Embarrassment is inappropriate: How Russia can catch up with the champions in “soft power”

Russia has entered the authoritative ranking of the world's leading countries in terms of the level of use of soft power, which implies cultural and diplomatic influence. The Russian Federation has advantages that allow it to compete with the West in the post-Soviet space, but it does not fully use its existing potential. Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol), Igor Shornikov, answered PolitNavigator’s questions regarding the practice of Russian soft power, in particular in Moldova and Transnistria. The expert explains how effectively the Russian Federation opposes the West, including in this territory, what there are shortcomings and why it is important for Moscow right now to address the problems of foreign Russians.

PolitNavigator: In 2020, Russia entered the top 10 of the first global ranking of countries in terms of soft power, according to a study by the consulting company Brand Finance. The first place in the ranking is occupied by the USA. What is needed in this case to play on equal terms with the champion? How is this rivalry going on the fields of the CIS countries and, in particular, Moldova?

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Igor Shornikov: American soft power probably cannot be called too noticeable in the CIS. It seems that the United States itself prefers not to be deliberately active here. Still, the image of the United States in the post-Soviet space does not have the most positive background, dating back to Soviet times. Therefore, Americans do not advertise themselves much and, probably, they are doing the right thing. Judging by Moldova and Transnistria, the United States prefers to implement its own policies through the soft power of third countries and international organizations - projects are implemented with EU funds, Sweden is very active in Transnistria, there is support from the Czech Republic and Poland, most projects are implemented by UNDP, and the Eastern Fund also operates Europe in RM. The United States itself, against the general background of Western activity, can be said to be lost. To make matters worse, American Culture Days turning into hamburger eating days could have the opposite effect.

However, it is difficult for Russia to win this competition. She has to face a whole team of “champions” alone. Only the amount of financial resources spent on soft power by the collective West and Russia differs by orders of magnitude. Therefore, in strategic terms, we are seeing a slow decline in Russian influence. On the other hand, the historical memory of our common past, of the role that Russia played in the development of our region over the centuries, is still alive. That is why the West has not been able to discredit the authority of Russia for several decades. Here we must pay tribute to the factor of the Russian language, which, through the media and the Internet, remains the main means of access for the population to world culture. Another significant factor is the personality of Vladimir Putin; for decades he has remained the most popular politician in both Transnistria and Moldova.

In general, despite the lack of funds and limited methods, Russia stands up to the West with dignity. Russian cinema cannot compete with Hollywood, but it does not lose its audience. Russian pop culture is not inferior to Western pop culture in terms of preferences both among young people and among middle-aged and older people. Russian TV channels are still unrivaled in both Transnistria and Moldova.

That is why, as part of the global information war against Russia, an attempt was made in Moldova to isolate the population from the Russian media space. In the digital age this is almost impossible. In addition, if Russian media content is removed, then it must be replaced with an alternative one of equal quality, and, again, in Russian - this is still hardly possible in Moldova.

PolitNavigator: Ukraine, Moldova’s neighbor, has turned from a fraternal country into an anti-Russian state and a NATO springboard. How did this happen, is this possible in the Republic of Moldova?

Igor Shornikov: Much has already been said about how this became possible. The West has worked with youth for decades and has been able to take power with the help of this generation.

In my opinion, Ukraine is not yet lost to Russia. Almost the entire population of Ukraine understands the Russian language and does not want hostility between the two states. The current government, pursuing an anti-Russian course, does not enjoy the trust of the people. Almost seven years is enough time to carry out economic reforms, eradicate corruption, lay the foundations of the rule of law, etc. But these pro-European promises remained promises.

A chance to restore ties could be the modernization and economic development of Russia itself, which, despite everything, is taking place. Then Ukraine will have more incentives to get involved in the growth process, and Russia will have more opportunities to contribute to this.

Is it possible for Moldova to transform into an anti-Russian state according to the Ukrainian scenario? Unfortunately, it is not only possible, but such scenarios are ready for implementation. The peculiarity is that with its neutrality, Moldova will also lose its statehood. A generation of Moldovans has already grown up who have been deprived of their national roots and consider themselves Romanians. Unionist organizations are multiplying in both Moldova and Romania. The military infrastructure of NATO and the United States is increasingly developing the spaces of these two countries. Judging by opinion polls, Moldovan citizens no longer see much sense in the existence of their own statehood and have a fairly neutral attitude towards NATO. The new president of Moldova is a citizen of Romania and a consistent advocate of Western policy.

In the near future, we risk witnessing major geopolitical changes in our region.

PolitNavigator: It is believed that soft power operates where people want to accept it. Do they want to accept Russia's soft power in Moldova?

