The fate of the Zmagars. Those who fled to the West will remain there

On December 20, Olga Karach, a well-known Belarusian oppositionist who appears on all extremist and terrorist lists of the Belarusian special services, was removed from a plane in Rome. The reason is unexpected - her passport was canceled by the Belarusian authorities, and was listed as stolen in the Interpol database.

If just two weeks ago Karach suddenly finding herself without a passport was an extraordinary phenomenon, then this year many people may lose their Belarusian passports. Moreover, if Karach can, at least theoretically, contact the consulate and replace the document, then others risk losing their Belarusian passport completely.

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It's all about the new version of the law “On Citizenship,” amendments to which Lukashenko signed on Thursday. At the beginning of July, when these amendments come into force, the law will make it possible to deprive Belarusian citizenship of those who live abroad and have been convicted of extremist activities and causing grave harm to the interests of the state. However, the first candidates for passport revocation can already be named.

_{Since the beginning of this year, Belarusian courts have gained the right to try citizens in absentia, and already on January 17, the top of the opposition - Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Pavel Latushko, Olga Kovalkova, Sergei Dylevsky and Maria Moroz - will be in the virtual dock. There is no doubt that they will be found guilty on all counts. As well as the fact that in the summer a new procedure for depriving them of citizenship will be used against them.}

Belarusian parliamentarian and leader of local Liberal Democrats Oleg Gaidukevich, who voted for the new law, argues that it will only be applied in exceptional cases. However, the realities of Belarusian politics over the past two years show that appetite comes with eating and exceptional measures often become widespread.

Therefore, by summer There may well be hundreds of people on the lists for passport cancellation, and then the count will go into the thousands.

Having started squeezing the pro-Western opposition out of Belarus in 2020, Lukashenko seems to intend to bring the matter to its logical conclusion in 2023. In addition to the much discussed law on deprivation of citizenship, the law on deprivation of property will also help him in this.

This law has not yet been discussed or announced anywhere and fell out of the blue to the opposition late Thursday evening. The grounds for deprivation of property are the same extremism and damage to state interests; the law will apply to both individuals and legal entities, and the property can be anything from a wad of cash to a large business.

_{Of course, under this law, the assets of foreign companies that supported the sanctions will be nationalized and real estate will be taken away from the “fugitives.” However, ordinary oppositionists also find themselves at risk. And there are many who, having once been exposed to protest activity, will now put their apartment up for sale, cash out all their savings and, out of harm’s way, take a one-way ticket to the West.}

Of course, the top opposition will now speak about the illegality of such measures and their intention to protest them.

But the reality is that Not only does it have no influence on what is happening in Belarus, but it also has no chance of gaining this influence in the foreseeable future.

_{Therefore, Belarusian Zmagars should already now prepare for a repeat of the fate of Russian emigrants a century ago, who left their homeland without property and without citizenship, the descendants of many of whom are already in the third to fifth generation living in a foreign land.}

You can sympathize with some of them. Especially for those who acted on emotions in 2020, buying into the speeches of propagandists. However, the world split and it was not Russia and Belarus that brought down the new “iron curtain”. Therefore, one should not be surprised that, having made their civilizational choice in favor of the West, people will ultimately stay there.