Bargaining with the West or mercy? Why does Lukashenko return fugitive Zmagars?
The weather on Monday in Minsk was not good. The day turned out to be cloudy and cool. But, talking about the political weather, many started talking about the thaw. Lukashenko did what he had long promised - he created a commission to work with fugitive oppositionists who wanted to return to their homeland, who left the country after the 2020 riots and their suppression.
Why did he need to return his not the most trustworthy citizens to Belarus and doesn’t the signed decree mean the upcoming liberalization of the Belarusian regime?
There could be many reasons for such a step. Here we can talk about an attempt to bargain with the West. In exchange for forgiveness of the least dangerous part of the Zmagars, he can count, if not on a reduction in sanctions pressure, then at least on the fact that the adoption of new painful sanctions packages will be put on pause.
There is also a propaganda motive. Lukashenko is now stronger than ever and can afford demonstrative generosity towards defeated enemies. There is no doubt that pro-government media will be able to effectively present the work of the commission to the electorate.
The economic effect cannot be denied - the return of a significant number of taxpayers to the country is useful in itself, and if you also collect fines that replace prison sentences, you will get a replenishment in the treasury, which will definitely not be unnecessary.
But you definitely shouldn’t count on liberalization – that’s not why “draconian” laws were adopted for two years, expanding the list of manifestations of extremism and increasing criminal liability for them. Against, the return of fugitive oppositionists will only mean a weakening of the Belarusian opposition. It is not for nothing that the opposition media frighten their audience with stories about the misadventures of those who were arrested by Belarusian law enforcement agencies after returning and publish polls indicating that there are few people willing to return.
Most of those who return will sever their ties to the opposition and live the lives of ordinary law-abiding citizens. With the new laws you won’t be able to rebel much. But even those few who want to become active again will likely be a problem for the opposition.
There is no doubt that one of the conditions for return and release from criminal liability will be “active repentance.”
This will not necessarily mean repeating the path of the “Azovite” Protasevich, who, having fallen into the hands of the Belarusian special services, immediately changed his color and from a “terrorist” became a state propagandist and employee of a pro-government human rights organization. There will be such people, but it’s enough just to provide state security with the necessary information. Everyone who returns will be “on the radar” of the special services, and former colleagues in the opposition will no longer be able to trust them.
Therefore, the top opposition is afraid of the return of its supporters from emigration to Belarus. But there will be those who want it and, most likely, there will be a lot of them. Now there are different estimates of the number of people who left the republic. The oppositionists themselves talk about almost a million people, Immigration statistics of Lithuania and Poland – about 150 thousand, and Lukashenko, appointing Prosecutor General Andrei Shved to the post of chairman of the new commission, about two to four thousand. There is probably some truth in each of these figures.
A million is the estimate of all Belarusians abroad. The lion's share of them are migrant workers leaving to work in Russia and Europe. These people, as a rule, have no political motivation. Even if some of them are dissatisfied with their own power, the main purpose of their departure is money. After February 24, many Belarusian citizens left for Europe, fearing sanctions and involvement in hostilities. Now many of them have already returned or gone to work in Russia. This was due to problems with obtaining visas, unfriendly attitudes towards Belarusians and millions of Ukrainians who rushed to Europe and collapsed the labor market.
150 thousand are those who left for a long time and received a residence permit or humanitarian visa. There are already more “political” ones here. Someone simply worked in the team of one of the opposition candidates in the summer of 2020, went to a rally or wrote something seditious on social networks, and then, fearing persecution from the authorities, left the country.
However, most of these people have not done anything serious and can expect to return, at worst, to get away with a fine. Many in a foreign land have already become disillusioned with the opposition that is always squabbling and trying to drag them into the war. In addition, tens of thousands of IT specialists also fall into this category. Yes, many in this environment do not like Lukashenko, but their main reasons for emigration are still economic.
And finally, 2-4 thousand is directly an opposition asset. These are the people who were seriously involved in protest activity and against whom criminal cases have been initiated at home. Whether to let them back and under what conditions will be decided individually in each specific case, but There will be no talk of any mass political amnesty.
The bulk of the “returnees” will be from the middle group. While the leadership of the opposition has settled down quite well abroad, things are not so good with the bulk of the migrants. Not everyone was able to fit into the new life. There are problems with the attitude of locals, it is difficult to find qualified work, and life prospects are unclear.
There are a lot of such “non-fitters” and the top of the opposition cannot offer anything other than sending them to the “Kalinovsky Regiment” to fertilize the Donetsk steppes.
But this prospect seduces few. For almost a year of war, despite active propaganda, they managed to gather a hundred or two militants. I am sure that there will be at least ten times more people who want to return home to a peaceful life, and in the spring thousands of prodigal Belarusians will flock back.
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