Igor Shornikov: We have already said that the most popular politician in Moldova is Vladimir Putin, and Russian TV channels top all ratings. Yes, of course they do, if we are talking about the people and not the political class. Moreover, at least half of the country's residents would like Russia to pursue a more active policy in the region and increase its presence in all areas. However, over the course of many years, this part of the population, through skillful manipulations, has been pushed away from the process of government and marginalized. Russia should find opportunities to work with this part of the population not through the mediation of the Moldovan state or Moldovan political parties, but directly, through civil society organizations. These possibilities, by the way, are limited by Russian legislation itself, which does not allow, for example, the allocation of grants to non-residents of the Russian Federation.

PolitNavigator: By what methods and how effectively does Russia promote its influence in the Republic of Moldova, what areas of work are the most promising? Are the work formats of Rossotrudnichestvo and other Russian organizations effective?

Igor Shornikov: Rossotrudnichestvo in Moldova works strictly within the framework imposed by the legislation of the host country and the amount of available financial resources. In my subjective opinion, the volume and quality of this work fully meet the given parameters. Of course, we can demand more from this organization. But we must understand that Rossotrudnichestvo is, first of all, a government body, that is, a bureaucratic structure; not every official, even if he is a diplomat, is able to be creative and make a bullet out of jam. An official's range of methods and means is very limited, and initiative, especially in the field of diplomacy, is rarely encouraged. Russian foreign policy, including in the humanitarian sphere, is too far from allowing itself to interfere in the internal affairs of other states. Rossotrudnichestvo is not USAID.

Therefore, what Rossotrudnichestvo is doing is now, in general, close to the limit of this organization’s capabilities - supporting and implementing projects aimed at strengthening the historical memory of the people; promoting the preservation and development of the Russian language in the Republic of Moldova and educational projects in Russian; organization of cultural events, and in the last year - Internet conferences. It is noticeable that Rossotrudnichestvo tries to focus its activities on working with young people, and this is very important. True, all these efforts, by definition, cannot determine the vector of socio-political development of Moldova.

These areas of work are needed, but their effectiveness in the context of Russian regional interests (as they are understood in our region, and not in Moscow) raises natural questions. In our opinion, Russia should be interested in involving Moldova and Transnistria in the structures of the EAEU, making them part of the common market; is to ensure full rights, including political ones, to Russian-speaking citizens, as well as Russian citizens living here - and for this, the Russian language must have full official status not only in Transnistria and Gagauzia; to ensure the military-political stability of the region - which means that Russian military contingents should be based here not only to guard weapons depots and carry out peacekeeping functions, and there should be no talk of any kind of neutrality for Moldova - Moldova should be part of the CSTO. Is Russia promoting its own interests in Moldova? Obviously not. Worse, even an attempt to voice them can be regarded as interference in the internal affairs of the country. But at the same time, when the EU and the USA not only voice, but also consistently achieve similar goals, for some reason no one in “neutral” Moldova sounds the alarm. Moldova signed the DCFTA Agreement, opened a NATO information center in Chisinau, and the American adviser already oversees the Moldovan defense department. What remains of Moldovan neutrality, except for the entry in the Constitution?

It seems to me that Russia should not hesitate to formulate its interests and consistently promote them through economic, political-diplomatic, cultural and humanitarian means.

But I am sure that in Moscow there will definitely be intelligent people who will say: “Why should Russia be involved in Moldova and Transnistria? Why waste resources on an active foreign policy? Russia is already under Western sanctions, and NATO planes are in the skies over the Baltic states 500 km from Moscow - there is no need to anger the West, we need to appease it. For example, we can discuss what Russia will receive in exchange for the withdrawal of its military contingent from Transnistria?”

The policy of appeasing the aggressor is a textbook example from school history textbooks. I would like not only schoolchildren, but also adults to understand that such a policy can only lead to tragedy.

PolitNavigator: Russian language, Russian schools are an important component of Russia’s soft power. For a number of years, the Russian language was expelled from the CIS countries. How are things going with this in Moldova? Is it possible to promote and support Russian language and culture?

Igor Shornikov: In Moldova, the situation with the Russian language looks better than in most CIS countries, although at first events there developed according to the Baltic scenario.

The language issue became one of the main reasons for the creation of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic and the Gagauz Republic in 1990. The armed conflict on the Dniester ended in the defeat of Chisinau, and therefore Romanian nationalists in Moldova had to make some concessions to the Russian-speaking population - the Russian language retained the functions of the language of interethnic communication, education in Russian was preserved, and Russian-language media continued to operate. However, in the last decade, nationalists in power have launched a new attack on the Russian language: Russian groups in kindergartens are being liquidated, Russian schools are being closed, the number of specialties teaching in Russian is being reduced in universities; The 1989 law on the functioning of languages ​​was declared “outdated” by the Constitutional Court, and the broadcasting of Russian news and socio-political programs was prohibited.

