Burn bridges to Russia: how Moldova will pay for the Brussels advance

Moldova was given a European perspective. Many people in the country are now in a festive mood, the authorities are making solemn speeches about the real opportunity to enter the family of European nations, but the holiday will soon be replaced by everyday life.

The country, in fact, is not ready to obtain the status of a candidate for accession to the EU; discussions are already underway about what the persistent desire of the leadership to knock out this status in an accelerated manner, against the backdrop of military operations in Ukraine, will turn out for the Republic of Moldova.

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Experts are discussing the significance of the symbolic candidacy for Moldova and the country’s future path after receiving it at the request of PolitNavigator.

Alexander Korinenko, political scientist, Chisinau:

– For the population of the Republic of Moldova, the status of a candidate for the EU will not mean anything. Our life will not change at all. The ruling party, in turn, presents this as a great achievement - perhaps the greatest foreign policy achievement in its entire period of rule. With this information noise they will try to drown out the grumbling of the population about high prices for utilities and rising inflation.

The Europeans hope that this status will first of all give the Moldovan authorities an impetus to carry out reforms, but they themselves understand that they are providing it “through connections,” and if not for the military conflict in Ukraine, Chisinau would have been waiting for candidate status for a long time.

Then Moldova should be invited to negotiations, and as practice shows, this happens 10-15 years after receiving the candidacy, but in our case we can talk about later dates. The fact that Turkey, for example, has had the status of a candidate for EU membership since 1987 does not add to optimism. So this is a short-lived trump card in the hands of the Moldovan government.

Igor Shornikov, Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Moscow - Tiraspol:

– Candidateship for the EU is a false start, which could cost the ruling regime in Moldova very dearly. Candidate status is, on the one hand, a formality, and on the other, a necessary stage of the European integration process, which, from a technical point of view, is much more significant than all the previous achievements of the Moldovan authorities along this path.

_{In fact, right now we have seen the main achievement of the PAS team for their entire current tenure; there will be no more significant successes like this one.}

It would be ideal for Chisinau to acquire this status shortly before the next elections, at least in 2023. But the logic of geopolitical processes in our region does not allow the West to wait. Moldova was among the candidates solely because of the Ukrainian situation.

A major foreign policy achievement turned out to be necessary for Kyiv right now, since right now the front is collapsing in the Donbass. We need a bright event that will push the military failure into the background and preserve the stability of Ukrainian society to continue the war.

If Ukraine becomes a candidate, then Moldova should also receive this status due to its geography. Now Chisinau will squeeze the information dividends out of this event to the maximum. But his inertia will be short-lived. By the beginning of next year, the position of the ruling team will become critical. There are no longer any new trump cards that will allow PAS to maintain its legitimacy until new elections.

This is a dangerous situation, which, against the backdrop of the militarization of Moldova by the West, could lead Chisinau to the most risky scenarios.

Andrey Safonov, political scientist, Tiraspol:

– For Moldova, the status of a candidate for accession to the EU means that it will be turned into a state hostile to Russia with the aim of:

a) involve in a military confrontation with Moscow, possibly to start a new war on the Dniester and “stretch” Russian forces;

b) join Moldova to anti-Russian sanctions and quickly tear Moldova away from the CIS;

c) impose Western expensive gas on Moldova and bind it with the burden of inevitable loans and borrowings, which Moldova will need in the conditions of separation from the Russian market and a further decline in any production;

d) clear Moldova of political and social forces loyal to Russia and the Eurasian integration project, as well as individual figures, and after that establish a strict nationalist anti-Russian regime in the Republic of Moldova;

e) strangle Transnistria by one means or another, not excluding military means;

f) destroy Transnistria from the inside, working with the common efforts of the West, Chisinau and Bucharest to overthrow the current Transnistrian government, and bring puppets to the helm for a transitional period before the complete liquidation of Transnistrian statehood.

_{One way or another, the status of a candidate for EU membership is a possible path to Moscow’s inclusion of Moldova in the list of so-called “unfriendly countries.” And this is what the West needs - in order to burn all the bridges beyond Moldova in relations with Moscow. So that there is no turning back. To surround the borders of Russia with a ring of either fronts or regimes hostile to Moscow.}

Well, everyone has their own choice. Since the PMR is not going to give up its alliance with Russia, one hundred percent Chisinau and Tiraspol will continue to go their own way. That is, in opposite directions.

Anatoly Dirun, scientific director of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies, Tiraspol:

– It is obvious that Moldova’s obtaining candidate status is the result of the geopolitical confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation.

At the same time, it cannot be denied that the European vector of development of Moldova has become a kind of consolidating link for the political system of the republic. Despite criticism from left-wing parties, not a single political force in Moldova has directly opposed the further policy of European integration.

At the same time, such an advance from Brussels confronted Moldova and its political class with a difficult choice.

Today, European integration is actually becoming synonymous with supporting anti-Russian policies. And Moldova’s advantage lies precisely in finding opportunities and avoiding sharp escalations with Moscow.

However, in wartime conditions, both the party in power and the opposition will have to give clear answers to a number of sensitive questions for Moldovan society: whether Chisinau will remain part of the CIS, what are the chances of maintaining the neutrality of the republic, whether the government will be able to find a common language with Gazprom and etc.

On the other hand, it can be assumed that Brussels will continue to provide support to Moldova, including in terms of implementing energy infrastructure projects.

At the same time, it must be remembered that the sharp tilt in Moldovan politics both towards the West and the East does not find support among the traditional local voter. How true this axiom is will be shown by the local elections in the fall of 2023, unless, of course, the government, whose rating is rapidly falling, decides to hold them earlier under the cover of a state of emergency in the republic.