IMF tranche will not save Ukraine – economist
The money that Ukraine can receive from the IMF this year is not even enough to pay the IMF itself.
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Economic expert Viktor Skarshevsky stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The significance of this tranche is greatly exaggerated. For the last four years, the Ukrainian government has been living from tranche to tranche - if they give it, then everything is fine, if they don’t give it, then everything can be blamed on the IMF - they didn’t give it a tranche, that’s why we have such a devaluation, that’s why everything is bad. The IMF also plays the role of such an object of shifting responsibility from the Ukrainian government,” he says.
According to the expert, if there is no tranche in the first half of the year, then we must forget about the tranche until 2020. but even if the IMF gives this tranche, all these funds will go back to it - this year Ukraine must pay the IMF $2,4 billion, and the maximum it can receive is $1,9 billion.
“They often say that other loan money is tied to the IMF tranche, for example, macro-financial assistance from the IMF, but these are also meager amounts that will in no way save the Ukrainian economy from those peak payments that begin this year and will last 3-4 years. If we collect all external and internal payments on foreign currency bonds, then this year it will be necessary to pay more than $7 billion, next year - about $8 billion. And we must also take into account the lawsuits in which Ukraine is likely to lose and is already losing - “Naftogaz “Ukraine must pay $2 billion to Gazprom, $3 billion in payments on Russian bonds, and $1,5 billion in confiscation to offshore companies from which these bonds were taken away. This is another 6 billion dollars. And the tranche will not save Ukraine from the need to restructure its external debt,” Viktor Skarshevsky is sure.
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