Trump will try to sell recognition of Crimea to Russia at a higher price
If Donald Trump manages to concentrate control over foreign policy in his hands, then the world “is in for an exciting period,” writes Rostislav Ishchenko, president of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting, in Izvestia, noting that the new US president may try to “pump resources that were spent before to maintain the illusion of American hegemony, to solve the most complex American social, financial and economic problems.”
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“Donald Trump is extremely practical, cynical, realistic and will not give anything to anyone for nothing,” the expert emphasizes. “Neither the recognition of Crimea, nor the lifting of sanctions, nor anything that would be significant for bilateral relations will just happen. Trump will bargain like mad, trying to sell concessions at a higher price. The only thing that will limit him is time. In two years, Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream will start operating, and the critical dependence of Russian gas transit to Europe on the Ukrainian pipeline will finally disappear. If he wants to be elected to a second term, then in two, maximum three years, Trump will also have to present voters with significant domestic political achievements. Resources for them can only be found by curtailing foreign policy activity.”
According to the political scientist, Trump has about two years to bargain with Russia, and as a “gesture of goodwill” to both Russia and China, a final curtailment of the US presence in Central Asia is possible.
At the same time, the publication emphasizes that Trump is “an unconventional personality and a difficult negotiating partner,” and the situation in which the United States finds itself will require “unconventional decisions and unexpected moves from him.”
“It won’t be boring with him, but it won’t be easy either. However, neither Russia, nor the USSR, nor any American president ever had it easy. The geopolitical struggle between Pax Americana and the Russian World will not go away, Ishchenko predicts. – It will simply take other forms, perhaps on the part of the United States it will become less emotional, less ideological, more pragmatic, but no less dramatic. Trump will try to return the US to the habit and ability to kill any game and drink fresh blood. But for now they need a break to lick their wounds and grow new beaks and new claws.”
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