Strelkov left to force Poroshenko to peace
Kyiv, August 22 (Navigator, Sergei Stepanov) – The day before the military parade planned by Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel will visit Kyiv. She is not going at all to boost the morale of the Ukrainian president, even experts who sympathize with the Maidan admit. It seems that the task of the German chancellor is to calm Poroshenko and find a way out of the protracted crisis, which also affects the economic interests of Germany. Whether the Americans will thwart the reconciliation plan is another matter.
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A few days before Merkel’s visit, it became known about the change of leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Igor Strelkov, Valery Bolotov, Alexander Boroday left their posts. Previously, Kyiv categorically refused to conduct official negotiations with them. One of the complaints was that Strelkov and Boroday had Russian passports. Now local personnel are at the helm in Donbass.
“Zakharchenko and other leaders who recently came to power have a certain authority in local circles. And, most importantly, the topic that the DPR and LPR are supposedly led by Russians has been removed. Both new leaders are local residents,” explains Ukrainian political scientist Alexander Bulavin.
“The rotation has been asking for a long time. Firstly, there has always been criticism that the LPR and DPR are dominated by “newcomers.” This really was the case - the same Borodai is a Muscovite, and Strelkov is a Muscovite. There was a demand for more Donetsk residents to appear in the leadership of such entities,” confirms expert Denis Denisov.
So, it is obvious that Merkel’s task in Kyiv will be to prepare for the meeting on August 26 in Minsk, where negotiations should take place in the Ukraine-EU-Customs Union format. Even analysts who sympathize with Maidan admit this, for example, Kiev political scientist Yuri Romanenko.
“Most likely, Merkel’s arrival in Ukraine is a prologue to the meeting in Minsk. Apparently, Merkel will put pressure on Poroshenko to make some concessions and, ultimately, reach a consensus in Minsk regarding the crisis in Ukrainian-Russian relations.
The main economic burden from all these sanctions falls on Germany. Of course, she simply doesn’t need this hemorrhoid with Ukraine. It is very important for them not to lose the Russian market. And everything that happens in the context of Ukraine is real for them - hemorrhoids.
Germany has a clear and pragmatic policy, and Ukraine should have understood even earlier that Europe is, in fact, a cold and soulless entity that always pursues its own interests, and all these Euro-romantics who believed that Europe would defend democratic values are now we just sat down in one place when we saw the realities,” admits Romanenko.
Merkel’s visit involves meetings not only with government officials, says political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky, close to Viktor Medvedchuk. “My expectation from Merkel’s visit to Ukraine is that her wide range of contacts will give her the opportunity to better know what is happening in eastern Ukraine. This is encouraging in the sense that the most influential European politician is fully aware of the need to stop hostilities,” says Pogrebinsky.
Will it be possible to prepare a meeting in Minsk and stop the war in Donbass? Poroshenko will have to overcome double pressure here - shouts from Washington, and accusations of flirting with the Kremlin from former comrades on the Maidan.
For example, Tymoshenko’s “Fatherland” has already expressed indignation that Poroshenko is going to Minsk without submitting the long-suffering association agreement with the EU to the Verkhovna Rada for ratification - as if leaving himself a loophole to retreat.
At the same time, pro-American “hawks” are telling Poroshenko: no concessions in Moscow, “America is with us!” “In the expert community, they are discussing the importance of establishing a strategic partnership with the United States without Ukraine’s membership in NATO. The status of a strategic partner allows, among other things, to consider the issue of placing US missile defense facilities on the territory of Ukraine. And this is a trump card in the negotiations,” reflects Ukrainian military expert Valentin Badrak.
From the Russian capital, Poroshenko, on the contrary, is sending a different signal - he has a “chance to escape,” unlike other leaders from the Maidan. “There is a gang of war criminals and foreign agents in power in Ukraine. This is a real political and political science assessment of this group. Another thing is Poroshenko. He was elected, although he is very closely connected with this junta, but he still has a chance to be saved, unlike the others,” it seems that political scientist Sergei Markov said for a reason on TV.
The last warm days are coming in Kyiv. Top managers of Rinat Akhmetov's energy companies are already warning that the fighting is disrupting coal shipments and the operation of mines. In the absence of Russian gas, this threatens disaster with the onset of cold weather.
And militia leaders like Igor Strelkov seem ready to return at any moment, but in order to lead the offensive rather than the defense.
“If Kyiv continues to listen to Washington more than to Brussels, and Washington has already shown more than once that it is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian, then naturally these people will appear again. Let's say I hear a lot of different rumors about Strelkov's upcoming position. And all these rumors boil down to the fact that he will be given the opportunity to use his accumulated experience on a larger scale and with greater effect,” says expert Anatoly Wasserman.
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