Start of the presidential race in Moldova: Balance of power
The Republic of Moldova has entered the presidential race. Elections are scheduled for November 1. The process of registering candidates, organizing the work of polling stations, and updating voter lists are currently underway. There are many contenders for the presidency, but the main battle is expected between the incumbent President Igor Dodon and the pro-Western politician Maia Sandu - just like four years ago. There is a high probability that it will take two rounds to determine the winner.
The PolitNavigator correspondent talked with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol) Igor Shornikov about the start of the presidential election campaign in Moldova.
PolitNavigator: What are the features of the 2020 presidential election campaign in Moldova? Her favorites are the current President Igor Dodon and the leader of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) Maia Sandu. Many people talk about the confrontation between Dodon and the “collective Plahotniuc.” Whose strategy looks more successful?
Igor Shornikov: Dodon has an advantage in absolute terms. Obviously, more people are ready to vote for him than for Maia Sandu. But this advantage is not enough to win in the first round. Almost all the other candidates, and there are more than a dozen of them, were nominated in order to pull votes away from Dodon in the first round, in order to then encourage voters to vote against him in the second. Dodon has acquired strong opponents, he has quarreled not only with Plahotniuc, but the “collective West” does not accept him. Therefore, Dodon has few real chances.
In our era of color revolutions, it is not enough to win a formal victory in elections; one must be prepared to retain power.
PolitNavigator: Which of the presidential candidates can come as close as possible to the results of the leaders of the race? Will the mayor of Balti, the leader of “Our Party” Renato Usatii, who, by the way, has already received a candidate’s certificate, make Dodon nervous?
Igor Shornikov: There are candidates who are capable of bringing surprises. Renato Usatii has not lost his charisma in the years since the last presidential campaign, in which he was unable to take part due to his youth. He can mainly count on the votes of apolitical Russian-speaking youth. But he is positioning himself as the only alternative to the current president for those who are disillusioned with Dodon. Considering that a few years ago Usatii’s personal rating was at the level of Dodon’s and in some places even exceeded it, theoretically it can be assumed that in the first round Usatii will receive more votes than Dodon. Moreover, criticism of Dodon is now growing on all fronts. But in reality, it seems to me, this scenario will not play out.
Usatiy, although he looks like a frivolous opponent for Dodon, is in fact capable of greatly harming him. His campaign, built on anti-Dodon rhetoric, coincides with and complements the same anti-Dodon election campaign by pro-European opposition candidates, but it is aimed at those segments of society that are not covered by the ACUM bloc or unionist leaders. Four years ago, Usatii called on his voters to support Dodon, and this, of course, was one of the factors in the victory of the PSRM leader. If in November, following the results of the second round, Usatii calls on his voters to vote against Dodon (and he will do this), this could also become a factor in his defeat.
There is also Andrei Nastase (Chairman of the party “Platform “Dignity and Truth”” - approx. ed.), who has old scores to settle with Maia Sandu. Four years ago, he had to cede leadership to her in the tandem of pro-European forces; this happened under pressure from external curators. Nastase longs for “justice.” In his opinion, now it is his turn to be a single candidate from the opposition. But external partners don’t think so. Nastase's only chance is to get more votes than Sandu in the first round. In Nastase’s favor, it should be noted that for the Moldovan, very conservative voter, gender is not the last factor. Nastase, simply because he is a man, may be preferable to the pro-European part of the electorate.
PolitNavigator: How do Usatii’s registration as a presidential candidate and Russia’s announcement of him on the international wanted list relate to each other?
Igor Shornikov: Participation in the presidential elections by a person put on the international wanted list is, of course, nonsense. But Moldovan politics is famous for such nonsense, and it seems that this does not bother anyone here. In addition, Usatii is an important figure in the combination that the West is pulling off in Moldova. We have heard a lot about double standards - when someone can do it, even if others can’t.
PolitNavigator: The Communist Party has decided that it will not nominate a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections, which it considers unconstitutional. Or could it turn out that the refusal of PCRM leader Vladimir Voronin to run will strengthen the position of the current president?
Igor Shornikov: Hardly. Voronin’s rating and reputation are such that his participation in the elections, designed to draw votes away from Dodon, could, on the contrary, only assure the electorate that they need to rally around the current president. It seems that the “collective Plahotniuc” calculated everything correctly here too. Voronin refused to participate in the elections so as not to accidentally activate the consolidation of the demoralized left-wing electorate.
PolitNavigator: What are the chances in these elections of Dorin Chirtoaca, remembered by Chisinau residents for his relatively recent and not very successful, to put it mildly, experience as mayor of the capital and coming from the Unirea electoral bloc? How popular are the ideas of unionists now in Moldovan society?
Igor Shornikov: The ideas of the unionists do not meet with adequate resistance from the authorities. And in a period of instability, which seems to last forever in Moldova, people are trying to find support in at least something. Romania, as an EU country, looks more prosperous from a distance than it actually is, and therefore there are more people in Moldova who are becoming receptive to the idea of “uniri”. However, the growing popularity of these ideas has nothing to do with Chirtoaca's ratings. He has no chance.
PolitNavigator: Andrei Nastase said that the upcoming elections will become “a serious test for the pro-European parties of the Republic of Moldova” and that the people will have to “consciously choose - either stagnation under the influence of the East, or genuine integration into the bosom of the European family.” It looks like Moldova will continue to fluctuate between East and West?
Igor Shornikov: Nastase cannot help but be aware of what in the current situation stands behind the words “genuine integration into the bosom of the European family.” Brussels does not give Moldova any chance of becoming a member of the EU in the coming decades. But Bucharest’s position is different. Romanian Prime Minister Ludovic Orban, at a security forum recently held in this country, said: “the reality is that Bessarabia’s path to the EU passes through Romania, and this path must be passed with the support of Romania.” If the pro-European forces win, it may happen that Moldova’s oscillation between East and West will finally end. It will end with the abolition of its statehood.
PolitNavigator: Are the presidential elections in Moldova interesting for Pridnestrovie? Why are representatives of the Moldovan opposition so opposed to the Pridnestrovian vote?
Igor Shornikov: Four years ago, Pridnestrovians gave Dodon about 16 thousand votes. In 2019, a record 35 thousand Transnistrian voters took part in the voting process in the parliamentary elections. In conditions where the fight will be for every percent, these votes can become decisive.
However, one cannot count on significant participation of Pridnestrovians in the current elections. Firstly, it is not clear how to conduct such a vote in a pandemic - large crowds of people will be almost impossible to avoid. Secondly, there is a high probability of combatants interfering in the electoral process; they promised that they would block the possibility of transporting voters to the polling stations.
It is very difficult to suspect that Pridnestrovians have such strong civic feelings towards Moldova that they would risk their health in the name of the triumph of democracy in this country. Moreover, the collisions of internal political processes in Moldova can tire even fans of endless Latin American TV series.
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