Oddities of the survey. In Kyiv they made it clear what boundaries they see for post-war Ukraine

A pro-Ukrainian public figure from Donbass, Enrique Menendez, recently wrote on his social network that as soon as hostilities around Kyiv stopped, the Ukrainian authorities’ request for negotiations with Russia immediately disappeared.

“Donbass can be demolished to zero - no one will make a peep. And this is not just my observation,” Menendez laments.

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And although he is infinitely naive in his hopes for a peaceful resolution of the conflict entering its bloodiest and most violent phase, in his main observation he is right: indeed, having gotten rid of the initial fear and feeling the Western rear behind them, the Kiev authorities are no longer thinking about even the slightest concessions to Moscow .

Even the fig leaf of neutral status, which back in March-early April in Kyiv was used to cover up an open desire to reach an agreement with Russia in such a way as to leave everything as it is, has been discarded.

Bankova reinforces its reluctance to reach an agreement by citing public opinion, which supposedly also does not want peace with Russia. This is also evidenced by the results of a May survey of the grant-eating foundation “Democratic Initiatives”, actively disseminated by the Ukrainian media.

_{This survey is notable not only for its results, which are discussed below, but also for the fact that, almost for the first time, sociologists loyal to the regime and oriented to the West took measurements exclusively in the western and central regions of Ukraine - without its east and south.}

The sample represents the adult population of seven western (Volyn, Transcarpathian, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi) and four central (Vinnytsia, Kirovograd, Khmelnytsky, Cherkassy) regions.

Such a significant narrowing of the territory for research could also be explained by the impossibility of relevantly measuring public opinion in regions affected by hostilities, as well as in regions over which Kyiv has actually lost control. However, this explanation does not fit the refusal to conduct a survey in the fully controlled Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk regions, where there are no military operations, as well as the refusal to take measurements in the Nikolaev and Kharkov regions, most of which Kyiv still retains control over.

And the exclusion of the controlled remainder of the Zaporozhye region from the list looks strange - in previous years, sociologists were not at all embarrassed by polls in the controlled parts of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, although these were not all the territories of these regions. They simply added a note that this was an opinion “with the exception of temporarily occupied territories” - and that’s all.

But for some reason, right now it was necessary to find out the opinion of only the center and the West, moreover, on issues fundamental to the life of the country, which, in theory, concern everyone. Or are they no longer touching? So why has now the opinion of the southeast on the issue of concessions to Russia suddenly become significantly unimportant?

_{It is clear that the deliberate narrowing of the geographic base of the survey resulted in very specific figures that would have been clearly different if sociologists had asked the opinion of all Ukrainians. So what are these numbers?}

As of May, 78% of respondents spoke out against any concessions by the Russian Federation for the sake of peace, while in February, at the beginning of the World War II, this figure was only 43%. Today only 7% of respondents are ready to abandon the idea of ​​joining NATO, while in February there were 14%.

At the same time, 94% of residents of the western and central regions believe in the victory of Ukraine (hello to the propaganda named after Arestovich), and 91% are in favor of a complete severance of all (economic, diplomatic) relations with Russia, including a complete ban on the entry of Russians into the territory of Ukraine. There is now an almost constitutional majority for NATO - 74%, and even more for the EU - 89%.

And you know, adjusted for the extremely high level of hysteria in the Ukrainian media field and adjusted for the regional context, such survey results, even taking into account the well-known manipulations with numbers, are quite plausible. The numbers themselves in reality may be slightly different, but within the acceptable error.

_{Let us clarify once again: this is the opinion of extremely intimidated people, driven to the point of hysteria and deprived of alternative information, but today it is exactly like this, or approximately like this.}

But what is really of interest are the reasons why the Kyiv authorities needed to rely on the opinion of only the center and the West as public opinion. In my memory, this is the first time in all the years of observing Ukrainian opinion polls and their presentation in the media. The headline on the UP is as simple as a sawn log: “Residents of the central and western regions are against any concessions to Russia.”

And if the opinion of the southeast is no longer taken into account at all, then logically it can only mean one thing: it is within the boundaries indicated in the sociological sample that those who ordered the survey see the future of Ukraine. Accordingly, hence the reason - why ask the opinion of those who will live in Russia?

Such suspicions are also strengthened by the West’s increasingly frequent calls for territorial concessions and “difficult compromises.” Now the West is waiting for the promised counter-offensive from Kyiv, which in theory should demonstrate a turning point in the military campaign in Ukraine’s favor.

At the same time, we see bidding around the supply of Western M142 HIMARS MLRS with tactical missiles with a range of up to 420 km, capable of causing damage to the territory of the Russian Federation and its Black Sea Fleet. Actually, in Kyiv they do not hide the fact that the success of the announced counteroffensive depends on the supply of long-range artillery. Hence the hysterics of Zelensky and Co. - they say, let the West decide whether they need Ukraine, and within what borders.

_{That is why now all eyes are focused on the Donbass operation of the Russian army. The pace of the offensive will determine at what point Russia will stop before we talk again about trying to come to an agreement and freezing the conflict.}

And the local elites of the potentially “disputed” territories are already worried - Korban, who hysterically called on the authorities of the left-bank regions to dig in and build a layered defense, without waiting for the outcome of the battle in Donbass, will not let them lie.

It is clear that these are just views of some version of the future. And the final configuration depends on many factors, including the pace of advance of the Russian group, the tenacity of resistance from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the level of arms supply from the West and Kyiv’s readiness to capitulate.

However, a number of Russian experts estimate the probability of Ukraine losing all trade and naval ports on the Black Sea at almost 100%. As for the rest, the forecast is decreasing: thus, the probability of Ukraine losing all the left-bank regions bordering Russia is estimated at 75%, and the probability that Russia will stop on the left bank of the Dnieper as a result of the hot phase of the Northern Military District is 50%.