Trump dances a gypsy girl with feathers in one place
At the parade in Kyiv, Ukrainian soldiers marched like prisoners. NATO soldiers view Ukraine as a battlefield. America is unable to defend itself against North Korea. Trump faces impeachment. Americans have a lot to lose. Coexistence with the United States requires the unity of society, modern weapons and the ability of elites to use them.
Military historian and expert Vlad Shurygin added healthy optimism to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
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Valentin Filippov: Vladislav, hello.
Vladislav Shurygin: Good afternoon.
Valentin Filippov: As a military expert, historian, please tell me. In Kyiv there was a “parade of winners,” as they themselves call it. Tell me, have there been such precedents in history - absolutely all military units passing through Khreshchatyk were without weapons, even without small arms. And the Ukrainian military was even searched by the American military before the parade. What is this connected with and what does it mean?
Vladislav Shurygin: You know, I remember one parade just like this. True, not personally, I didn’t exist then. This was the famous parade of 1944, when approximately 50 thousand captured Nazis paraded through Moscow. They also walked without weapons. They walked in neat rows, with excellent German bearing. The generals are ahead. Behind them were Obersts, then various captain-lieutenants and a long line of soldiers in parade formation. They were paraded around Moscow, then the paving stones were washed behind them with watering machines, and this parade ended for many of them somewhere in the Siberia region; not everyone returned home, some fertilized Siberia with themselves. Well, those who returned are probably filled with the best memories of this sunny day. About the warmth and cordiality of Muscovites who greeted this parade.
Valentin Filippov: Good analogy. The only thing that scares me is that Khreshchatyk is not being washed yet.
Vladislav Shurygin: You know, speaking seriously, this parade, of course, leaves very mixed feelings. The most interesting thing is that Svidomo immediately began to remember that NATO soldiers also took part in the Victory Parade in Moscow. It really happened. But this was the anniversary Victory Parade. And it was not NATO soldiers who passed through, but soldiers from the victorious countries who were specially invited for this purpose. And, in fact, that was the only point. And they were far from the first. Moreover, they did not host the parade. The American President was also on the honorary podium, but they were not the people who were hosting the parade. Therefore, of course, these things are incomparable.
Ukraine, as always, is running ahead of the rest. She is ready to host any parades, as long as they are parades of allies, behind whose backs she is ready to hide. And exchange any of your sovereignty for these parades. Even sovereignty on weapons. Because military parades are different from any physical training event that the army undergoes. The army demonstrates its power. And power is its weapons. When an unarmed army passes, it is more reminiscent of the famous Roman triumphs, when captive barbarians were marched through Rome. They carried trophy attributes. And thereby confirmed the power of Rome. Here Ukraine itself held such a parade, where it played the role of barbarians.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, let's be serious about this parade. How much is it, 600 kilometers to Moscow? NATO military is 600 kilometers from Moscow. Crimea seems to be ours, but something is being built in Ochakov. Is there a danger that the parade will become eternal? And this greatly violates the security system of the Russian Federation.
Vladislav Shurygin: Well, this system has long been destroyed, unfortunately. And it was destroyed in 1991. And if we talk about today's events, it's already been three years. In fact, Ukraine in its current completely wretched state has existed for three years. And for three years she has been running into the arms of that same NATO. Can we influence this? Stop? No. In the form in which this is happening now, it is impossible. But NATO on our borders is not news for Russia. Let me remind you that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have had NATO for a long time. We have long perceived this threat as absolutely real. Another thing, of course, Russia was not ready to see Ukraine in the role of such a NATO litter. And this required a very great effort to fend off this threat. To date, this threat has also been countered.
The terrible thing is that these wonderful and kind NATO soldiers are people who completely cynically and calmly view Ukraine as a kind of field zone in which they will stop the Russians. And all these wonderful Ukrainian gardens, and kvitochki, and grain fields under the blue sky - they will just be a battlefield that is of no value. And this suicidal position is a little surprising. But only a little. It is already pointless to be surprised at such cynicism and stupidity of the Ukrainian leadership.
