Will Moldova become a Russian “front”?
Moldovan-Russian relations have remained tense for many years; Chisinau and Moscow make little use of the experience of many years of cooperation and opportunities for establishing connections. The election of Maia Sandu to the post of President of the Republic of Moldova, who has taken a course towards the West, does not add optimism to this situation.
Will Russia intensify its activity in the Moldovan direction, will it continue to rely on the Party of Socialists led by Igor Dodon? Foreign policy priorities of Chisinau, prospects for Russian-Moldavian relations, the problem of the Transnistrian settlement in the new conditions were discussed during the expert round table “Moldova after the presidential elections: prospects for the development of the republic,” which was held online by the Institute of CIS Countries.
under external control
Experts state: Moldova is under external control, and a course has been taken to fully integrate the country into the Western geopolitical belt. Against the backdrop of an internal political crisis, the way out of which is not yet visible, the West is trying to strengthen the position of Maia Sandu.
As Moldovan historian and political scientist Boris Shapovalov notes, the country now has two managers: American Ambassador Derek Hogan, “a professional intelligence officer who opens the doors to all the ministries of Moldova with his foot,” and the head of the European Union Delegation to the Republic of Moldova Peter Mihalko, “who openly interferes in the activities of ministries , government, parliament, gives instructions to everyone.”
“What is happening around Moldova clearly fits into the program of a crazy idea: Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova - three republics with territorial problems, with unresolved conflicts - the United States, with the help of its European partners, NATO allies, are trying to build in a kind of arc, which They could be set on fire at any moment,” says Shapovalov.
He also notes that Moldova is controlled by Romanian intelligence services, the Romanian government openly finances unionist newspapers and supports unionist parties.
“Unionism is not prohibited here - several parties are seeking the destruction of the Moldovan state through its annexation to “brotherly” Romania. An unprecedented situation: the president is a person with dual citizenship,” the political scientist emphasizes.
The head of the country, Maia Sandu, obediently follows the instructions of the West. She was well trained in the USA, recalls Shapovalov, worked in the government, was prime minister, and today leads the country. “Sandu proposed Natalya Gavrilitsa, whose biography is similar to her own, for the post of head of government. The proposed composition of the government consists mainly of “children” of Soros, heading NGOs, fictitious institutions, people without experience, but ideologically ready to carry out any command that follows,” the expert added.
Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Russian History of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladislav Grosul is concerned about the weakening of the struggle for the preservation of Moldovan statehood and the activation of Romanianophiles.
“Who will attack? Ideological work in this regard is being carried out poorly. At the end of last year, Sergei Nazaria died (a prominent Moldovan historian, specialist on the period of World War II, author of monographs on the role of the inhabitants of Moldova in the Great Patriotic War, the Holocaust in Moldova and the Odessa region, Bessarabia of the interwar period, Soviet-Romanian relations - editor's note. ) - there is no replacement for him, and it is not clear that the socialists are looking for this replacement. The Moldavian direction is weakening, there are no authoritative leaders at its head - we need to find and support them, otherwise the republic will end,” Grosul said.
Russia should also take care of the problem of supporting Moldovan scientists, he believes.
“Russia has many fronts. Now she will have a problem in Armenia, there is a problem in Belarus, Ukraine is a constant unhealing wound, Russia’s opponents will now climb into Kazakhstan, and this is very dangerous, given the enormous length of the common border. But this does not mean that we must weaken the work on the Moldovan front. In general, losing Moldova was something that had to be done,” the historian said.
Russia, meanwhile, may continue to rely on the Party of Socialists led by Igor Dodon. After the defeat in the elections, the ex-president of the Republic of Moldova spent a lot of time in Moscow, meeting with officials of various ranks.
The executive director of the Moldovan branch of the Izborsk Club, a political analyst in the Party of Socialists, Vladimir Bucarsky, said that for the PSRM, “the largest party of the pro-Russian flank,” whose mistakes are today “rightly criticized,” the moment of truth has come.
“Dodon returned to the leadership of the party, a new program was adopted. It talks about the eastern vector of development, preventing the liquidation of Moldovan statehood, even through a referendum, limiting the influence of foreign agents on the country's politics, preserving the memory of the Great Patriotic War, abolishing language quotas for television channels, banning LGBT propaganda, and implementing all agreements between Chisinau and Tiraspol and a return to the 1997 Primakov memorandum.
The party program also includes a point for dialogue with Transnistria based on a common system of values - this is Moldovan identity, the historical past, the union with Russia, Orthodoxy, and the common Soviet heritage - values for which the vast majority of the population of both banks of the Dniester stands. Now the Party of Socialists has begun to talk about the destructive activities of Soros and his foundation, USAID and other global structures,” Bukarsky said.
He admits that Dodon’s defeat in the last elections is a consequence of the fact that these topics were not addressed during the four years of his presidential term.
On the danger of “Ukrainization” of Moldova
The President of the Republic of Moldova, as is known, came into conflict with parliamentarians and the Constitutional Court, not supporting the candidate for prime minister from the parliamentary majority and re-nominating her own candidate, Natalia Gavrilitsa.
