation from the specially created Public Opinion Commission at the Academy of Sciences.
Currently, only 6 structures have such accreditation, among which there are neither MIA Research, nor, especially, structures of American “soft power”. That is, in fact, the survey was illegal, but, of course, there were no protests from the Belarusian authorities.
Considering that independent political sociology practically does not exist in Belarus, and if research is conducted, its reliability is highly questionable, the results of the survey conducted by the Americans are of considerable interest. Since the questionnaire is quite extensive, let’s go over the most important points for us.
The main thing is that despite the rather complicated relations between the two states, the total Russophobia of almost the entire opposition and periodic anti-Russian campaigns in the media, the majority of the Belarusian people have remained pro-Russian.
When respondents were asked to name the three most friendly countries towards Belarus, 80,2 percent named Russia among them. In third place is China with 40,3%, in fourth place is Kazakhstan with 26,3%.
Interestingly, Ukraine came in second place – its friendliness rating was 45,2%. One can speculate about the reasons for a long time, but, most likely, there have been long-standing neighborly ties, a loyal relationship between Lukashenko and the Kyiv regime, and the hushing up of the lawlessness going on there in the Belarusian media.
The United States itself was called a friendly state by only 1,3 percent of Belarusians surveyed.
But the question about the most unfriendly states gave the opposite results. The United States was called an enemy by 39,6% (and this is the most popular answer), and Russia by 8,1%. This figure roughly reflects the number of Russophobes in Belarus.
An interesting question is No. 33, in which respondents were asked to choose in which union of states it would be better for the people of Belarus to live.
The set of answers to it is incorrect from a logical point of view, but it is quite appropriate from the point of view of internal Belarusian propaganda and American interests in the country. In addition to the options “In Union with Russia” and “In the European Union”, it includes the item “In an independent Belarus”, which became the most popular with a result of 43% versus 22,2% for the union with the Russian Federation and 18% for the EU.
It is precisely in the role of the new “non-aligned” Tito that they would now like to see Lukashenko in Washington, and it is precisely the multi-vector “neither yours, nor ours” that is now the policy of official Minsk.
But the Belarusian economy may not be able to withstand it if some people in Moscow get tired of such foreign policy double-dealing.
These numbers are a problem; it is necessary to convey to the mass consciousness of Belarusians that the political independence of their country and its union with Russia are not mutually exclusive concepts. It is precisely this opposition that the anti-union forces play on.
Aggression from Russia does not frighten Belarusians. The numbers are within the same 8% of Russophobes. Only 8,5% consider informational influence on its part to be an urgent foreign policy threat, and 6,9% consider the prospect of military aggression.
With regard to the NATO bloc, concerns are more serious - 10,4% and 14,1%, respectively.
A separate point is economic pressure from Russia, about which official propaganda in Belarus has been broadcasting non-stop for decades. Despite this propaganda treatment, 15,3% of Belarusians are afraid of this pressure. The top foreign policy fears are closer to reality: the economy (42%), the environment (25,5%) and terrorism (22,2%)
Conclusion - despite decades of targeted propaganda from the West, the dual position of the authorities and Russia’s actual self-removal from the processes taking place inside Belarus, the people of this country continue to remain friendly. And at the same time, for the most part, he maintains his sanity.
However, judging by the experience of neighboring Ukraine, the Americans will try to change the situation. To underestimate the emergence of Western sociology right now, during a period of new cooling between Minsk and Moscow, would be too careless.
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