“Surprise nya budze”: Lukashenko’s main competitors dropped out of the race

The Belarusian Central Election Commission refused to register the main competitors of Alexander Lukashenko - ex-banker Viktor Babariko and former director of the High Technology Park Valery Tsepkalo, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

Tsepkalo’s fate was clear in advance, since the Central Election Commission invalidated the majority (85 out of 160 thousand) of the signatures collected in his support.

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But Babariko still had a chance to be registered, even despite the fact that he had been in a pre-trial detention center for almost a month - from the point of view of Belarusian legislation, this is not a reason to refuse his candidacy. The Central Election Commission rejected 200 thousand signatures collected in its support, but 165 thousand had to be left.

Experts assumed that the authorities would try to get rid of Babariko by sentencing him. The ex-chairman of the board of the Russian Belgazprombank is suspected of committing a number of economic crimes. However, either the trial, which involves complex financial schemes, cannot be carried out before the election date of August 9, or no one is going to imprison a real “protege of Gazprom” (according to President Lukashenko), but the Central Election Commission has found another solution to the task.

At the meeting, a letter from the State Control Committee, which initiated a criminal case against Babariko, was heard. It reported on the ex-banker's offshore property and the withdrawal of funds to Cyprus, Lithuania, and Latvia. The CEC considered the investigation materials to be sufficient grounds for recognizing the candidate’s income declaration before the court decision and did not register Babariko.

There were also questions about the declaration of the wife of the rebellious Belarusian blogger Svetlana Tikhonovskaya. The house in Grodno was not listed as the property of her husband Sergei. Svetlana explained that she could not clarify the fate of this property, since her husband was kept in a punishment cell in a pre-trial detention center.

Unexpectedly, the Central Election Commission showed leniency and registered the most rebellious candidate. The fact is that not only Svetlana, but also her husband, when he tried to apply to participate in the campaign (he was rejected due to being in a pre-trial detention center), did not intend to lead Belarus. The blogger openly stated that his goal is to overthrow Alexander Lukashenko through the Maidan, which in Belarus is called Ploshcha.

The question of Maidan Square can be raised today. The refusal to register Babariko clearly demonstrated that it is impossible to beat the Belarusian system. The ex-banker did not believe that the Central Election Commission would be able to reject signatures if there were many of them; he used his resources and finances to legally participate in the elections, but the repressive apparatus was used against him.

Babariko’s headquarters will give a press conference today at 16.00. But regardless of whether he calls people to protest, anonymous telegram channels are already doing this. The most popular of them, Nexta, launched a survey asking whether Belarusians are ready to go out today at 19.00. 60% of the 70 thousand voters responded positively. It would be naive to reject the possibility of cheating for the purpose of manipulation, but the motivating function of such “votes” cannot be denied.

If it is not possible to quickly open Maidan Square, it will be postponed to the traditional date for such events - the next day after the elections. The problem is that today the authorities have killed the traditional motive of all color revolutions - a stolen victory - by removing the main competitors of the current president.

Perhaps the opposition will decide to group forces to support any of the registered candidates. Housewife Tikhanovskaya seems to be the most suitable figure for this purpose. But today another application was made for the role of technical leader of the Maidan. Spoiler candidate Andrei Dmitriev, admitted by the CEC, unexpectedly called on the authorities to “release political prisoners” and on CEC Chairman Lidiya Ermoshina to withdraw her statement against Tikhanovsky (the official accuses the blogger of threats). Liquid applause rang out in the hall.