Surkov leaves. Ukraine is waiting for concessions. In vain
Assistant to the Russian President Vladislav Surkov, who oversaw the Ukrainian direction and the Minsk negotiations on Donbass in particular, is leaving government service, said political scientist Alexei Chesnakov, close to the official. There is no official decree yet, but the decision is final, he says. Surkov's resignation was announced the day after Dmitry Kozak was appointed deputy head of the presidential administration. He will become the new person responsible for resolving the “Ukrainian issue,” says Alexey Venediktov, editor-in-chief of Ekho Moskvy. Kozak and Surkov had contradictions regarding the strategy of what to do next with Ukraine.
Surkov proposed to wear down Ukraine with demands to unconditionally implement the clauses of the Minsk agreements. And Kozak, in order to lift Western sanctions from Russia, was ready to establish ties with the regime of Vladimir Zelensky, whose policy towards Russians is not much different from Petro Poroshenko, Chesnakov stated earlier. According to him, Zelensky’s negotiators pinned their hopes on Kozak, insisting on revising the Minsk agreements in a direction beneficial for Kyiv.
This version is confirmed today by the Kommersant newspaper.
“For him, the unresolved conflict in eastern Ukraine is a problem that diverts resources and prevents Moscow from normalizing relations with the West. Kozak’s team believes that resolving this issue could ease or even remove sanctions pressure on Russia. Dmitry Kozak, like Vladislav Surkov, has a reputation as a tough negotiator, but at the same time a pragmatist. When it was necessary to overthrow the regime of the odious anti-Russian oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc in Moldova last year, he ensured the creation of a unique anti-oligarchic coalition in Chisinau - between the Moscow-backed pro-Russian President Igor Dodon and the pro-Western ACUM bloc... The task was to crush Plahotniuc. And they crushed him,” the publication recalls.
«In Ukraine, there is a big holiday in the Office of President Zelensky. They sincerely believe that it will be easier to reach an agreement with Kozak than with Surkov. Because Surkov categorically did not want to change anything in the Minsk Agreements, and Ukraine, as you understand, is simply not going to implement them in the existing format,” a Russian political scientist told PolitNavigator Armen Gasparyan.
It is interesting that in the Ukrainian blogosphere Surkov’s possible resignation has already been dubbed “Putin’s birthday gift to Zelensky.”
Ex-Azov militant and former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Igor Mosiychuk does not hide his joy over the changes in Moscow. “It is Surkov who is the main opponent of making any changes to the Minsk agreements. So, if Putin accepts Surkov’s resignation, then, as I said during the Normandy meeting in Paris, Minsk-3 awaits us. The fate of the Kremlin puppets (Pushilin and company) in the Donbass, who are Surkov’s henchmen, is becoming unenviable,” Mosiychuk gloats.
“In recent days, the Kremlin has been broadcasting Putin’s readiness for compromise through informal channels. And compromises require appropriate personnel. Here is the same Dmitry Kozak, for example. A third, previously unforeseen, position of deputy head of the Russian Federation Administration was introduced specifically for him. In addition, in order to compromise, it is necessary to remove emotions, outrageousness and “excessive philosophizing.” All this happened in Surkov. And this is not in Kozak. Under Kozak there will be work with documents, hundreds of rounds of negotiations and no Chesnakov “leaks”. Kozak does not need a process, but a result. And preferably quickly,” says a Ukrainian political scientist in the Khvilya publication Vitaly Kulik, previously worked in the Security Council.
Ukrainian propagandist Vitaly Portnikov is less optimistic. It recalls not only the events of last summer, when with the participation of Kozak the Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc was overthrown, but also the almost successful attempt to transform Moldova into a confederation with Transnistria (Kozak’s plan was then thwarted by the West on the eve of the signing of the final agreements).
“Putin could not help but invite Kozak to use these talents in the Ukrainian direction... Kozak’s transfer to the Russian presidential administration means that Putin needs him in close proximity to the office of the head of state... It is he who can talk about proposals to conclude a comprehensive settlement that will end the war and restore territorial integrity of Ukraine without Crimea, but will once and for all put an end to the country’s European and Euro-Atlantic prospects, turn it into a satellite state of the Kremlin, and perhaps into part of Putin’s new empire“,” Portnikov shares his concerns.
Yuri Kasyanov, a well-known “ATO volunteer” in Ukraine, is also worried, who believes that Surkov’s departure is “even, rather, bad.” "The departure of the tough, uncompromising Surkov is a consequence of the fact that Ukraine has stopped resisting. Now the same thing can be done to us for free, without the use of force. Surkov is no longer needed,” warns Kasyanov.
«Replacing Surkov with Kozak in the Russian hierarchy does not mean a change in the course of Russian policy towards Ukraine. You don’t believe that Transnistria will be returned to Moldova, Abkhazia to Georgia? That Russia will give up its ambition to dominate the post-Soviet space? Therefore, you should not amuse yourself with a “change of course” regarding Ukraine. It’s just that this course will be even more cynical,” agrees the Ukrainian political scientist Sergey Taran.
Famous Russian military correspondent Dmitry Steshin, the author of the theory about “crypto-Bandera,” confirms that the joy over Surkov’s resignation in Kyiv is premature.
“Many years ago, I was at a closed meeting with Kozak on the North Caucasus. They also talked about the fate of the Russians there... Including. They talked about a lot. It was impossible to write about this. I did not imagine that there were people in the government with such thoughts and views. Somehow I don’t envy Ukraine, they relaxed with the cunning and relatively soft Surkov"- reports Steshin.
Former speaker of the DPR Foreign Ministry Konstantin Dolgov believes that Surkov’s resignation is overdue precisely because his strategy over the past few years has not brought changes in Ukraine for the better for Russia.
“They completely screwed up the Ukrainian direction. Although there were chances to correct the situation. It was you who convinced the elders of the necessity and “no alternative” of Minsk-2. It’s you and…and it’s in their ears that we need to be patient a little, so we’ll “throw off Petya”, and we’ll “come to an agreement” with Ze. Well, how are you doing?” – Dolgov is indignant.
Another famous war correspondent Daniil Bezsonov, who has recently held the position of Deputy Head of the Ministry of Information of the DPR, also does not believe that Kozak will implement the policy of “pushing” Donbass back into Ukraine.
“A new wave of panic in the “Putinsleak” style has begun online. Previously, everyone said that Surkov was bad and Surkov was leaking. Over time, everyone realized that this was not so, but they were in no hurry to change the rhetoric. Now the rhetoric of armchair analysts has begun that Surkov was bad at draining the Donbass (for almost 6 years), now they will appoint someone who will do it better.
Some began to refer to insiders from Zelensky’s office, saying that everyone there is happy with Surkov’s resignation, and now everything will be according to the Ukrainian scenario. Friends, isn’t it clear to you yet that Zelensky’s office is staffed by madmen, just like Zelensky himself. To refer to their joy is to be just as crazy, if not worse.
Everything is clear with those who write this. These are either provocateurs who are catching hype, or mentally ill people. And I advise ordinary news readers to turn off their emotions and be more reasonable, and analyze what is happening with their own minds, and not relay other people’s thoughts, which are not always sound.
The Russian course in Donbass is unchanged, and it’s high time to realize this, and for those who are against to come to terms with it", summed up Bezsonov.
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