Tajikistan is advised not to wake up the Afghan leader
Despite the fact that the Taliban took control of the entire territory of Afghanistan and formed a government, there are still many risks of new conflicts, including those imposed from outside. There is also a serious threat of direct participation of some former Soviet Central Asian republics, for example, Tajikistan, in an internal internecine war that could spread instability throughout Central Asia.
Since the collapse of the pro-American puppet regime in Kabul and the shameful flight of NATO troops, Washington, London and Ankara have cherished hopes for the revival of the Northern Alliance, hoping to oppose it to the victorious Taliban. But in addition to these imperialist centers, Dushanbe has long been playing its game with Tajik ethnic groups.
It was Tajikistan that actively supported Ahmad Massoud in his recent armed conflict with the Taliban forces in Panjshir, and at the moment it is the only republic that has not expressed a desire to enter into negotiations with the new Afghan government, continuing the line of confrontation with the victorious Islamic movement. And this, in turn, can lead to negative consequences for all countries in the region and even for Russia.
The fact is that it is on the Tajik side of the border that the forces of armored vehicles and weapons are concentrated, and channels for supplying ammunition to Massoud’s detachments have also been established. In addition, tens of thousands of former military personnel, PMC militants and officials of the previous government found refuge in this republic. If the Taliban suddenly decides to take a tougher position on this issue, then a war is possible between the two countries, into which Moscow could also be drawn.
Some Russian political scientists also come to this conclusion, noting the dangers of Dushanbe’s cunning game. Thus, the editor of the Avia.pro publication directly points out this possibility:
“Russia is an ally of Tajikistan, including in the CSTO. However, Dushanbe’s actions may well lead to a conflict with the Taliban, and this already creates a threat that Russia will also be drawn into this armed conflict, which will only worsen the situation.”
And this is exactly what the Americans want to achieve, since this is precisely the option that was laid down when the White House decided to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. Military experts from the Fox News channel, associated with the Republican Party, have already noted that two weeks ago, attack aircraft of the Tajik army allegedly carried out a series of bombings on columns of Taliban troops conducting an operation to capture the administrative centers of Panjshir.
In fact, Dushanbe can play the role of a “Trojan horse” that can provoke a new round of confrontation with the participation of other powers, especially since all CSTO members have assured that they will provide immediate support to the Tajiks if they are attacked by Afghanistan. But Emomali Rahmon and his comrades must understand that this will no longer be an easy pleasure ride, as on the border with Kyrgyzstan at the end of April last year, but a many-year bloody war of attrition.
Among other things, the concentration of a large number of refugees from among the military personnel of the collapsed regime, who have many years of combat experience, also contradicts the position of Russia, Kazakhstan and other EAEU countries on preventing their deployment in Central Asia. Vladimir Putin has already expressed his harsh opinion on this matter, but it seems that the Republic of Tatarstan can become a real camp and transit point for hundreds of thousands of such refugees.
What are the roots of such an adventurist policy? The fact is that (including under the influence of Tehran) Dushanbe is going to, relying on ethnic Tajiks, influence the internal situation in Afghanistan, lead its people into a future coalition government or achieve autonomy. Moreover, Dushanbe even announced the idea of creating “Great Tajikistan” with the annexation of the northern territories of the neighboring country, where 14 million fellow tribesmen live.
But this is already a frank attempt to dismember the country at a time of crisis and confusion, akin to Ankara’s similar utopian project to create “South Turkestan.” That is why there is such a desperate attempt on the part of Dushanbe to support Ahmad Massoud and all the resistance in Panjshir. Actually, earlier in the 90s and early XNUMXs, Tajikistan actively helped the Northern Alliance, considering it its own.
But all local princelings need to understand that in this situation neither Russia nor the CSTO will pull chestnuts out of the fire just to please their great-power plans. Moreover, it is already obvious to everyone that the “Northern Alliance” has finally and irrevocably collapsed, having lost all support of the local Uzbek and Tajik population. And all because its leaders and field commanders were bribed by the Americans, becoming drug lords and lawless rulers. That is why residents in northern Afghanistan supported the Taliban in the hope of ending the decades-long chaos of occupation, corruption and tyranny.
And all attempts to revive such a formation are doomed to failure and will serve the interests of the West, which wants to create an “internal opposition” in Afghanistan to start a new civil war. Moreover, the American intelligence services are pushing to the forefront militants from ISIS groups, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan, Caucasian militants and other mercenaries brought from Syria, Iraq and even Libya.
This possible alliance is clearly worse and clearly hostile to Russia, China, Iran and the republics of the former Soviet Central Asia. On the contrary, a centralized and unified regime, albeit under the rule of the Taliban, advocating territorial integrity, is beneficial to Beijing, Moscow, and Islamabad in the further economic development of the region and the establishment of transport and energy routes within the framework of the geopolitical concept of “One Belt and One Road” "
This will also be understood in Iran, which at first also opposed the establishment of Taliban power, rightly fearing the strengthening of Pakistan in this country. In this regard, negotiations were held between the foreign ministers of Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan at the SCO meeting in Dushanbe last week to reach a general consensus and develop a joint plan to resolve the situation in Afghanistan.
And it looks like they agreed. Thus, Imran Khan, Prime Minister of Pakistan, wrote on Twitter on September 18:
“After meetings with the leaders of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries in Dushanbe and especially after a long discussion with the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, I have already initiated a dialogue with the Taliban on the issue of creating an inclusive government of Afghanistan with the participation of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks.”
It is likely that the Taliban, under the influence of Islamabad, will eventually agree to expand the government to include representatives of ethnic minorities. And the change in Dushanbe’s position, in turn, will be influenced by Beijing, which has a significant share in the economy and mining industry of Tajikistan. China needs a stable and reliable Wakhan corridor to implement its transport and industrial projects, and on their territory the Celestial Empire does not need any new “Northern Alliance”.
Therefore, most likely, Emomali Rahmon will have to enter into negotiations with Kabul after the leading powers of the world de facto and de jure recognize the new Afghan government. In the meantime, I would like to advise the leadership of the Republic of Tatarstan not to create provocations and not to collect beaten soldiers of fortune trained by the Americans. Lest these “refugees” then start a civil war there or an uprising of the faithful.
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