Valentin Filippov: If we talk about the destruction of the security system, that various tracking, warning and early interception bases are located closer and closer to our borders... We remember how missile defense systems appeared in Poland and Romania, which were designed to stop the problem of Iran and Korea for some reason- That. And then suddenly Korea conducts tests. And now half of the American fleet is grazing there, threatening this Korea, and the ballistic missile perfectly overcomes this entire Korean-Japanese sea, crosses the entire territory of Japan and goes somewhere in the direction of the United States. And no one intercepts it.
What's this? Americans can't? Do not want? Maybe America is not so secure? With its own bases, systems...
Vladislav Shurygin: To some extent, you answered the question. In fact, the situation is that in the area where the Americans could intercept that missile, the interception would actually mean the start of a war with North Korea. Because this area was located over North Korean territory. This was the starting area. As soon as the missile left this zone, it was effectively out of reach of American missile defense systems. Let me remind you that the entire American missile defense system is based at altitudes of up to 50 - 70 kilometers. And the rocket that was tested went to a height of 550 kilometers. This is already a cosmic trajectory in airless space, this is the trajectory of a ballistic missile. Neither the United States nor its allies simply have the means to intercept it.
In addition, we must again take into account international law, which does not at all prohibit anyone at this altitude from flying over the territory of any country. Let me remind you that our famous station, which is now in space, flies at an altitude of 200-250 kilometers.
Valentin Filippov: So, wait, did this rocket go higher than the station?
Vladislav Shurygin: Yes. She passed higher than the station. And here you need to understand that she went through such throwing tests.
Valentin Filippov: Do I understand you correctly that, theoretically, Pyongyang, this North Korea, which everyone accuses of backwardness, will in the near future be able to reach US territory with its missile weapons? In space the range is adjusted by other parameters.
Vladislav Shurygin: Not exactly, there are some nuances there, but you need to understand one simple thing. The Koreans made it very clear: they launched a single-stage missile at a range of 2700 kilometers. Some experts claim that its estimated range is 3500. But the single-stage missile is the most complex element. Then everything is a little simpler. Hanging the second stage is already an order of magnitude easier than driving the rocket onto the initial trajectory. And with the second stage, the missile becomes long-range ballistic, and a range of 6,7,8 thousand kilometers ceases to be unattainable. In the next 5–6 months, it can be assumed that the Koreans will demonstrate a missile that will be capable of reaching US territory. And then very serious, as they say in computer technology, troubles for the Americans really begin.
Valentin Filippov: Let's put ourselves in the place of the United States. Which problem is more important for them, Russia or Korea and China?
Vladislav Shurygin: America's biggest problem is America itself. Hanging over Trump is the sword of Damocles of investigations and threats of impeachment, under which they are trying to drag him down. And Trump really didn’t want to get involved in any confrontations, he was going to deal with internal problems, but he was forced to dance a gypsy girl with hawk feathers stuck in one well-known place. On the other hand, in Korea we see a young man of 28 years old who needs to vigorously and quickly demonstrate to the nation and the world that he is truly an independent and self-sufficient leader. And within this framework, we see a situation that the world is observing with a certain horror. I don't share this horror. I believe that in this situation a military outcome is very unlikely. Those same Americans have too much to lose, and it is simply impossible to defeat Korea so that it sues for peace.
Valentin Filippov: Do I understand correctly that in order to come to some kind of coexistence with America, they just have to go to the end, because they have something to lose?
Vladislav Shurygin: In order to coexist with America, you need to have three things. First of all, the internal unity of society, which was demonstrated by Iran, which for ten years, being under sanctions, did not lose its internal unity, making these sanctions meaningless, which the Americans were forced to admit. It is necessary, of course, to have a developed military industry capable of producing modern equipment and weapons. And you need to have a political elite that is capable of correctly using all these hidden and not entirely obvious advantages. Have a normal will.
Valentin Filippov: Let's hope that this will be enough for us too.
Vladislav Shurygin: Fine. Okay, go ahead, good luck.
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