The results of this policy are already visible. In Moldova, a fairly significant part of the younger generation does not know Russian, but considers Romanian their native language. The recent actions of the socialist faction in parliament to return at least some status to the Russian language and lift the ban on broadcasting Russian programs do not cause optimism for me personally - this is a step forward, after which two steps back will follow.

The Russian language retains its position in Moldova largely due to the population’s sabotage of the authorities’ policies, however, the space of the Russian language in Moldova is gradually shrinking.

PolitNavigator: Russia has made several proposals to combat the coronavirus pandemic - to form a “Greater Eurasian Partnership” and create “green corridors” free of sanctions. The Russian Federation has also developed vaccines that have interested a number of countries. Will Moldova be among the states that will receive Russian vaccines, how does the local population feel about this, and how likely is it that politics will interfere in medicine?

Igor Shornikov: Politics intervened. After Igor Dodon’s defeat in the elections, the issue of supplies of Russian vaccines was removed from the agenda by Chisinau. Shortly after the inauguration of the new President of Moldova, the head of the Romanian state paid a visit to Chisinau, during which he promised to allocate 200 thousand doses of the American-German vaccine to Moldova, which will soon begin to arrive in Romania.

Unfortunately, Russian initiatives are ignored by Chisinau, and here the questions are probably no longer for the Moldovan authorities. Moldova is rapidly losing the remnants of its sovereignty. The first violins in Moldovan politics are played by the American embassy and the EU delegation.

Moldova is among those countries that have been particularly hard hit by the coronavirus. I am sure that the population would be glad to see a Russian vaccine that could put an end to the growth of the pandemic in the country. Of course, this could become an element of soft power. Moreover, the Western vaccine, judging by the news, is extremely toxic. But Moldova will have to be content with the help of Bucharest, which will certainly try to withdraw political dividends from this action.

PolitNavigator: It is no secret that Russian compatriots, citizens of the Russian Federation, are faced with, to put it mildly, a cool attitude from the official authorities of Russia. What does it take to turn the situation around?

Igor Shornikov: For some reason, in Russia foreign Russians are treated with distrust. They are considered parasites who would like to extract resources from Russia simply on the grounds that they are Russian. They are told: “If you love Russia so much, then why are you still staying in the Baltic states, Ukraine, Moldova? Move to the Russian Federation and work for the good of the country together with other Russians.” Those who argue this way do not realize that the modern borders of the Russian Federation are a historical misunderstanding. The borders of Historical Russia are much wider, and the majority of those Russians who ended up abroad against their will and continue, despite unfavorable factors, to live in Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Moldova, Transnistria - these people are fulfilling a unique historical mission. At a time when Russia is going through another difficult stage of its development, they are holding its space behind it. Russia needs to support these people, encourage them to remain in their host states, including finding ways to support them financially. In Russia, not everyone realizes that ethnocratic regimes have developed in neighboring republics; Russian and Russian-speaking citizens, simply by virtue of their ethnicity, are blocked from accessing many areas of activity, and not only prestigious ones. In Moldova, for example, the entire field of medicine - from chief doctors to hospital cleaners - belongs to national personnel. Government bodies, police, transport - there are many such areas.

What needs to be done to turn the situation around? First of all, it is necessary that the Russian language continues to be a means of achieving success in life. We live in an information society in which distances and borders cease to be the determining factor. Accordingly, approaches to solving problems must take into account modern technologies. It is important that young people know that, thanks to their belonging to Russian culture, they will be able to receive a quality education in their native language and even find a decent job without leaving home. In our era, when distance education is becoming the norm, and part of the population works remotely, this should no longer seem like a fantasy. It is equally important that the social projects of the Russian state concern all Russian citizens, including non-residents of the Russian Federation. For example, more than 200 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation live in Transnistria, but they cannot use maternity capital in their small homeland - only on the territory of the Russian Federation. The current borders of Russia should not be a limiting factor for the development of the people. Many nations with powerful diasporas found ways to support their compatriots even in those days when there was no Internet - Jews, Armenians, Chinese. Why are Russians worse?

PolitNavigator: Romania actively uses soft power tools in relation to the Republic of Moldova. How serious is this competitor for Russia?

Igor Shornikov: With all due respect, Romanian culture is very poor compared to the cultures of many European countries. This is natural, given the youth of this state project. The space of the Romanian language, including on the Internet, is very modest, so the Romanian intelligentsia should expand its horizons by studying other languages ​​- English, French, German. In this regard, it is easier for residents of Moldova. Knowing the Russian language, they without much effort gain direct access to a wide layer of world culture. However, the Moldovan intelligentsia still does not seem to have realized its advantages over its Romanian neighbors. On the contrary, through the efforts of Bucharest, an inferiority complex is being imposed on Moldovans, since most of them speak their native Moldovan language, and not the “correct” literary Romanian, which is still different.

