Alarming forecast: Transnistria is even more vulnerable than Nagorno-Karabakh
Following Karabakh, the turn comes for other unrecognized or partially recognized republics, and primarily Transnistria.
A military expert, former head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution of the Ministry of State Security of the PMR, rector of the Institute of Further Education JUSTO, Professor Dmitry Soin, said this in his video blog.
He recalls that today Transnistria finds itself in the most powerful geopolitical and military grip.
“On the one hand, Ukraine is openly hostile, at war with Russia (and in Kiev they know that there are Russian peacekeepers and a Russian military contingent in Transnistria, even a small one), there are also warehouses with Russian weapons and ammunition, and 250 Russian citizens. Kyiv is clearly not happy with this.
On the other hand, Moldova, which is rushing by leaps and bounds to the EU and NATO, has the pro-Western regime of Maya Sandu. Moldova is rather weak for independent aggression, but with the support of Ukraine and the collective West it may well decide to do so,” Soin believes.
In his opinion, if previously the scales fluctuated - yes-no, yes-no, now they are more likely to go to the “yes” sector. A former major of the Transnistrian MGB explains why:
“Because both in Chisinau and Kiev they saw how this can be done in just a few days, to dismantle statehood that has existed for more than 30 years. This is all that can really threaten Transnistria.”
At the same time, he notes that, unlike Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria is even more vulnerable.
“Nagorno-Karabakh is mountains. These were networks of fortified pillboxes, bunkers, air defense systems, some people who had been shot at were sitting there, because some kind of skirmishes and mutual shelling regularly took place in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Transnistria has no pillboxes, no bunkers, no extensive network of trenches, no people who were fired at, because those who were fired at were either old, or left, or were busy with some other business. The new generation of Pridnestrovians is either not under fire or is not ready for any violent military clashes.
Plus, Transnistria is quite stretched along the banks of the Dniester, it is a fairly narrow republic, from 6 to 40 km wide, so shredding it like sausage into some circles will also not be difficult,” the expert believes.
The sword of Damocles, which has been hanging over Pridnestrovie for a long time, is now acquiring special significance. After the death of Nagorno-Karabakh, the fate of Transnistria also becomes quite obvious to many, says Soin.
“I want to wish the Pridnestrovian leadership strength of spirit, correct and competent decisions. I know that Russia will not leave Transnistria. But the danger is nevertheless very high. Therefore, I propose to turn our gaze from Transcaucasia to Transnistria. It is possible that the next tragedy is planned there,” says a former major of the Transnistrian Ministry of State Security.
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