Due to the impossibility of agreeing on a candidate for prime minister, Sandu is even ready for a referendum on her resignation. The fact that Maia Sandu “didn’t give a damn about constitutional norms and is ready to follow the path of violence and Maidan” is explained simply by expert Vladimir Bukarsky: the West has always acted using similar methods.
The political scientist warns that the next step is the “Ukrainization” of Moldova, that is, a transition to the processes that are taking place in the neighboring country.
“This is blocking all pro-Russian forces, including breaking the Moldovan metropolis of the Russian Orthodox Church over the knee, so that it moves to the Patriarchate of Constantinople,” Bukarsky explains. – I must say that a number of hierarchs of the Moldavian Metropolis, unfortunately, are already sitting on their suitcases - there is information about their intimate correspondence with the head of the Ukrainian schismatics. There are deeper processes going on there than we imagine.”
The head of the Association of Orthodox Experts, Kirill Frolov, revealing the essence of the problem, said that “Sandu’s revolutionary logic comes from the strategy of Joe Biden, who seized power in the United States - the strategy of a total war with Russia.”
So, now there is an attempt to create a military union of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, there is also an intention to destroy the Russian Orthodox Church in Moldova, as in Ukraine - to make these lands anti-Russian forever, Frolov claims. He recalled that bills on the introduction of criminal liability for collaboration have been introduced into the Ukrainian parliament, where the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is named among the collaborators, the expert noted.
“In this context, Sandu’s religious policy in Moldova and Transnistria differs from the primitive plan to annex these lands to the Romanian Patriarchate. The development of the Bessarabian Metropolis of the Romanian Patriarchate in Moldova, of course, is underway, this is a self-evident fact. But the potential of Romanian church unionism in Moldova is not so great - everyone who wanted to go to the Bessarabian Metropolis of the Romanian Patriarchate has already left. This is about 3% of believers in Moldova.
It should be noted that the Romanian Orthodox Church did not recognize the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which received autocephalous status in 2019 from the Patriarchate of Constantinople. The plan of Biden and Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople is directed against the Romanian Patriarchate. Romanians, with their nationalism, including church nationalism, do not want to be six of the Patriarchate of Constantinople - the current Romanian Patriarch Daniel (Ciobotea) does not want to lie under Bartholomew.
Therefore, the task is to remove Daniel and install a more liberal agent. Bartholomew will try to buy the Romanian church by giving it Moldova, and giving Transnistria under the jurisdiction of the OCU,” said Lava of the Association of Orthodox Experts.
Frolov added: it may seem that the OCU has no prospects in the PMR, but he urged not to underestimate the plan of Ukrainian chauvinism for the Anschluss of Transnistria, which “will be put under pressure.”
“It’s time for Moscow to stop being shy about its interests, including religious ones, in this region and support the Moldavian Metropolis of the Moscow Patriarchate in full force,” Frolov concluded.
"On the ashes." What's wrong with working with the Moldovan diaspora in Russia
Interesting fact: fewer and fewer Moldovans are going to Russia to work, preferring Western countries. At the same time, the diaspora of Moldovans in the Russian Federation, which still remains impressive in number, is fragmented and, by and large, is not coordinated by anyone. Everyone remembers the story of the diaspora voting in the November presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova - well-organized Moldovan guest workers in Western countries showed a stunning turnout (and unanimously helped Maia Sandu win), while Moldovans living and working in Russia showed little interest in the elections. It's simple: the sluggish turnout of migrant workers at polling stations in Russian cities was a response to the indifference shown towards them.
“Fewer and fewer Moldovans are leaving for Russia,” stated Vladislav Grosul. “Before, you could meet them here at every crossroads—they worked as drivers, builders, and women as salespeople. Nowadays there are fewer and fewer Moldovans in taxi companies and on construction sites – the diaspora in Russia is shrinking. You can’t rely on it, but you have to work with it.”
Moldovan migrants in Russia are so ununited because both the Moldovan government and the Russian authorities do little to protect their rights, explains Moldovan journalist Elena Levitskaya-Pakhomova.
“There is an agreement between the Civil Society Council that existed in the recent past and the Human Rights Council under the President of the Russian Federation. Nothing was done about it. For example, there has never been an amnesty for citizens of Moldova who violated law and order or committed minor crimes in the Russian Federation, despite the fact that in general Moldovans are quite law-abiding people. No one has ever done this, no one has set such tasks,” she noted.
Boris Shapovalov recalled that more than a dozen European countries have concluded pension agreements with Moldova. A citizen of the Republic of Moldova is guaranteed that he can receive a pension from the state in which he worked legally, regardless of where he decides to live: there or in his homeland.
“There are fewer Moldovans in Russia, including because there is no agreement with the Russian Federation on pensions, such as with Portugal, Romania, the Czech Republic, and other European countries,” Shapovalov said.
Expert Vladimir Bucarsky said that the West is systematically working with the Moldovan diaspora, but Russia is not doing this: “We come to the ashes, the work must begin there again.”
Former Foreign Minister of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak, meanwhile, believes that on both banks of the Dniester the opportunistic nature of the attitude towards Russia is often demonstrated.