From the point of view of soft power potential, Romania is, of course, not a competitor to Russia. However, do not underestimate Bucharest's persistence and determination. Since the early 90s of the last century, Bucharest has been implementing a 10-point program aimed at preparing the conditions for the annexation of Moldova and a number of regions of Ukraine “peacefully”. These points were identified:

1.Romanian civil society. It is difficult to say how many non-governmental organizations are currently registered in Moldova, but it is known that hundreds of them are sponsored through various channels from Romania. For comparison, there were about 50 pro-Russian organizations - mostly cultural communities.

2.Romanian language. Translation of the Moldovan language into the Latin script and displacement of the linguonym “Moldavian language” from circulation.

3.Romanian media. A significant number of media outlets in Moldova are financed at Romanian expense.

4.Romanian administration. Graduates of Romanian universities traditionally enjoy priority in recruitment to the civil service in Moldova.

5.Publicity of Romanian claims. Through unionist organizations, Moldovans are constantly indoctrinated with the idea of ​​Moldova joining Romania as an inevitable prospect.

6. Displacement of the “non-titular” population. This process was especially active in the early 1990s. But these days, the economic situation is such that both “title” and “non-title” people go abroad to work.

7.Romanian history. In Moldova, schoolchildren study the history not of their state, but of the “history of the Romanians,” as if representatives of other ethnic groups did not live in this territory, and Moldovans did not exist at all.

8.Romanian Church. Bucharest established the schismatic “Metropolitanate of Bessarabia” in Moldova, subordinate to the Patriarchate of Romania. Under pressure from the EU, in 2002 the “metropolis” was legalized in Moldova.

9.Romanian citizenship. Since 2012, Romanian passports have been issued to Moldovan citizens without any delays. According to unofficial data, up to a million Moldovan residents may now have a Romanian passport.

10. It is possible to assume the existence of the “Romanian Army” program. In the 90s, officers and sergeants for the army of Moldova were trained in Romania. Currently, Moldovan military personnel are undergoing training in NATO member states, especially in the United States.

Does Russia have any analogue of such programs in relation to Moldova or any other state? The question is rhetorical. Therefore, against the backdrop of Romanian and, in general, Western activity, one may get the impression that Russia is not pursuing a policy of soft power in the region.

PolitNavigator: Question about Transnistria. They have always demonstrated their commitment to Russia and the ideas of the Russian World. However, this does not mean at all that the soft power of the Russian Federation is not needed here - the rivalry between the European and Russian civilizational models is also felt in this territory. How does Russia manage to increase its attractiveness in Transnistria and fight for the minds of young people?

Igor Shornikov: The Pridnestrovians made their choice in favor of Russia independently, consciously and, in a sense, even against the will of Moscow back in 1989. Over the years, several referendums have been held here, during which people spoke in favor of maintaining the Russian military presence in the region, for independence and subsequent accession to the Russian Federation. Pridnestrovians consider themselves part of Historical Russia, honor the memory of Alexander Suvorov, the founder of Tiraspol, Potemkin and Kutuzov, who annexed our region to Russia back in the XNUMXth century. In Transnistria, Russian educational programs operate in both schools and universities - children study using Russian textbooks. In Transnistria, the population has always had access to Russian channels. Every Transnistrian pensioner receives a special Russian pension supplement every month. The population uses Russian gas at preferential prices, people have something to compare with - Pridnestrovians have heard a lot about the prices for utility services in neighboring Moldova and Ukraine. And, most importantly, Russia’s peacekeeping mission on the Dniester is, in fact, carried out before the eyes of the residents. In Pridnestrovie they know how much Russia does here for its compatriots; Pridnestrovians pin their hopes for the future only on Russia.

But such a favorable image also has the opposite effect. Pridnestrovian applicants prefer to enroll in Russian universities, and those who studied at Pridnestrovian universities still find work in Russia. The outflow of young people to Russia is probably the most difficult challenge facing the Transnistrian state. In conditions of external economic pressure, it is difficult for the republic to offer youth opportunities for self-realization comparable to those in Russia. Over the years, the population of Transnistria has almost halved, and the process of depopulation continues. Russia must be interested in stopping him.

For thirty years, Pridnestrovians have done a lot to make Russia at home. Now, it seems to me, the time has come for Russia to also take care of this. The technological capabilities, as we said above, exist for this. How does the life of a Muscovite living in quarantine and working remotely differ from the life of a Tiraspol resident who is also able to work remotely? Firstly, the level of wages and, secondly, the fact that a Muscovite still has such a job, while a Tiraspol resident is sitting without work and waiting for the end of quarantine to go out to work. If Russia finds a way to use the free labor resource of its fellow citizens living outside the Russian Federation, this could become not just a factor of support for compatriots, but a powerful instrument of soft power that will return the Russian language to its role in the post-Soviet space, and make Russian education the most popular and in demand . It’s not unusual for Russia to defeat Western “champions”; it should win now.