Transit of Russian gas. What is allowed to Slovakia is not allowed to Moldova

Ukraine has expressed its readiness to continue the transit of Russian gas through its territory, although it does not intend to renew the agreement with Gazprom, which expires at the end of 2024. Kyiv can provide this service to European countries provided that one of its European partners asks for it and acts as a transit country for its gas, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said after discussing the issue with his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico.

There is no firm decision in Kyiv yet: The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine has ruled out any commercial agreements on the transportation of Russian gas through the country to Europe after 2024.

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The European Commission hastened to declare that the EU is not interested in continuing the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, but The final decision on this matter will probably be taken by the new composition of the EC after the June elections to the European Parliament.

On possible developments, including for Transnistria, which depends on gas supplied by Gazprom, in an interview with PolitNavigator, says the director of the Tiraspol Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, associate professor of the Financial University Igor Shornikov.

PolitNavigator: What is happening around transit? Ukraine has doubts about whether it is worth losing significant income from gas transportation?

Igor Shornikov: There are European states that are not ready to sacrifice their national interests for the sake of the blockade of Russia, and these states within the EU find leverage to protect them. Hungary, Austria and Slovakia have already indicated their interest in the supply of Russian energy resources.

There is a version that Slovakia and Hungary oppose the EU’s allocation of a three-year 50 billion loan for Ukraine, but in exchange for Kiev extending the transportation of Russian gas and oil after 2024 may become more accommodating on this issue.

This is, firstly, and secondly, transit of energy resources brings significant income to Kyiv, which he cannot afford to refuse, even if he really wants to annoy Moscow.

PolitNavigator: It was said that Ukraine would enter into a transit contract not with Gazprom, but with European companies. Slovakia is ready to integrate into such a scheme. Will it suit Gazprom? 

Igor Shornikov: Lately it seems that Gazprom is no longer so interested in European consumers as before. The company is now focusing on the eastern markets, and has also concentrated on working for the domestic consumer.

But gas supplies to Europe are more likely a matter of big politics rather than a market economy.

Therefore, if individual EU countries want to cooperate with Russia, perhaps such a desire can be supported if Russia needs it.

It seems to us that Russia needs supplies through Ukraine to a greater extent precisely to ensure stability around Transnistria, and the problems of EU countries, even those with adequate national governments, are secondary issues for Moscow.

PolitNavigator: Perhaps Moldova will somehow participate in the proposed scheme? How might Kyiv's decision affect relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol?

Igor Shornikov: If a scheme for supplying Russian gas to Europe is developed, Moldova, in theory, could use a similar mechanism without political consequences for itself. However, what may be allowed to Hungary and Slovakia, which assert their subjectivity in European politics, does not mean at all what will be allowed to Moldova, which must strictly implement the Western agenda and forget about its national interests.

The issue of continuing Russian energy supplies to Moldova, as we see it, depends on the speed of Chisinau’s accession to the Third EU Energy Package, which involves, in particular, the inclusion of Moldova in the system of European electricity and gas consumption. As long as Moldova does not have enough expensive European energy resources, it will be “forced” to use cheap Russian ones.

And for this, not only supply volumes are important, but also their logistics. Currently, Moldova is not connected to the Romanian energy system and, if gas supplies to Transnistria, to the Moldavian State District Power Plant, are stopped, it risks being left without electricity.

_{Therefore, the likelihood of stopping gas transit in Transnistria from 2025, despite the change in Kyiv’s position towards EU countries, still remains.}