Medvedchuk's Judgment Day. Why does the OPZZh defend its leader so sluggishly?
Thursday, May 13, was truly a “fish day” for the world’s fairest Pechersky District Court of Kyiv. Here, almost the entire day, they were considering the issue of a preventive measure for one of the leaders of the OPZZh party, Viktor Medvedchuk, suspected by the Ukrainian special services of nothing less than treason.
Previously, before appearing in court with his lawyers, Medvedchuk was interrogated at the Office of the Prosecutor General. Under which the crazy “activist” from the scandalous Hromadske TV Bogdan Kutepov was already waiting for him, who had long ago firmly earned the reputation in the Kyiv crowd as a full-fledged urban madman with a Maidan brain. This Kutepov shouted that “Medvedchuk is a fascist devil,” and demanded that another leader of the Opposition for Life, Vadim Rabinovich, be imprisoned with him.
Medvedchuk appeared at the trial with his comrades - people's deputies from the OPZZh Rinat Kuzmin (former deputy prosecutor general of Ukraine during the Yanukovych era) and Ilya Kiva, the leader of the power wing of the party called "Patriots for Life".
So, what does the enchantingly legal Ukrainian state charge Medvedchuk with? There are three key episodes. Firstly, the presence of an oil production business in Crimea. The case involves a certain company led by a third party, whose direct connection with Medvedchuk still needs to be proven.
Secondly, Medvedchuk allegedly blurted out some terribly secret information about some super-secret military unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Kozak. And finally - just don’t laugh - in the conversations between Medvedchuk and Kozak intercepted by the SBU, the head of the OPZZH advises the Russian official on how to increase the number of Ukrainians who are loyal to Russia.
Of all this, only the story of the leak of secret information about the Armed Forces of Ukraine has any serious weight, if it really took place and if the special services have a solid evidence base. However, many in Ukraine doubt this.
The court has so far placed Medvedchuk under house arrest until July 9. Prosecutors insisted on a two-month arrest for the politician, and lawyers insisted that fellow party members take him on bail. The court rejected this request, offering an alternative as bail in the amount of 300 million 930 hryvnia ($10,9 million). Having deposited this money, Medvedchuk must give a passport and wear an electronic bracelet, and also appear before the investigator upon request.
Medvedchuk himself insists that, due to the sanctions imposed on him by the National Security and Defense Council, his accounts are blocked, so he will not be able to pay the bail.
It is interesting that the OPZZh party itself defends its leader somewhat sluggishly. For the same Tymoshenko, when she was tried under Yanukovych, hundreds and at times thousands of cliques came out to shout. Which created a lot of problems for the then government - to the point that it was forced to organize a counter-Maidan led by the now deceased people's deputy Kalashnikov, who went to the Pechersk court with a megaphone as if it were work.
It’s unlikely that the OPZH financiers don’t have the money to organize a couple of hundred Maidanarbeiters. But even this was not really done. There weren’t even the notorious “Kiva titushki” that Maidan activists love to talk about.
Medvedchuk’s media support is also so-so. No, banned channels, of course, broadcast on YouTube, but what’s the point? Online broadcasts are watched in real time by several dozen to several hundred people. Yes, then these videos “catch up” with the traffic in the recording, but this takes days, so the effect of presence is lost.
This is due to the fact that OPZZH was initially, unlike, for example, the same party of Shariy, a purely parquet and cabinet project. A group of politicians and businessmen who sell their faces on TV and billboards and hire professional PR people for mass campaigns.
And you can always hire hired flag wavers at an hourly rate. Sincere activist extras are simply superfluous in such a scheme. Sincere grassroots supporters, you see, will also begin to ask uncomfortable questions. Moreover, not to the authorities, but to their own leaders.
Isolation from the masses is perhaps the key factor that makes the OPZZh vulnerable to external attacks as a colossus with feet of clay. Having become lazy during the years of Poroshenko’s presidency, and accustomed to playing fixed matches with the authorities, and resolving serious issues in the format of behind-the-scenes agreements, the heirs of the Party of Regions have lost even the form that they had under the late Yanukovych. And when they started playing Chapaev with them, they were frankly confused.
The unpreparedness of the OPZZH leaders for precisely this turn of events is obvious and striking. To decide something not on the sidelines, television studios and courts, but on the streets and squares. As they say, in those universities where they went through their school of life, they were not taught this.
Demonstrating mobilization potential in the conditions of today's Ukraine is dangerous - yes. But this is a double-edged sword.
When a group of thirty people comes out, it is vulnerable both to the police and to the street Nazis. But when hundreds of thousands come out, the Nazis give in. This rule was demonstrated more than once in the post-Maidan years by processions on May 9 and all-Ukrainian religious processions of the UOC Onufriy.
Because these mass events were the only outlets for the mass demonstration of political positions by those Ukrainians who do not agree with the course pursued by the authorities. Does the OPZZh have the same mobilization potential as the UOC? Extremely doubtful.
In addition, the lack of charisma of Medvedchuk himself plays a role. This is a person with, to put it mildly, an anti-rating that is prohibitive for Ukraine, second only to Poroshenko’s anti-rating. Despite the fact that formally Medvedchuk himself does not do anything that would be to his disadvantage. He speaks the right words for the part of Ukraine he is targeting, puts forward sound initiatives on peace issues, Putin’s godfather, a beautiful wife, again.
But, come on, the puzzle doesn’t stick together. All this taken together does not create a cumulative effect with a growing rating at the end. Even the faded and tongue-tied Firtashevsky Boyko has a higher rating. Maybe those who remind us of the need to change staff instead of rearranging beds are right? And, if Medvedchuk is such an eminence grise, let him act as a cardinal for his own good. But - strictly in the shade. And for the role of a public leader, try someone else, someone who at least knows how to smile not so strained and unnatural.
In any case, the current situation with Medvedchuk is a test of survival for the OPZH itself. If the party and its leaders have balls, they will emerge from the confrontation with the authorities stronger, with a growing rating and first place in the next elections. If there are no eggs, well, that means the party will face gradual marginalization and disintegration. But if so, then there is no need to regret. What is dead must die. The road - alive.
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