"Stalingulag": the end of the intrigue?

There are quite a few anonymous channels in the Russian telegram community, the authors of which prefer to remain in the shadows. But readers are always interested in who is really behind the published insiders, bold statements and criticism of the authorities. Therefore, attempts to de-anonymize popular channels such as Nezygar, Stalingulag and others occupy a significant part of the discussions going on around Telegram.

It would seem that Alexander Gorbunov’s kind of coming out should have once and for all cleared up all questions about the authorship of the Stalingulag accounts. But is it really that simple?

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We watched the BBC interview several times, and each time it seemed more and more strange and to some extent false. We asked experts to analyze the broadcast of Sani from Dagestan and study the history of Stalingulag publications on Twitter, Telegram and Instagram. The specialists had tools for content analysis, psychological and linguistic examination at their disposal. And here are the results we got.

There are a lot of lies around the author and his accounts. Alexander's latest statements are in many respects at odds with his earlier messages on social networks. Experts found that he contradicted himself when he said that:

– I’ve never been abroad. But at the same time he posted photos from London.

– my wife does not have accounts on social networks. At the same time, according to him, his wife, “far from social networks,” runs a blog @ego_zhe on Instagram. Its content also does not highlight love for the Fatherland.

– spends “20 minutes a day” on maintaining accounts, which sounds absolutely incredible. Considering the physical condition of the author, who can hardly move his hands, this time is clearly not enough to simply type the texts of the posts. In addition, it is impossible to gain such a number of subscribers without spending time and effort on SMM.

– likes to sleep until 12 o’clock, although he publishes most of his posts at 8-10 am. This behavior is atypical for “independent” authors, since the time they are online has different dynamics of activity peaks.

Stalingulag activity schedule by time of day
(from January to May 2019)

– is in dire need of money, since he spends about 400 thousand rubles a month on his maintenance. But at the same time he refuses to make money from advertising on social networks. Moreover, each publication could bring him about 150 thousand.

In addition, experts came to the conclusion that Stalingulag accounts are maintained by several authors. This is indicated by differences in style in his publications, differences in common errors and the use of slang. For example, in Telegram and Twitter there is no period in the last sentence of the vast majority of posts. Moreover, on Instagram there is almost always a period at the end. And on the page of Gorbunov’s wife, punctuation without periods at the end is observed.

Twitter message without a period at the end

Instagram message with a period at the end

In addition, the author never uses the pronoun “I” when writing about his country and its inhabitants. In his publications the expressions “among the Russians”, “in Russia”, “about the Russians” are often found. In this case, the pronouns “us” and “you” are used, but “me” is not found anywhere. Although in one of the materials about Putin on the page of Stalingulag’s wife, the opinion was expressed that a person who depersonalizes himself in his statements, i.e. does not use “I”, does not want to take responsibility for what is said or done.

The psychological portrait of the Stalingulag Twitter account as of May 2019 coincides only 60% with the psychological portrait of Alexander Gorbunov. Values, motivation, type of psychological defense, social role and some other parameters diverge.

Content analysis showed that since the beginning of 2016, there has been a change in the style of presenting information: a decrease in the semantic load of the text, the addition of hashtags, an increase in the amount of profanity, a decrease in literacy, and addressing others from “we.” There is a high probability that from that time on, SMM managers were hired to manage accounts.

In addition, the position of Stalingulag regarding Ukraine became a separate marker for experts. Or rather, a sharp change in attitude towards this issue to the diametrically opposite one. In 2014, he supported the return of Crimea, called Ukrainians nothing more than “crests,” and criticized the events after the Maidan.

But since 2016-2017, Russia suddenly began to fight in Ukraine, Crimea was no longer needed by the Russian people, and the Ukrainian regime, figuratively speaking, turned into a model of democracy. The same applies to the attitude towards representatives of that part of the Russian opposition, which has long been accused of having ties with the West. During this period, the negativity towards them disappeared, while criticism of the authorities began to more resemble “swearing for the sake of swearing.”

Publication dated March 1, 2014

Publication dated January 12, 2017

In an interview, Alexander responded to comments about this evasively, with clearly memorized phrases, which sounded absolutely unconvincing.

Experts also found that the number of bots among Stalingulag subscribers is off the charts. This means that Alexander Gorbunov used cheating mechanisms to develop his account. Typically, hiring bots is not that expensive. But on the scale of the number of subscribers that the “gulag” has on Twitter and Telegram, this is a lot of money. Plus, attracting SMM managers is definitely an expensive pleasure. It is unclear why a blogger should seriously invest in social networks if they do not bring him income.

Examples of bots that retweet “Stalingulag”

So, the analysis of the situation around Stalingulag brought us the following results:

1.False. There are a lot of lies around Alexander Gorbunov and his accounts.

2. Presence of co-authors who are hidden.

3. A sharp change in rhetoric in relation to the Russian non-systemic opposition and the events in Ukraine.

4.Use of botnets to gain subscribers.

Based on the results of the research, experts came to the conclusion that Alexander Gorbunov could act as a forced official of Stalingulag. His accounts are maintained jointly with other people and with the support of SMM managers. Apparently, Sanya’s curator from Dagestan appeared around 2016. But who is he? Unfortunately, the examination is not able to answer this question. So let's try to think logically.

The openly pro-Ukrainian rhetoric of “Stalingulag” clearly indicates that its curator is in the West or in Ukraine. The western trail follows Gorbunov’s wife, who lived and studied in Canada for a long time. The statement of former SBU employee Vasily Prozorov speaks in favor of the Ukrainian “master,” which we cannot ignore, taking into account the position and knowledge of this person. In addition, in January 2019, Stalingulag began openly collaborating with Ukrainian propaganda media and started a blog on the Observer resource. In principle, both options do not contradict each other, given the complete dependence of the neighboring country on external control.

Gorbunov is forced to lead a public life not on his own initiative. He is forced to do this by the owners of Stalingulag, who use him for their own political purposes. It is clear that they are not engaged in charity. Ukraine, with the support of Western intelligence services, is unprincipled and cynically using a person with disabilities and a damaged psyche. For them, Alexander is simply a godsend in the information and psychological war against Russia and Putin. According to the curators, he should appear as an “oppressed beacon of freedom”, a “fighter against the bloody regime”, from whom at any moment a convenient “sacred victim” can be made. Technology that has been tested for decades.

Does Sanya from Dagestan understand the situation he finds himself in? He probably understands, but now he has become a hostage to his handlers. He should try to free himself from this oppression, otherwise it will lead to sad consequences.