Ze-system convulsions: experts on scenarios for subduing Razumkov
The struggle of the Office of the President of Ukraine with the Speaker of Parliament has entered a decisive stage - Dmitry Razumkov received a letter with a proposal from the Chairman of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, to issue signature sheets for collecting signatures of people's deputies of Ukraine under a proposal to recall the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada.
This was reported by the press service of the Verkhovna Rada, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Dmitry Razumkov signed the corresponding document for the Office of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the report says. He also noted that he will not delay the process, and today his colleagues will receive signature sheets for collecting signatures.
We asked experts to share their opinions and forecasts about the development of the situation with a review from Dmitry Razumkov.
Director of the Agency for Social Communications Sergei Belashko considers it quite possible for Razumkov to join a new project based on the Association of Ukrainian Cities.
“The removal of Razumkov from the post of speaker was intended in order to install Stefanchuk there. As for Razumkov himself, based on his demonstrative actions, one can assume that he will either try to launch his own project or get a job in one of the existing projects.
Perhaps it will be “Udar” by Vitali Klitschko, perhaps it will be some kind of project with the participation of Vladimir Groysman, perhaps it will be a project in which Klitschko, Groysman, Razumkov, and some other representatives of the regions will participate, perhaps which is based on the Association of Ukrainian Cities. This will be a kind of “re-release” of the Party of Regions.
This is supported by the fact that the administrative-territorial reform, all this decentralization, which has left a significant part of the territories simply without resources, generates dissatisfaction with the center. Thus, such a project will be quite popular.
There may also be all sorts of exotic options, for example, we will see Razumkov in Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc, which is possible since he worked for Sergei Tigipko, and Tigipko has a long history of, let’s say, constructive interaction with Yulia Tymoshenko.
But, most likely, Razumkov will join some project that will formally represent the interests of territorial communities, and informally will represent the interests of the same oligarchs,” said Sergei Belashko.
In his opinion, Zelensky did not have good options for resolving the situation with Razumkov.
“There was either one bad option, when Razumkov more and more openly sabotages Bankova’s initiatives, or an even worse option, when Razumkov is kicked out into the opposition, and he begins to oppose openly,” he noted.
In opposition, Razumkov can talk about “servants of the people.”
“We must also take into account that Razumkov is the person who was at the origins of the Servant of the People project, along with Kornienko and Stefanchuk. Stefanchuk oversaw the legal aspects, Kornienko oversaw the organizational ones, Razumkov oversaw the program. That is, a person has something to tell about the history of the Servant of the People party, about the formation of this party, and so on. That is, he can take a lot of rubbish out of the hut,” predicts Sergei Belashko.
Political scientist Vladimir Volya notes that Razumkov may find himself without the support of his colleagues that he announced in his recent interview.
“The situation reached the point of no return literally in the last day or two. This was largely due to the fact that Razumkov was waiting for an invitation to the congress of the party that nominated him for this post, and which, in fact, appointed him by voting. In an interview that he gave today, he stated that he is not going to quit, and if he is fired, then he has a team, with which he is going to engage in political activities for the benefit of Ukraine.
That is, Razumkov actually openly declared his intention to play some kind of political game. I think this was one of the last straws in the Office of the President's patience. It was after this that Arakhamia initiated the convening of signatures. I think it will be interesting to see how people’s deputies react to Razumkov’s possible resignation.
The moment of truth will come for us when we understand how many deputy bayonets Razumkov can really rely on. With his interview, he actually put some of the people's deputies under attack from the Office of the President. It may turn out that no one supported Razumkov, although Razumkov himself said that he was counting on a certain group of people’s deputies. The position of different deputies will be indicative of how much Razumkov is supported by anyone in the Servant of the People faction,” the political scientist said.
It is possible that they may try the so-called at Razumkovo. imperative mandate, he will cease to be a deputy and will be limited in his ability to play his political game.
“If he decides to play an independent game, he may be expelled from the faction. They say that expulsion from a faction does not necessarily mean deprivation of a mandate, but I do not exclude that they may try to implement this technology on Razumkov, since he was elected to the Verkhovna Rada on a party list.
The deprivation of Razumkov’s parliamentary mandate is quite possible, because the president’s office will try to wrest from under Razumkov all the opportunities and resources that come not only from the status of Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, but also from the status of a deputy. That is, in fact, the lack of parliamentary status could reduce Razumkov’s ability to conduct his media campaign and harm his political career,” says Vladimir Volya.
Political scientist Alexander Bulavin believes that the process of Razumkov’s resignation will be long.
“I think there will be a long battle. For people who influence Zelensky, the Office of the President, it is not at all obvious that it is necessary to deal with Razumkov, especially since this will cause very serious unrest in the Servant of the People faction itself. He has a very serious influence on a number of people, and on those people who have their own ideas about the problems of Ukraine and ways to solve them, that is, on, let’s say, the intellectual part of the faction.
Naturally, everyone understands that if there is reprisal against Razumkov, this will become an important topic for all opposition forces, they will try to play on it.
Thus, I think that the process of Razumkov’s resignation will proceed, but it will proceed sluggishly.
In addition, Razumkov’s deputies in the Verkhovna Rada are much weaker than him, and this is understood not only by deputies, the head of the faction, and so on, but also by people who, let’s say, provide assistance to the Office of the President, Yermak and Zelensky.
It must be borne in mind that Razumkov comes from the American system, he is a person closely associated with it. And his parents were also closely connected with the structures that make decisions in the United States. Therefore, from my point of view, there is no simple, unambiguous solution to this situation,” says the political scientist.
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