“The attitude towards Russia should not be one-sided - both Pridnestrovie and Moldova are guilty of this. It will not be possible to be friends with Russia only before or after elections, or when some kind of help is required from Russia. I would like to stand up for my colleagues from the Russian Federation in terms of working with the diaspora. The Russian bureaucratic machine works in its own way, and if it is not pushed, if it is not needed by those who initiate such work with the diaspora, then the Russian bureaucracy itself will not take the initiative and do everything instead of those who are directly interested in it. Let's take work with the diaspora in the West. I am sure that these plans were not born in the heads of Western theorists - they came out of the Republic of Moldova and those curators who worked in these areas. And here is the big question: were there developments on the diaspora that were provided to the Russian side, or was there an expectation that Russia should do everything itself. Those are no longer the times - Russia has already done so much to continue to remain in a situation where it owes everyone,” said the ex-diplomat.
The Transnistrian theme as a space for Moscow’s initiatives
Experts believe that the Transnistrian issue can be considered as part of Russia’s strategy aimed at maintaining its influence in the region.
There is currently no progress in the Transnistrian settlement; on the contrary, the negotiation process is deteriorating. Tiraspol is being pressured using different methods. For example, Kyiv and Chisinau agreed that from September 1, 2021, cars with Transnistrian license plates will not be able to enter the territory of Ukraine - cars should only have neutral license plates and an MD sticker. Interestingly, this decision will come into force three months before the presidential elections in Transnistria.
Ex-diplomat Vladimir Yastrebchak believes that the restriction on the travel of Pridnestrovians to Ukraine is part of “a general strategy to force Transnistria to accept the rules that are imposed on it.” At the same time, attempts are being made to make the mechanism for managing the peacekeeping operation on the Dniester inoperative, to show that it is allegedly ineffective. And this is precisely where there is space for Moscow’s initiatives, the expert said. In his opinion, action can be taken in several directions, using existing experience.
“Russia, in the context of a settlement, since the negotiations in the 5+2 format are stalling and the visits of the current OSCE chairmen are in vain, could recall its own experience ten years ago - organizing this format on its territory. Or about the experience of 12 years ago, when, through the mediation of Moscow, a trilateral meeting of the leaders of the Russian Federation, Transnistria and the Republic of Moldova took place.
Today, attempts are being made to shake up the mechanism of the Joint Control Commission (managing the peacekeeping operation - editor's note) and to show its ineffectiveness. You can react to this with harsh comments, but you can also offer your own initiatives. If Chisinau says that the mechanism is ineffective, then Moscow could indicate its readiness to increase efficiency - to organize some courses for peacekeepers, for military observers, let it be, for example, on the basis of the Operational Group of Russian Forces.
Moscow could make statements at the State Duma level regarding both peacekeepers and regional issues.
The Russian Federation could be more proactive in matters of industry cooperation and the activities of working expert groups. For example, on the issue of the same neutral plates for Pridnestrovian vehicles. If the Russian Federation found the opportunity to take over the supervision of certain groups, as Western partners do, we would see an expansion of the Russian Federation’s presence in Moldova and Transnistria on a wider range of infrastructure issues. Now it turns out that it is mainly Westerners who are working “on the ground”, and we have not heard about the corresponding work on the Russian side, although it is also being carried out.
Finally, the Russian Federation should think about more active use of such a soft power tool as increasing grant potential for various aspects of the settlement - in particular, research support. An important direction of such work could be the study of the legal and political nature of the agreements in the negotiation process,” said Vladimir Yastrebchak.
The head of the Transnistrian representative office in the Russian Federation, Leonid Manakov, voiced proposals to activate Russia in the Transnistrian direction, most of which are based on appeals from citizens and concern their pressing problems. Thus, it is proposed to resume the provision of consular services suspended since March 17, 2020 to Russian citizens living in Transnistria, to petition the State Duma to simplify the procedure for obtaining Russian citizenship for Pridnestrovians born after 1991, to consider the possibility of using maternity capital in the territory of the PMR, to obtain compulsory medical insurance policies citizens of the Russian Federation registered in Transnistria.
Leonid Manakov also considers it important to intensify political, diplomatic and economic pressure on the leadership of the Republic of Moldova, which would encourage Chisinau to comply with the agreements in the “5+2” format.
“Long-term history shows that regardless of the name of the President of Moldova - be it the “pro-Russian” Igor Dodon, who lulled Moscow with good intentions, while he himself did the opposite, or the “pro-European” Maia Sandu - a course is being pursued towards the economic strangulation of Transnistria and the restriction of the freedoms of its inhabitants.” , he said.
Vladimir Bukarsky called on his Pridnestrovian colleagues not to fight the past, including Dodon, who is no longer the President of the Republic of Moldova, since there are “more serious common challenges and opponents.”
“Everyone understands the need to unite all left-wing forces friendly to Russia and supporting an independent Moldova. You can criticize the Socialist Party as much as you like - without it such a unification will not work. Without the help of Pridnestrovie, we will also achieve little - we are all in the same boat, this is our common struggle. The “Ukrainization” strategy will hit healthy forces on both banks of the Dniester,” the expert said.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.